Knoema.com - Viz of the Day http://knoema.de 2024-03-19T10:56:48Z /favicon.png Knoema ist ihre persönliche Wissensdatenbank The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States //knoema.de/fsvntfc/the-world-s-largest-economy-china-vs-united-states 2024-03-19T10:56:48Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The World's Largest Economy: China vs United States

Which is the world's largest economy, China or the United States? As is usual in the field of economics, “It depends.” It depends on the methods used to estimate the size of an economy and to compare one economy to another. Despite modern discussions on refining the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of an economy’s size and performance, to be more inclusive of economic factors that have been ignored to date, such as environmental and natural resource depletion, there is no commonly accepted alternative to GDP. There are, however, at least two commonly used approaches to cross-country comparisons of GDP. Method 1 - Current exchange rates. The GDP of two economies measured in each country’s national currency can be compared by converting the value of each GDP into a common third currency, such as US dollars, based on the current exchange rate. While the more popular approach, it is flawed. Official exchange rates differ from the real value of national currencies because currencies are not only exchanged to buy and sell goods and services in trade but are also used as investment instruments. As investment tools, currency valuations thus fall prey to speculation and irrational expectations of investors versus pure market fundamentals that are the basis for official rates. Example. Based on the current ¥/$ exchange rate, if a bottle of Coca-Cola costs $1 in the United States it would cost ¥6.63 in China. Only, it wouldn't actually cost that much because the real value of the yuan relative to the dollar differs from the official exchange rate. Method 2 - Purchasing power parity. Alternatively, the values of the national currencies of two economies can be converted to a single international currency — known as international dollars — using purchasing power parities (PPPs). PPPs are essentially the currency conversion rates that eliminate differences in price levels between countries and equalize the purchasing power of different countries. It is calculated as the ratio of the price of the same good in different countries in local currencies.  Example. If a bottle of Coca-Cola costs ¥3.5 in China and $1 in the United States then the PPP for Coca-Cola between these countries is ¥3.5/$1 = 3.5. If you calculate the PPP for every good and service produced and average the values, you can calculate the PPP for the GDPs between two countries. Let’s return then to the question of whether the US or China has a larger economy. According to the IMF, in 2019, the PPP between China and the US was ¥3.5 per international dollar. As such, China’s GDP of ¥95.5 trillion would be worth $27.3 trillion in the United States (¥74.6/3.5). That’s $5.9 trillion, or nearly 28 percent, more than the US GDP of $21.4 trillion in 2019. So, to answer the original question, China is the world's largest economy, followed by the United States ... if you compare GDPs based on PPP.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The International Energy Agency Monthly Oil Market Report //knoema.de/kmrvqx/the-international-energy-agency-monthly-oil-market-report 2024-03-19T10:27:59Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The International Energy Agency Monthly Oil Market Report

The monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) from the International Energy Agency provides extensive analysis on world oil market trends as well as projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. Developed from information obtained from the extensive IEA network of contacts with government and industry, it is the only regular, short-term analysis of the global oil industry available and has become an authoritative source for government officials and market and industry strategists alike.Following very strong year-on-year demand growth of 2.2 mb/d in 2Q17, the pace slowed to 1.2 mb/d in 3Q17, reflecting relatively weak July and August data and the impact of hurricanes in September. Our forecast of global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.6 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.4 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.4%).Global oil supply rose 90 kb/d in September to 97.5 mb/d as non-OPEC output edged higher. Output stands 620 kb/d higher than last year. In 2017, non-OPEC supplies are expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d, followed by a 1.5 mb/d increase in 2018.OPEC crude output was virtually unchanged in September as slightly higher flows from Libya and Iraq offset lower supply from Venezuela. Output of 32.65 mb/d was down 400 kb/d on a year ago. Compliance with supply cuts for the year-to-date is 86%.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
United States Coal: Revival or Decline? //knoema.de/qmfwmqc/united-states-coal-revival-or-decline 2024-03-14T10:32:54Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
United States Coal: Revival or Decline?

In March, US President Donald Trump issued the “Energy Independence” executive order, requiring the US Environmental Protection Agency to rewrite the Clean Power Plan, a keystone of former President Obama’s efforts to address climate change. According to experts from the Trump administration, rejecting federal support for alternative energy and delaying the full transition of the US economy to renewable resources will reduce the US budget by approximately 18 percent. According to Trump, his order represents a historic step toward removing restrictions on US energy and abandoning the rules that cut jobs in the industry. Just as the previous administration touted the employment opportunities of green energy development, the Trump administration is tying new growth in the coal industry to future job growth. Under the Obama administration, the US coal industry experienced a perfect storm of regulatory pressure and competition with falling natural gas prices and increasing renewable power generation capacity. During President Obama’s second term from 2012 to 2016, total US coal production declined by more than 25 percent.  In 2016, total production fell to its lowest level in 30 years.  While the executive order may seek to revive the coal industry by allowing development of US coal deposits, the US will face challenges meeting the order’s twin aims for energy self-sufficiency and a zero trade balance. The US will have to compete for market share with other coal producers during a period when forecasts show production of coal globally will outstrip growth in coal consumption. China and the US are both coal giants. For the last 20 years, China has been the world's largest coal producer and consumer, claiming roughly 45 percent of marketed coal annually. The US proved coal reserves, however, exceed 235 billion tonnes, about double China’s proved reserves.According to the latest energy outlook from BP, global coal consumption will grow by roughly 1.5 percent by 2020, yet the supply is expected to outstrip demand by 2035.In addition to potentially contributing to a slump in coal prices, the order flies in the face of science by not only supporting coal but by also lifting restrictions on methane emissions from oil and gas development sites. Methane, like CO2, is a greenhouse gas, which is proven to contribute to global warming.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Unemployment Forecast 2021-2026 | Data and Charts //knoema.de/ennihcf/us-unemployment-forecast-2021-2026-data-and-charts 2024-01-25T13:53:12Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Unemployment Forecast 2021-2026 | Data and Charts

(14 June 2021) In 2020, the US unemployment rate averaged 8.1%, the highest annual rate since 2012. In January and February of last year, the unemployment rate in the United States stood at a 50-year low of 3.5%, but unemployment soared to 14.7% in April 2020 due to mass layoffs resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. US unemployment declined steadily in the second half of last year and has continued a gradual downward trend this spring. In May 2021 it reached 5.8%, which is 56% lower than the year before and equals the unemployment level of 2014. Here are the US unemployment rate projections from the four leading sources:According to the economic projections of the Federal Reserve, the unemployment rate in the US will average at 4.5% by the end of 2021 and pursue its fall in 2022 and 2023, reaching  3.8% and 3.5% levels correspondingly.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the unemployment rate will decrease to 5.8% in 2021 and continue to fall in the following two years, hitting the pre-pandemic level of 3.7% in 2023.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its current Economic Outlook expects the rate of unemployment to drop to 5.6% in 2021 and then remain on a downward trend, falling to 4.3% by 2022.The European Commission in its spring Economic Forecast projects that the US unemployment rate will decline to 4.6% in 2021, and then to 3.4% in 2022, dropping below the unemployment rate before the pandemic. For analysis of other G20 economies, select a country page: US | Canada | Mexico | France | Germany | UK | Italy | Brazil | Argentina | Turkey | Australia | China | India | Japan | South Korea | Indonesia | Russia | South Africa | Saudi Arabia | EU | Euro Area Or, select an economic indicator: GDP Forecast | Inflation Forecast | Unemployment Forecast | Current Account Balance Forecast | Government Debt Forecast

