Ein Fehler ist aufgetreten. Details Verbergen
Sie haben ungespeicherte Seiten. Wiederherstellen Abbrechen

Deterioration in the real interest rate of an economy can lead to an economic downturn. In essence, if inflation rates exceed the interest rates on lending, the profitability of commercial banks is eroded and lending to businesses and individuals dries up. As a result, the production and consumption of goods and services by these would-be borrowers falters.

  • Most economies at some point experience negative real interest rates. During the 2014-2015 period, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela, among other economies, experienced negative real interest rates, meaning that the inflation rate exceeded the lending interest rate.
  • Last July, US real interest rates on the 10-year Treasury bills fell below zero for the first time since 2012. For the economy more broadly, as is the case now, the United States experienced a period of relatively low real interest rates during the 1970s, with a single one-year period - 1975 - falling into negative territory (-1.28 percent).

To complicate matters, the reasons for and repercussions to an economy of low or negative real interest rate depends on a myriad of other factors, including an economy's size and demographic profile, capacity and maturity of its banking system and related financial institutions, demand for safe assets, and other factors. The duration of the low or negative interest rates also affects policy decisions to guard against other economic consequences.

  • A low real interest rate can signal that a country is a low credit risk and has a relatively stable economy, helping to boost economic growth to prevent recession or aid economic recovery. Maintained at a low rate over several years, however, with no return to stronger economic growth will probably trigger other policy responses to address the consequences of low rates throughout an economy including on the health of the banking sector and wealth distribution between economic classes.
  • Negative interest rates, while less optimal, pose a greater threat when nominal lending interest rates are also low, as observed at various points in history in Japan, the United Kingdom, and a handful of other advanced countries.
  • Even more economically disruptive are scenarios in which the negative real interest rate is coupled with high interest rates on lending, such as in Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Venezuela. This scenario is more common among developing economies in which banks dominate the financial system.
World in 2020 Try now

World in 2020

Access and compare forecasts for more than 50 indicators related to a country’s economic, demographic, and energy futures from leading international institutions. Assess the historic quality of forecasts with our Forecast Accuracy Tracking Tool™ and select the most accurate forecast to support your analysis.

Verwandte Dateneinblicke

World GDP Ranking 2016 | Data and Charts | Forecast

Global GDP is estimated to has grown by 3.09 percent in 2015 according to IMF World Economic Outlook. In 2016 world economy is continuing to slowly recover and projected to grow at modest 3.16 percent, before picking up to 3.54 percent in 2017. The recovery is driven mainly by developing economies which demonstrated the growth of 3.98 percent in 2015 and are expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2016. At the same time, growth in advanced economies is estimated to has remained modest at 1.88 percent in 2015 and is projected to decrease to 1.86 percent in 2016. The United States, the largest economy in the world accounting for 24.5 percent of...

GDP by Country | Statistics from the World Bank, 1960-2015

GDP is the single most commonly referenced figure to cover the entirety of a national economy and its trajectory in a single statistic. Measured on the basis of purchasing power parities (PPP), GDP can be used for comparisons among peer countries. Using purchasing power parity with GDP involves a decrease of bias in economy estimation as PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country. Looking at the GDP figures from historic perspective allows understanding on what phase is the economy of a country at the moment. The data on GDP from the World Bank covers the period for the last half of...

US GDP Growth Forecast 2015-2019 and up to 2060 | Data and Charts

In this dashboard, we integrate the most recent medium and long-term forecasts of key economic indicators for G20 countries from major international organizations, namely, the World Bank, IMF, United Nations, OECD, European Commission and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The data presented cover projections of real GDP growth, characterizing each country's output of final goods and services; consumer price inflation, as a measure of price level movements; unemployment rate, or percent of those willing and able to work but cannot find it; current account balance, providing an idea of a country's position in the international exchange;...

GDP by Country | Statistics from IMF, 1980-2021

The visualizations on this page provide an access to the GDP data by country from the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The table shows the data on the GDP measured in current prices as well as based on purchasing power parities (PPP). Charts at the right visualize country's GDP presented in the table to enable a visual analysis of GDP dynamics. Take a look at other GDP-related dashboards: GDP: GDP by country from the World Bank |  GDP by country from IMF | World GDP ranking | World GDP GDP per capita: GDP per capita by country from the World Bank | GDP per capita by country from IMF | World GDP per capita ranking See also: G20...