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US State Level Income Inequality //knoema.de/aptxluf/us-state-level-income-inequality 2023-12-30T07:36:44Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US State Level Income Inequality

Rising income inequality in the United States over the past quarter century is well documented. For the vast majority of states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. And the most interesting fact that the rising income inequality has positive correlation with the growth of real personal per capita income. Frank, Mark. W. 2009 "Inequality and Growth in the United States: Evidence from a New State-Level Panel of Income Inequality Measure" Economic Inquiry, Volume 47, Issue 1, Pages 55-68  

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
South Africa's Drought Stricken Sugar Production //knoema.de/nzqktfc/south-africa-s-drought-stricken-sugar-production 2023-12-15T06:59:20Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
South Africa's Drought Stricken Sugar Production

The worst drought to affect South Africa in the last century is further damaging the economic strength of the county's sugar sector. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, South Africa was expected to harvest 1.61 million metric tons of sugar during the 2016/2017 marketing year, a decrease of 5.5 percent from the previous marketing year and the lowest marketed-yield since 1995. Sugar producers are already grappling with competition from cheap imports, forcing some mills to remain closed and reducing employment in the sector.Note: Precipitation amounts less than 0.5 mm have been replaced with "0" values.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Haitian Public Forcing New Approach to Fuel Price Reform //knoema.de/wdtpvnc/haitian-public-forcing-new-approach-to-fuel-price-reform 2023-11-09T13:09:43Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Haitian Public Forcing New Approach to Fuel Price Reform

The Government of Haiti on July 6 imposed price hikes for a variety of fuels, sparking violent protests across the country that cost lives, destroyed property, shut down air traffic, and even caused embassies, business, schools, and other entities to restrict transit and activity in the country. The government increased gasoline prices by 38 percent, kerosene by 51 percent, and diesel by 47 percent.Currently, gasoline costs $0.88 per liter while diesel costs $0.7 per liter, according to Global Petrol Prices. While a relatively low price globally, as one of the world's poorest nations, the rates are still higher than other wealthier countries in the region, such as Trinidad and Tobago, Panama, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Bolivia. Haiti neither produces oil or oil products nor has stocks, making it vulnerable to global price fluctuations. As a result of the violent response to the fuel price changes, the government temporarily suspended the price reform. The measure, which was a part of a reform plan agreed to with the IMF in March, was designed to increase government revenue and support public investment in areas such as health, education, and public safety. Known as a staff-monitored program, this reform was aimed at improving policy implementation to facilitate financial support from other donors, namely $96 million in loans from the Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank, and European Union.Currently, the Haitian budget is in deficit; one of the factors behind the expanding budget deficit—which is expected to be 2.5 percent of GDP in 2018—is fuel subsidies. In 2015, post-tax fuel subsidies were about $0.34 billion and accounted for 3.6 percent of Haitian GDP, according to the IMF.The IMF and the Haitian government plan to revise the fuel reform so that fuel benefits are reduced more gradually and compensatory mitigating measures can be implemented, such as transport vouchers, to protect the most financially vulnerable citizens.The IMF believes that benefits from subsidies that are keeping fuel prices below market level are disproportionately distributed in favor of the wealthy. That is why the IMF suggested reducing fuel benefits in favor of increased social expenditures.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Student Loan Debt Accumulation Showing No Signs of Slowing //knoema.de/wllxncd/us-student-loan-debt-accumulation-showing-no-signs-of-slowing 2023-10-07T17:48:00Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Student Loan Debt Accumulation Showing No Signs of Slowing

(January 19, 2019) Student loans in the United States represent the second largest type of household debt after home mortgages and were not only impervious to the 2009 recession, but are steadily rising along with total US household debt. As of the third quarter of 2018, student debt outstanding expanded by 2.6 percent, reaching a peak of $1.44 trillion, which is higher than total US auto loans and credit card debt.Total student loan debt has more than doubled since 2009 and grown six-fold over the last 15 years. The cumulative value of student loans in default has also increased, jumping almost 90 percent during the last five years to a record $168 billion.  Such rapid debt growth is traced in part to the nature of the benefits of student loan the payments. US federal student loan benefits include fixed interest rates, income-driven repayment plans, and the possibility to postpone or temporarily reduce payments. Student loans can be postponed, temporarily suspended, or reduced as a result of certain life circumstances, such as returning to school, being unemployed, military service, or economic hardship. In addition, undergraduate students who demonstrate financial need may qualify for subsidized loans.As of the fourth quarter of 2018, the 53 million recipients of student loans owed a total of $1.43 trillion, yet only half of these recipients were in active repayment status. In addition, $4.9 billion worth of student loans entered into default status during the fourth quarter. Looking back further, after 2012, the amount of seriously delinquent student loans—more than 90 days overdue—soared, hitting 11.5 percent of aggregate student debt in the third quarter of 2018, the highest value among all household debt types.The options to postpone or temporarily reduce payments has driven a dramatic extension of repayment periods and consequently the accumulation of outstanding debt. According to the US Department of Education, only 38 percent of borrowers who began their secondary educations during the 1995-1996 academic year had paid off all federal loans without default within 20 years. Student loans help nearly two in every 10 American students get an education, the benefits of which cannot be quantified. The rapid growth of outstanding debt coupled with persistent difficulties paying it off, however, not only causes people to delay decisions about buying a house, getting married, and having children, but it also affects government budget sustainability, making this a concern for all Americans, debt carrying or not. Over 90 percent of all student debt is ensured by the US federal government, suggesting that the federal budget will suffer from the consequences of unemployment that contributes to default in addition to the large-scale student loan defaults.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
What Drives Global Crude Oil Prices? //knoema.de/rhikhqf/what-drives-global-crude-oil-prices 2023-08-02T11:42:17Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
What Drives Global Crude Oil Prices?

As part of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, the EIA is moving beyond its traditional coverage of the physical fundamentals of global oil markets to understand global energy prices moments. In addition to assessing factors such as energy consumption, production, inventories, spare production capacity, and geopolitical risks, EIA will now examine other influences, such as futures market trading activity, commodity investment, exchange rates, and equity markets. Today's Viz of the Day describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets. The analysis explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
U.S. Inflation Trends: Like Coffee? Get Ready to Pay More //knoema.de/qemlhre/u-s-inflation-trends-like-coffee-get-ready-to-pay-more 2023-07-30T20:18:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
U.S. Inflation Trends: Like Coffee? Get Ready to Pay More

(19 October 2021) Through June-September of 2021, consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, which was the highest monthly growth rate in the last 12 years. Not all consumer goods were affected by price increases equally. For example, used car and gasoline prices were up 40% year-over-year in July, while consumer coffee prices have only increased by 1% year-over-year. However, the latest commodity market data indicates that millions of Americans will likely be paying more for "the favorite beverage of the civilized world".The price for New York traded Arabica beans increased to an average $2.03 per pound in August 2021 — a 66% increase since the end of 2020.Coffee futures prices have risen on expected coffee crop loss in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee. According to USDA estimates, the severe droughts could reduce the 2020-2021 Brazilian Arabica coffee harvest by 30% compared to the previous market year, and by 23% compared to the 2017-2021 average. Rising sea fright prices also contribute to an increase in coffee costs. Brazil accounts for 40% of Arabica coffee beans production and 27% of global coffee beans exports. Thirty percent of coffee beans imported by the U.S. are supplied from Brazil. Note: Arabica, Coffea arabica, is the world's most popular and widely produced species of coffee, as well as the type most commonly imported into the US. Arabica is grown at higher altitudes and tends to have a sweeter and more nuanced taste. Robusta, Coffea canephora, the other widely-produced species of coffee, has a stronger and harsher taste. It contains twice as much caffeine as arabica, is generally considered to be of inferior quality, and is typically less expensive.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
United States: The World's Newest Major Exporter of Crude Oil //knoema.de/aiinih/united-states-the-world-s-newest-major-exporter-of-crude-oil 2023-07-13T16:48:32Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
United States: The World's Newest Major Exporter of Crude Oil

In June, US crude oil exports reached historic levels at nearly 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d), a level similar to that of Nigeria and Iran. From 1975 until late 2015, a federal ban on the export of US crude oil severely restricted crude oil exports to all countries except Canada. By lifting the ban, the US Government has transformed the United States into a major exporter of crude oil and a force that is reshaping global oil markets. To date in 2018, the United States has averaged more than 1.7 million b/d of crude oil exports while continuing to import an average of 7.9 million b/d.Although Canada remains an important consumer of US crude oil—second only to China—the repeal of the crude oil ban has allowed US exporters to expand to nearly 30 countries.The US shale oil boom in the early years of this decade provided US refiners with high quality, discounted crudes that they were then able to sell into the export market. As a result, finished petroleum product exports have also jumped, increasing from about 1 million b/d prior to the shale boom up to 5.5 million b/d in first half of 2018.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US: Growing Immigration Crisis At Mexican Border //knoema.de/bcfst/us-growing-immigration-crisis-at-mexican-border 2023-06-14T08:51:02Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US: Growing Immigration Crisis At Mexican Border

(January 2023) The rollback of Trump's hardline immigration policies by the Biden-Harris administration and struggling Latin American economies are pushing hundreds of thousands of migrants to cross the US-Mexico border in hope of a better life.According to the latest data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the number of migrant encounters across the U.S. southern border for December 2022 reached a record high of 251,487. Compared to December 2021 number of migrant encounters increased by 72,234. Of the 251,487 border enforcement encounters in December 2022, 14 percent of involved individuals who have been stopped by a U.S. border agent in the previous 12 months. There were a total of 216,162 unique encounters in December 2022, which is an 11 percent increase in the number of unique enforcement encounters from November 2022. The CBP says the increase is “driven largely by an increased number of individuals fleeing authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua.” More than 49,000 of the migrant encounters in December 2022 involved Mexicans, 44,064 involved Cubans, 35,490 involved Nicaraguans, 18,020 involved Colombians, CBP data show. The US is currently home to more than 50 million immigrants, who account for 15% of the US population. About one million immigrants (including over 100 thousand Mexicans) obtain lawful permanent resident status in the US each year.   Note: The encounter statistics in this dataset include both Title 8 and Title 42 enforcement actions by US Customs and Border Patrol. Title 8 enforcement actions refers to apprehensions or inadmissibles processed under CBP’s immigration authority. Inadmissibles refers to individuals encountered at ports of entry who are seeking lawful admission into the United States but are determined to be inadmissible, individuals presenting themselves to seek humanitarian protection under US laws, and individuals who withdraw an application for admission and return to their countries of origin within a short timeframe. Apprehensions refers to the physical control or temporary detainment of a person who is not lawfully in the U.S. which may or may not result in an arrest. Title 42 expulsions refers to individuals encountered by USBP and OFO and expelled to the country of last transit or home country in the interest of public health. To help prevent the introduction of COVID-19 into border facilities and into the United States, persons subject to the Title 42 order will not be held in congregate areas for processing and instead will immediately be expelled to their country of last transit. —US Customs and Border Protection, CBP Enforcement Statistics Fiscal Year 2022 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Energy Transition Puts High Economic Burden on Low-Income Fossil Fuel Exporters //knoema.de/aoolhof/energy-transition-puts-high-economic-burden-on-low-income-fossil-fuel-exporters 2023-05-18T13:06:33Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Energy Transition Puts High Economic Burden on Low-Income Fossil Fuel Exporters

(6 April 2021) With the United States' reentry into the Paris Agreement and the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan that aims to reduce the carbon intensity of the US economy, the global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is gaining momentum. While every nation stands to benefit from prevention of excessive global warming, growth of the green economy can also mean economic losses for many fossil fuel exporters.According to data from the World Bank, today there are more than fifty countries where fossil fuel resource rents contribute to more than 1% of GDP. This list includes the forty largest net fossil fuel exporters. In more than a dozen countries, fossil fuel rents constitute more than 20% of GDP.Since the transition to renewables will reduce global fossil fuel consumption, economies that depend heavily on fossil fuel exports will feel the greatest impact from the loss of resource rent. Fossil fuels exporters with low per capita income are likely to suffer the most because of the lack of resources and human capital to boost investments in new sectors of the economy.The fossil fuel exporters most vulnerable to energy transition are those with GDP per capita of $20 thousand or less and fossil fuel rents exceeding 10% of GDP. This group, which can be found in the upper left of the chart below, consists of fourteen economies: eight African countries (Nigeria, the largest African economy, is among them), Iraq, three former Soviet republics, and Mongolia.Given the persistent political instability in many of these countries, the new climate policy and global energy transition may introduce additional risk for unrest and conflict.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Sentifi | AI-based Monitoring of Market Moving Events //knoema.de/uhzzrug/sentifi-ai-based-monitoring-of-market-moving-events 2023-05-09T04:50:43Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Sentifi | AI-based Monitoring of Market Moving Events

(21 January 2021)  In this dashboard we show an example of risk analysis enabled through the surfacing of events that can negatively impact asset valuation and highlights the sectors, regions, industries and stocks that are most impacted by that event. Investors can then further research the stock to decide whether to decrease their exposure to the asset or exit altogether. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Wages and the Famous Big Mac: How Far Does Your Income Go? //knoema.de/dybnzpe/wages-and-the-famous-big-mac-how-far-does-your-income-go 2023-04-15T10:59:47Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Wages and the Famous Big Mac: How Far Does Your Income Go?

It sounds like a riddle: how many Big Macs for your entire daily wage? Granted, many of our readers may not even have access to a Big Mac where they live (not to mention those who wouldn’t buy Big Macs if they were vegetarian, among other reasons). So, why is the Big Mac Index from the Economist a well-known concept around the world? It’s simple: Big Macs are easier for the overwhelming majority of the world’s population to understand as opposed to economic concepts like “GDP per capita in purchasing power parities,” which is a mouthful and a complicated concept. The answer to the riddle of course depends on many factors, including where you live. In the United States, the home of the Big Mac, the average daily wage would afford you 33 burgers. That’s a lot of burgers. And, yet, in Australia, you could get 40 Big Macs despite the fact that the GDP per capita in the US is roughly $10,000 higher than in Australia.Let’s venture to a lesser developed country with far lower average earnings: Pakistan. In Pakistan, local average daily wages would not even get you two Big Macs. You get the idea. Traditional metrics, like GDP per capita in purchasing power parities (PPPs), may give a sense for the economic well-being of populations but they also require training to interpret: what exactly does it mean, or does it even matter, that the difference in GDP per capita between the US and Australia is $10,000? It would be more straightforward to think in terms of how many goods - Big Macs or otherwise - a person could purchase with his or her wage. In the case of the Big Mac Index, simply divide the average daily earnings of each country’s workers by the local price of a Big Mac, and compare. You’ve now accounted for differences in price levels and mean earnings and you have a measure that is friendlier to interpretation to the masses. What’s lacking?A Big Mac is a single product (good) versus a basket of goods that would better approximate real consumption. No one claims a Big Mac measure should replace traditional metrics such as GDP per capita. Life simply is more complicated than that. We cannot directly compare GDP per capita and the number of Big Macs per day because GDP includes not only compensation of employees, but also net profit of corporations and taxes, for example. But, for today, let’s indulge. In our visualizations below you can examine the economic performance of a variety of countries based on local Big Mac prices as well as traditional economic measures. We’ve also introduced a bit more complexity with the addition of the concept of the relative productivity of workers. In general, as you will see below, workers' Big Mac purchasing power is positively correlated with worker productivity, measured in GDP per employee.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Lumber Prices Surge on Accelerating Demand from Homebuilders and Supply Shortages //knoema.de/rdrdkdc/lumber-prices-surge-on-accelerating-demand-from-homebuilders-and-supply-shortages 2023-04-07T11:12:22Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Lumber Prices Surge on Accelerating Demand from Homebuilders and Supply Shortages

(1 June 2021) In May, lumber futures reached a high of 408% growth year-over-year. Price indices (both consumer and producer) for lumber and wood have also been on an upward trend since summer 2020 in some of the top exporting countries, like Canada, the USA, and Brazil, as well as in other countries like Norway. Lumber price growth was initially caused by fundamental factors such as supply and demand mismatch. It was later reignited by the inflow of speculators into the market. Demand for lumber from the construction industry — reflected in high numbers of building permits and housing starts for single-family units — rose, sparked by low interest rates. At the same time, supply was limited due to sawmill shutdowns and unfavorable weather conditions in 2020.The end users of lumber are homebuilders and truss manufacturers. The major types of lumber are softwood, hardwood, and their derivatives like general millworks, miscellaneous wood products, and prefabricated wood buildings and components. The US Producer Price chart below details how the prices of all of these types increased during the pandemic, with softwood lumber showing the most significant growth.China was the largest lumber importer in 2019, with $47 billion imported, followed by the US and Germany with $25 million and $16 million in lumber imports, respectively.  On the export side, the top spots were filled by the US, Canada, and Germany.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Knoema | Alternative Data US Economic Activity Index //knoema.de/cpkhzig/knoema-alternative-data-us-economic-activity-index 2023-03-24T13:54:02Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Knoema | Alternative Data US Economic Activity Index

(07 July 2021) According to Knoema's Alternative Data US Economic Activity Composite Index—which combines information from the six alternative data indicators displayed below along with the S&P 500 Index—the US recovery stalled in May 2021, not long after $1,400 stimulus checks had been delivered to eligible adults under the third round of federal stimulus aid. As of late June 2021, US economic activity remained about 5 percent lower than it had been in early March of 2021.Credit card spending data and the number of passengers screens by TSA point to a complete recovery in consumer activity. However, the struggling small business sector suggests that the US economy still has a ways to go before reaching full recovery. According to data from Womply, the number of US small businesses open has been on the decline since June 2020; It is currently about 40% lower than the number of small businesses active before the pandemic.Mobility data from Google also suggests recovery is underway but not yet complete, with US retail and recreation movement nearing pre-pandemic levels but movement to and from workplaces still lagging far behind.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Inequality of Global Wealth //knoema.de/ctnwojb/inequality-of-global-wealth 2023-02-03T16:35:12Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Inequality of Global Wealth

In 2016, just 1 percent of the world's population owned more than 50 percent of the world's wealth. According to the data from the Credit Suisse Research Institute, inequlity of world wealth continues to grow every year. The Institute's assessment is based on a global analysis of national wealth—defined as the value of the financial assets plus real estate (housing) owned by the households, less their debts—and use of the Gini Index, a traditional measure of income distribution and, thereby, inequality. As noted in the Institute’s report:About 3.5 billion people—or, 73 percent of the global population—own less than $10,000.Another 900 million people have between $10,000 and $100,000. This group represents the main driver of growth in demand for goods and services.That leaves the 65 million people globally who eacg possess more than $100,000, including 33 million multi-millionaires who control the bulk of global wealth. An increase in wealth inequity can affect the economy of a given nation by reducing the purchasing power of the main drivers of economic growth. Which countries should be put on notice? Many.While the wealth distribution of countries differs widely, the number of US millionaires, the total population of African adults with wealth under $10,000, and the share of wealth represented by the top-1 percent of Russian citizens are especially noteworthy.Based on the Gini Index alone, many countries of central Europe score the best on income equality. Among the world's major economies, Japan scored the best on the Gini Index, however, the share of the country's population with wealth greater tha $100,000 is still seven times the global average.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
30 Years of Reforms in Former USSR: Is the Market Economy Helping? //knoema.de/aiykgj/30-years-of-reforms-in-former-ussr-is-the-market-economy-helping 2023-02-02T21:33:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
30 Years of Reforms in Former USSR: Is the Market Economy Helping?

(15 July 2021) The dissolution of the USSR back in 1991 led to the emergence of 15 independent states, which then began a rapid transition from central planning to a market economy. Without getting into the still-ongoing debate about the collapse of the USSR and the need for this economic transition, let's take a look at the results of 30 years of reforms in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries by the numbers. We took 1990-2019 data for three indicators to estimate the impact of market reforms: gross domestic product (GDP), which shows the strength of the economy; GDP per capita, which is a main indicator of standard of living; and change in population, which shows the ability of a socio-economic system to reproduce human capital. We also examined the relative global economic power of the former USSR countries by measuring how the 15 states' share in world GDP has shifted in the past thirty years.Of the FSU countries, Georgia, Armenia, and the three Baltic states— Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia — have most fully westernized their economies, while Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan have introduced the fewest market-style reforms.The economies of the most FSU countries were larger in 2019 than they had been in 1990, and the standard of living — judging by the GDP per capita — had also improved compared to the Soviet past for 13 of the 15 countries. However, the global economic power of the former USSR countries, measured by share in world GDP, was cut nearly in half — from 9% to 5.3% — between 1990 and 2019.The Baltic states, which integrated into the European Union, have achieved the highest standards of living among FSU countries, based on per-capita GDP. However, the loss of 15% to 28% percent of their populations, which is beyond what can be explained by demographic trends alone, raises questions about these countries' economic achievements.Economic reforms can be considered fully successful in only four Central Asian FSU countries: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. These countries have experienced growth in all three of the indicators we considered. The other 11 countries are characterized by either lower GDP than in 1990, a drop in GDP per capita, or a decreasing population. It’s worth keeping in mind that the FSU countries have not all embraced a market-based economy to the same extent, or implemented reforms at the same pace.  However, a broad comparison of economic data for these states before the collapse of the USSR and 30 years later provides a general sense of how FSU states are faring under economic reforms.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Pressure of Low and Negative Interest Rates //knoema.de/qpxzhwg/the-pressure-of-low-and-negative-interest-rates 2023-01-09T06:22:11Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Pressure of Low and Negative Interest Rates

Central banks around the world are increasingly resorting to more dovish monetary policies against a backdrop of slowing economic growth. Among the 38 central banks tracked by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 21 banks adopted interest rate cuts over the three-month period from July to September, compared to 13 during the same three-month period of 2018.Several advanced economies, including Denmark, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, and the European Central Bank (ECB)-regulated Euro Area, have sustained negative interest rate environments for several years already and the multi-year outlook looks similar, according to the IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report.In September, the ECB proceeded to cut the interest rate on its deposit facility for the first time since 2016, dropping it by 10 basis points to -0.5 percent. The ECB also announced that it would re-launch its asset-buying program beginning 1 November in pursuit of its two percent inflation rate target. Aimed at supporting economic growth and inflation through prompting firms and households to spend more money now (instead of saving), these rates represent a source of risk within the banking sector and to global financial stability as a whole. Negative interest rates force banks to pay money to central banks for keeping their excess funds overnight. Even outside the negative territory, persistently low rates narrow banks' operating margins and can lead to the accumulation of excessive corporate debt.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
How to Predict Recession //knoema.de/zghrxqe/how-to-predict-recession 2023-01-08T16:39:09Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
How to Predict Recession

The analysis of yield curve may well help to predict upcoming economic recession. Yield curve shows how interest rates of debt (usually government bonds) change with the increase of its term to maturity. Usually it is considered by investors that lending money for the long term is more risky than lending for the short term, as it is harder to make any predictions for the longer time horizon, i.e. how the world will change say in 10 years. That is why long-term interest rates are usually higher than the short-term ones. Note, "usually" means “in good times” or when people have somewhat robust expectations about near future. However, when looking to the history we can reveal that before all economic recessions short-term (ST) interest rates became higher than the long-term (LT) ones (the difference between LT and ST is negative). It means that people feel unconfident about economic situation in the near future expecting economic downturn while the in the long term they expect recovery (as it usually occurs in business cycles) and require less rate of return for the long-term investments. So, when you see that ST interest rates become higher than the LT ones you may be almost sure that the economic ression is anywhere near. On the line chart below the difference between monthly interest rates of 10-years US Treasury Bills (long-term) and 1-year US Treasury Bills (short-term) is shown over the time horizon from April 1953 to August 2013.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
China’s Swine Fever Crisis Aftermath //knoema.de/cikcagb/china-s-swine-fever-crisis-aftermath 2023-01-08T13:48:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China’s Swine Fever Crisis Aftermath

(08 July 2021) China’s outbreak of African swine fever back in 2018-2019 hurt domestic pig meat production and provided opportunities for meat* producers around the world to increase exports of pork and other meat to supplement China's diminished domestic supply. The US, the EU, and Brazil have benefited the most from the growing Chinese imports of meat, but some smaller meat exporters that had not traded meat to China before, like Russia and Belarus, also increased their meat exports.The swine fever outbreak wiped out 28% of China's hog population; pork production in China declined by 15 million tons in 2018-2020, which is equivalent of 17% of the country's domestic meat consumption. From 2018 to 2020, producer prices for pig meat in China increased by 52%.China's meat imports have increased by 2.8 times, from 3 million tons in 2018 to 8.3 million tons in 2020, according to UN Comtrade. The EU, Brazil, and the US increased shipments to China by more than one million tons each during 2018-2020, supplying over 70% of the new demand from China.Increased meat imports and domestic supply of other meat categories have not fully compensated for the decrease in China's domestic pig meat production. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects that the the country's meat consumption and production levels will not recover before 2024. Note: Meat includes beef, pork, poultry and sheep meat.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Knoema | U.S. CPI Inflation Expected to Ease in June According to High-Frequency Indicators //knoema.de/kejkcy/knoema-u-s-cpi-inflation-expected-to-ease-in-june-according-to-high-frequency-indicators 2023-01-02T05:39:26Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Knoema | U.S. CPI Inflation Expected to Ease in June According to High-Frequency Indicators

(11 June 2021) According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose sharply agin in May to 5.0% year-over-year, going well above the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Based on data for the first eleven days of June, Knoema's U.S. CPI Inflation Index — which combines data from four high-frequency indicators — points that consumer price inflation is expected to ease in June 2021 on a year-over-year basis.   Note: Knoema's U.S. CPI Inflation Index is designed to predict the potential change in direction of the U.S. CPI year-over-year growth rate and should not be regarded as a CPI forecast.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China: Is Pork a Barrier to Economic Stimulus? //knoema.de/lzsappb/china-is-pork-a-barrier-to-economic-stimulus 2022-12-29T05:48:01Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
China: Is Pork a Barrier to Economic Stimulus?

(September 2019)  Pork prices in China have increased 82 percent over the last year, presenting an unconventional potential threat to the monetary easing policy Beijing announced earlier this month.​ According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, the growth rate of pork prices is accelerating: before this month's wild increase, the average price of pork jumped 19.3 percent year-on-year in July and 47.6 percent in August as the African swine flu ​outbreak ​further diminished pig stocks to only 39 percent of the​ inventory one year ago.Prices for other meats​,​ such as beef and lamb​,​ have also​ increas​​​​​ed this year—though to ​lesser extent than pork—contributing to ​an increase in the ​overall consumer price index for meat ​by ​11 percent year-over-year in August, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Growing meat prices, together with fresh fruits and vegetables, ​also ​contributed to​ inflation of the​ ​broader food price ​index​, which recorded a six percent year-over-year​ increase​. Pig meat is one of the most important foods in ​the​ daily diet of people living in China​,​ accounting for ​12 percent (about ​368 kilocalories​) of ​each person's ​daily energy intake​,​ according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. T​o meet this consumption demand, China produces around 54 million tonnes of pork annually​, which is five times more than the US, the second largest producer of pork globally. ​While ​Chinese domestic supply of pork relies primarily on domestic production, ​​the swine flu will force China to turn to other suppliers, such as Spain, Germany, Canada, and (potentially, despite the trade war) the United States.   Rising pork prices ​have had a negligible effect on overall consumer price inflation to date​, which remained stable at 2.8 percent in August.​ The threat to China's economy comes from the unabated and accelerated growth rate in pork prices in tandem with the central bank's implementation of new policy measures effective September 16 to support monetary easing. The People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to support the slowing Chinese economy. Lower reserve requirements will enable increased lending to businesses and households, reducing borrowing costs, and (if all goes to plan) stimulating more investment. But on the flip side of more investment is ... rising inflation, which given current pressures, may accelerate beyond the Bank's targets.  

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Global Retirement Index: Today's Best Countries for Retirement //knoema.de/mkbuxzc/the-global-retirement-index-today-s-best-countries-for-retirement 2022-12-27T19:43:56Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Global Retirement Index: Today's Best Countries for Retirement

(December 2022) You sometimes hear, “Oh, to be young,” and there is merit to that sentiment depending on where you live out your retirement years. Retirement security is not an issue weighing on individuals alone. It is among the top social issues globally because of a simple fact: the world’s population is getting older. According to the World Bank, the share of people aged 65 and older will double by 2050 to reach 1.6 billion. Societies must grapple with how to ensure people have the resources and services to support themselves through retirement. The Natixis Global Retirement Index (GRI) evaluates 18 performance indicators to provide an in-depth look at four aspects of standard of living in retirement, namely: the material well-being or comfort of living, access to quality health services, access to quality financial services, and a clean and safe living environment. This index is calculated based on data for 44 countries: IMF advanced economies, members of the OECD, and the BRIC countries.According to Natixis’ Index, the top 3 countries by retirement security attractiveness of 2022 are Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland, unchanged from the previous year. Norway won the top in spot because of its high performance in all sub-indices. Norway’s lowest sub-index score was in finance with a score of 69% on a scale from 0-100%, where 100% represents the most favorable environment to retirement security.Ireland, Australia, and Luxembourg have high index scores despite relatively lower positions in finance because of strong performance in healthcare and quality of life dimensions.The BRIC countries scored poorly on the GRI. BRIC countries were the lowest scoring among ranked countries on governance, one of the most important indicators in the finance sub-index calculation.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Rise in Global Inflation Threatens World Economy //knoema.de/mofqrgf/the-rise-in-global-inflation-threatens-world-economy 2022-12-19T16:04:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Rise in Global Inflation Threatens World Economy

The latest data on inflation from the World Bank shows that global inflation continues to accelerate. In May 2022, the world consumer price index (CPI) growth accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year. The last time year-over-year global inflation approached 8% was in 2008, when the world economy was stepping in the Great Recession. Knoema's global inflation heat map, based on the World Bank data, reveals the spread of inflation to more and more countries each month. In Dec 2019, among 107 countries in the World Bank's dataset, there were only 5 countries where year-over-year CPI growth exceeded 10%, and 21 economies where CPI growth ranged between 4% and 10%.By May 2022 the number of countries with year-over-year CPI growth above 10% had increased to 39, and the number of countries with CPI growth between 4% and 10% had reached 54.Due to high commodity prices the potential for cost-push inflation still remains high. For example, in May 2022 global CPI was 16.4% higher than it had been in May 2019. For the same period, prices for energy and non-energy commodities — the raw materials and energy used in production — increased by 88.9% and 64.4%, respectively.The downward trend in commodity prices since mid-June 2022, especially declining prices for copper, may indicate that high inflation is already hitting the global economy.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Europe Gas Price Puzzle: Temperature, Wind Speed and Gas Storage //knoema.de/bjglesg/europe-gas-price-puzzle-temperature-wind-speed-and-gas-storage 2022-12-19T11:33:43Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Europe Gas Price Puzzle: Temperature, Wind Speed and Gas Storage

(10 November 2021) A mismatch between natural gas demand and supply in Europe has pushed natural gas spot prices to record highs. In this dashboard we put together data on four key short-term indicators that will shape natural gas prices in Europe this winter: air temperature; wind speed in the North Sea; volume of natural gas in storage; and industrial production.Air temperature determines how much energy is needed to heat/cool down homes and buildings in winter/summer.Wind speed in the North Sea determines the amount of electricity generated by wind turbines.Volume of natural gas in storage shows current availability of natural gas in inventories.Industrial production indicates changes in demand for energy in the real sector.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Why are Oil Stocks Falling Behind Oil Prices? //knoema.de/sipjvbd/why-are-oil-stocks-falling-behind-oil-prices 2022-12-10T11:54:47Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Why are Oil Stocks Falling Behind Oil Prices?

(September 10, 2021) Oil prices demonstrated significant growth in 2021, reaching pre-COVID levels as a result of positive expectations about economic recovery. For the same reason, oil stocks also demonstrated strong growth this year, but not to the same extent; the financial results of a number of the world's top oil companies are still not where they were in the pre-COVID-19 period, and energy sector exchange-traded fund prices have yet to reach 2019 levels. A number of factors are preventing oil stocks from keeping up with oil prices.Oil prices rose mostly due to rising costs, not to increased margin. For example, ocean freight rates increased fourfold over the last year. The deficit in the oil market, supported by supply restrictions by OPEC, is expected to turn to a surplus since an agreement to remove all oil and shipping sanctions has been achieved between Iran and the US. The oil sector, like that of other commodities, is pro-cyclical, meaning that it grows when the economy expands as indicated by growing inflation. This is what we saw this summer when US inflation was at its peak. However, the market expects inflation growth to cool down, resulting in the oil sector losing its short-term rising power. Developed countries are making a gradual transition to a green economy. The data on electricity installed capacity demonstrates a growing share of renewable energy in all regions, excluding OPEC. BP forecasts declining oil consumption and growing renewable energy consumption in all scenarios by 2050. OPEC in its forecast predicts that oil demand will start declining in 2040.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Coronavirus Prefers Republican States //knoema.de/zukszog/coronavirus-prefers-republican-states 2022-12-06T10:28:53Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Coronavirus Prefers Republican States

(10 August 2020)  Right after the Department of Health and Human Services in Washington D.C. took control over direct reporting of COVID-19 statistics, the second wave of the pandemic started to fade in the United States. Whether the altered trend reflects changes in methodology behind COVID-19 data, natural abatement, or renewal of anti-covid restrictions in many US states, one fact is beyond a doubt: republican strong-hold states experienced a significantly stronger second wave of COVID-19.The latest polls from FiveThirtyEight and case data from the COVID Tracker Project show that all US states for which Trump has an advantage over Biden along with so-called swing states—like Arizona, Florida, and Georgia—experienced a strong second wave of the pandemic in July. In 11 states where Democrats have the advantage, either the second wave was held off or the number of daily COVID-19 cases in July was much lower than in the April to May timeframe.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Tracking US Inflation: Is the Worst Behind Us or Still to Come? //knoema.de/dxcpbtb/tracking-us-inflation-is-the-worst-behind-us-or-still-to-come 2022-11-27T07:01:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Tracking US Inflation: Is the Worst Behind Us or Still to Come?

(27 September 2021) The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that inflation in the U.S. is slowing down. In August, the consumer price index (CPI) decelerated to a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to 0.7% to 0.9% monthly increases in April through June.  The highest inflation has been concentrated among only a small number of categories of consumer goods and services. Prices for used cars and rental cars jumped amid supply chain disruptions and strong demand. Motor fuel prices increased, following world oil prices. And prices for plane tickets rose with the recovery of air traffic. The latest BLS data points to easing of these trends. Nevertheless, the worst may still be ahead.The decrease in used car, car rental and airfare prices in August was mostly driven by the new COVID wave. Such near-real-time indicators as Apple's driving mobility index and the number of travelers screened at TSA checkpoints confirm an overall decrease in mobility through August and the first half of September. Once the current COVID surge subsides, price trends may reverse.While used car pricing received the most attention, prices for many other consumer categories are growing at a rate of more than 2% per year. A U.S. CPI heat map that highlights price trends for 26 major commodity and services categories shows only five categories had price gains less than 2% year-over-year. And for 50% of the categories, prices increased more than 4% year-over-year. Some indirect indicators also point to growing inflation pressure. According to the National Federation of Independent Business's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been growing since February 2021. The observed price hikes at small businesses may point to further inflation acceleration in the coming months.Though the U.S. Federal Reserve announced recently that it is going to moderate the pace of asset purchases soon, which could slow inflation, so far it continues to inject new money into the economy to boost demand. In addition to the 2020 $3.2 trillion stimulus package, the Federal Reserve purchased U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities worth $1.1 trillion in Jan.–Sept. 2021. U.S. consumers are currently anticipating inflation levels closer to 4% in the mid-term, and vague statements from the Fed may not be enough to anchor inflation expectations.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Womply | “Reopened” Too Soon? US Restaurant and Bar Sales Plummet Once More //knoema.de/ajwnbbd/womply-reopened-too-soon-us-restaurant-and-bar-sales-plummet-once-more 2022-11-25T06:46:59Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Womply | “Reopened” Too Soon? US Restaurant and Bar Sales Plummet Once More

(7 August 2020) The impact of the global coronavirus pandemic has been widespread and multifaceted. For American small businesses, shutdowns and COVID-driven changes in consumer spending habits have had dramatic and lingering effects across multiple industries. One of the first areas to be particularly hurt by the coronavirus was restaurants and bars. Chinese food restaurants showed significant downturns in revenue early on, well before other types of restaurants, and well before government-mandated shutdowns. Other restaurants and bars nationwide have been impacted severely, as bars were among the first businesses to be shut down completely by law during the first weeks of the pandemic. Restaurants in most areas were completely closed as well, but have gradually been adapting to a lessening in restrictions, allowing takeout/delivery/curbside service, limited dine-in service with special distancing requirements, etc. Using data provided by Womply we will examine how bars and restaurants across the country have been impacted by the initial lockdown and social anxieties related to COVID-19, and how they have fared as the restrictions were gradually lifted. Now, as coronavirus cases have risen throughout the country, we will also look at whether restaurants and bars have suffered as many areas are tightening restrictions once more.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US-China AI Competition | Who is Winning? //knoema.de/sxovfdc/us-china-ai-competition-who-is-winning 2022-11-22T13:56:11Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US-China AI Competition | Who is Winning?

(November 2022) According to the latest Artificial Intelligence (AI) Index Report by Stanford University, in 2021 China continued to lead the world in the number of AI journal, conference, and repository publications—63.2% higher than the United States with all three publication types combined. Another fact from the UN: due to rapid economic expansion and information and communications technology (ICT) investment growth in recent decades, China's ICT sector today is almost as big as the ICT sector in the US. The question that is raised by these trends is — where is China in the AI race with the US?Why AI? AI, as the core component of the modern economy based on digital platforms, is becoming the key factor of global competitiveness. The more efficient the AI component, the more added value a digital platform can generate.Besides AI journal publications and citations, the US still outpaces China in AI-funding-related indicators. For example, in 2021 the annual private US AI investment exceeded private AI investment in China by 207%.In a broader context, the R&D (research and development) investment in the digital sector by US companies exceeds China's R&D investment in the digital sector by 237%. And today there are only two Chinese companies, compared with seven US companies, among the companies worldwide that invest more than $6 billion in the digital sector each year. Given its faster long-term economic growth, China has the potential to gradually change the balance of global AI power. However, it is highly unlikely that China or any other country will equal the US in AI potential in the near future.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Cost of Oil Production by Country //knoema.de/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country 2022-10-26T06:18:11Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Cost of Oil Production by Country

(Oct 2018) Global oil prices have fallen by more than 30 percent since the summer of 2014, affecting oil producers and consumers alike. This dashboard presents oil price dynamics and the breakeven oil prices—minimum oil price to cover general government expenditures—over the past decade as well as a snapshot of the marginal cost of oil production by country in 2014. A world oil price in the range of $55 to $60 per barrel is less than the cost of Russian Arctic oil production, European and Brazilian biofuel production, US and Canadian shale and tight oil production, and Brazilian presalt oil production. Sustained price levels below the cost of production can deter exploration and production and shift production potential for years to come. State budgets of oil-producing countries suffer as oil prices dip below their respective breakeven prices. In December 2014, the world experienced just that as world oil prices fell below breakeven for almost all oil exporters.     See also: Crude Oil Price Forecast 

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
IMF October 2021 Outlook | Robust Expansion Despite Rising Inflation //knoema.de/hftinad/imf-october-2021-outlook-robust-expansion-despite-rising-inflation 2022-10-15T15:45:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
IMF October 2021 Outlook | Robust Expansion Despite Rising Inflation

(14 October 2021) The mid-term prospects for the development of the global economy look promising — the International Monetary Fund projects that almost 6% global GDP growth in 2021 and almost 5% growth in 2022 will be followed with annual growth above 3% in 2023 through 2026. However, uncertainty around inflation pressure and the pandemic situation are considered major risks for global growth. Here are the key takeaways from the October 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:October 2021 global growth projections by the IMF were nearly unchanged from the summer outlook. The global GDP growth estimate for 2021 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.9%, underlining the negative impact of global supply chain disruptions and worsening pandemic dynamics. The forecast for 2022 global growth is unchanged, at 4.9%.Looking into 2022, the IMF expects that commodity prices will stay at 2021 levels, while global food prices will see further increases.In addition to commodity prices staying high, CPI inflation is expected to accelerate. In 2021–2022, the IMF anticipates annual CPI growth over 4% in more than 70 countries, compared to 54 countries in 2020 (out of 190 countries in the IMF's WEO Outlook database).So far, the IMF considers the recent increases in inflation rates in the US, Europe, and many developing economies to be driven by temporary pandemic-induced supply-demand mismatches. The inflation pressure is expected to subside in 2022, though uncertainty around inflation prospects remains high.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
IMF Global Growth Projections | More Optimism Amidst New Fiscal Stimulus //knoema.de/oaevdfg/imf-global-growth-projections-more-optimism-amidst-new-fiscal-stimulus 2022-10-15T15:45:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
IMF Global Growth Projections | More Optimism Amidst New Fiscal Stimulus

(8 April 2021) Amid COVID-19 vaccination progress and new stimulus measures from the US government, IMF economists are predicting a shining near-term future for the global economy. Here are the key takeaways from the April 2021 edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report:The IMF now estimates 2020 growth to have been -3.3 percent, a 1.1 percentage point upward revision from its October 2020 projection. The outlook for 2021 improved by 0.8 percentage points, to 6%, based on expected additional fiscal support in the US and other large economies and anticipated vaccination progress.The IMF continues to emphasize the unusually large uncertainty surrounding its baseline projection due to unknowns regarding the path of pandemic recovery and the efficacy of government policies and support measures.The IMF projects that the US and Japan will not only return to pre-COVID economic growth trajectories between 2022 and 2023, but also demonstrate a better growth performance after the recovery than predicted in pre-COVID estimates. Other top world economies are expected to return to pre-COVID economic growth trajectories between 2021 and 2022, falling only 1.5% short of their pre-COVID baselines by 2024. India is the exception; the IMF forecasts a growth gap of 11% below pre-COVID projections by 2024.In the global ranking of countries by economy size, the main shift in 2021 compared to pre-COVID 2019 is the emergence of Taiwan as the 19th largest economy. Successful containment of coronavirus and strong global demand for electronics and semiconductors boosted the country's economic growth during the pandemic. The IMF expects Thailand, which has been hit hard by the global tourism industry crisis, to drop out of the world's 20 largest economies list.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Chile's Socio-Economic Disparities Exposed by Weeks of Protests //knoema.de/eaiwmhf/chile-s-socio-economic-disparities-exposed-by-weeks-of-protests 2022-10-13T16:56:01Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Chile's Socio-Economic Disparities Exposed by Weeks of Protests

A policy decision to increase public transport fares in Chile earlier this month triggered nearly two weeks of mass protests across Chile's largest cities, including the capital city of Santiago. While Chilean President Sebastián Piñera last week announced economic reforms to bring peace to the country - raising pensions, monthly minimum wages, and taxes on the wealthy - the socio-economic deficits of the country have been exposed and the youth mobilized. Prosperity for Chile is real and measurable ... At the end of the 20th century, Chile carried out radical economic reforms. Through the fostering of private entrepreneurship, the rejection of protectionism, the reduction of state regulation and other measures, the Chilean government managed to perform a policy "miracle" in the shortest possible timeframe. Today, Chile is the most prosperous country in South America and is classified by the OECD as a "developed economy" based on its gross national income per capita and high human development index score.  ... but it is not universal. Despite outstanding general economic results, Chile continues to struggle with a variety of socio-economic problems, including the highest level of economic inequality among developed countries, a high level of dissatisfaction with health care and education services, and a troublesome marriage of high cost of living and one of the lowest minimum wage levels among OECD countries. Chile's socio-economic shortfalls resonate especially deeply among the country's youth as they have never lived under a poor economy with a dictatorial regime and compare today's Chile with economic opportunities in other developed countries. The question now is how far and how fast will reforms come to the population that was mobilized by what the government now acknowledges was a poorly implemented policy adjustment.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US-Russia Summit | Negotiations From A Position of Strength Or Seeking A Compromise //knoema.de/qcwqjkb/us-russia-summit-negotiations-from-a-position-of-strength-or-seeking-a-compromise 2022-10-13T16:40:39Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US-Russia Summit | Negotiations From A Position of Strength Or Seeking A Compromise

(15 June 2021) On June 16, the meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia will take place in Geneva. This will be the first in-person meeting of the US and Russian presidents since 2019. It can be said without exaggeration that the results of the US-Russia summit will determine the state of the global order for many years ahead (at least till 2024, the year of the next presidential elections in the United States and Russia). So the main question about the summit is, Will the United States and Russia find common ground and begin to work out ways to compromise on key issues of global development, or will the economic, political, and military confrontation between the two countries continue? In this dashboard we summarize and compare the key indicators of the two countries' power backing their negotiation positions. These powers include economic strength, innovation, military, energy, and human powers. The comparison between two countries is not encouraging.  Since the United States' power in all key areas (with the exception of nuclear weapons) significantly exceeds the power of Russia, it is unlikely that the United States will be willing to discontinue its policy of pressuring Russia.The mutual economic ties between the two countries (measured by value of bilateral trade in goods compared to total trade in goods) are also too small to constitute the basis for building stable relationships.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Most Reputable Countries in the World //knoema.de/axgsdxc/the-most-reputable-countries-in-the-world 2022-10-11T15:36:16Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Most Reputable Countries in the World

In 2016, the Reputation Institute ranked Sweden, Canada, and Switzerland as the most reputable countries in the world. The Institute's ranking is based on the collective opinions of 48,000 people surveyed throughout the G8* countries. According to the Reputation Institute, a country has a strong reputation if people perceive the country as having an advanced economy, appealing environment, and effective government or admire, trust, or feel esteem toward the country. These perceptions and feelings are based on people's direct experience, stereotypes, and the country's actions.Positive experience and stereotypes are the result of a country's performance across social, political, and economic spheres. Nine of the 10 most reputable countries are considered to be among the happiest nations in the world; eight of the 10 have the highest social progress and lowest corruption levels worldwide; and six of the 10 score highest on transparency in the media ratings.Top ranked Sweden has the highest ratings worldwide on press freedom, environmental performance, and gender equality. As for other top ranking countries, Canada is rated high in social progress, Switzerland in happiness, and Australia in peace. Once achieved, intangible respect has quite a tangible economic effect for a country. Researchers from the Reputation Institute claim that the country's reputation affects positively its tourism, exports, foreign investment, and inflow of high-skilled workers.Ireland, Switzerland, and the Netherlands appear to be evidence of this relationship. Each is among the top 10 countries worldwide by value of exports and foreign direct investment per capita.New Zealand, Switzerland, and Norway are among the top ranked countries by employment of foreign-born populations with high educational attainment. * The G8 countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Commodities | Data and Charts //knoema.de/pksmllg/commodities-data-and-charts 2022-10-07T10:27:12Z Dharani M knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1007220
Commodities | Data and Charts

Dharani M knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1007220
Copper Price Forecast: 2021, 2022, and Long Term to 2035 //knoema.de/prujshc/copper-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2035 2022-09-04T09:08:21Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Copper Price Forecast: 2021, 2022, and Long Term to 2035

(23 May 2021) Copper prices reached an all-time high of $10,512 per metric ton on May 9, marking a 130% growth since March 22, 2020. The consensus forecast from three leading sources (IMF, World Bank, and the Australian Government) for 2021 is $8,357. The average year-to-date price as of May 20 was $8,915, which means the forecasts do not reflect an expectation of further increases over the second half of the year. The copper price growth over the course of the past year was driven primarily by the high demand from China, the top copper consumer, as well as growing optimism about the overall economic recovery in view of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. The demand for copper is expected to rise further amid rising concerns about low copper inventories. Copper is the most widely used metal in energy generation, transmission infrastructure, and energy storage. It is the next most used metal after aluminum and steel in the construction, telecommunications, transportation, and automobile manufacturing sectors. Here are the copper price forecasts issued by each of the leading international agencies:The World Bank estimated in its commodity forecast report that the spot price for copper will average $8,500 per metric ton by the end of 2021. The price is expected to decrease to $7,500 in 2022 and then grow to $8,250 by 2035. The IMF projects the growth of the copper price from an average of $6,174 per metric ton in 2020 to $8,313 in 2021, followed by a gradual decline to $7,600 per metric ton by 2026.The Department of Industry, Science, Energy, and Resources of Australia also expects the price of copper to rise sharply to $8,257 in 2021, with a slight decrease to $7,724 in the following two years and consequent growth to $8,876 by 2026.   Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | aluminium | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Aluminum Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2035 //knoema.de/ffzioof/aluminum-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2035 2022-07-29T08:26:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Aluminum Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2035

(9 June 2021) The aluminum price reached the value of $2,534 per metric ton on May 7th of this year, the highest price since the two-year high in April 2018. The consensus forecast for 2021 from three leading sources (the IMF, the World Bank, and Innovation and Science Australia, an advisory board to the Australian government) is $2,072 per metric ton. The rise in aluminum prices is a result of high demand in China and growing concerns that China's new climate policy, which focuses on greenhouse gas emissions reduction, could limit future supply of the metal. In 2020, China accounted for 56% of all refined aluminum production. Steadily increasing demand could see the global aluminum market tighten into a deficit. The production of aluminum is a highly energy-intensive process, and despite energy efficiency improvements in China in recent decades, the process remains highly carbon-intensive: more than 80% of China's aluminum is produced using coal-fired power. The leading sources' aluminum price forecasts are as follows:According to the World Bank, the aluminum price will increase to $2,000 per metric ton (t) in 2021, a 17% rise from an average of $1,703/t in 2020, and experience moderate growth to $2,050/t in 2022. By 2035, the World Bank predicts aluminum prices will reach $2,400/t.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that aluminum prices will rise to $2,083/t in 2021 — a jump of 22% over the previous year, the largest predicted increase among the three forecasts — and to $2,126/t in 2022. The long-term IMF projection is that the price of aluminum will reach $2,276/t in 2026. Innovation and Science Australia (ISA) predicts that the price of aluminum will grow to $2,134/t in 2021 and to $2,160/t in 2022, the highest growth forecast by any of the three organizations. For their forecasts, both World Bank and the IMF use London Metal Exchange (LME) settlement prices for high-grade unalloyed primary ingots of 99.7% purity.   Price forecasts for other critical commodities:  gold | silver | copper | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Zinc Prices Forecast: Long Term 2018 to 2030 | Data and Charts //knoema.de/ftmgyvg/zinc-prices-forecast-long-term-2018-to-2030-data-and-charts 2022-07-22T08:07:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Zinc Prices Forecast: Long Term 2018 to 2030 | Data and Charts

(28 June 2021) Zinc prices showed 50% growth year-over-year in May 2021, an increase to $2,965 per metric ton from $1,975 in May 2020. The increase followed a two-year decline of 45% from the ten-year high of $3,500 in 2018. The price is currently 11.5% above the 5-year moving average — a figure analysts were not expecting, since zinc demand is declining in the era of COVID-19. Several key supply and demand drivers are playing a role. The upward price drivers are as follows: Disruption of zinc concentrate supplies due to the suspension of large zinc mines as a result of the COVID-19 pandemicPersistent environmental restrictions in China and mine closures and disruptions in other countriesRecovery of zinc consumption levels in China, the US, and other countries due to rebounding construction levels. China has been implementing a number of infrastructure projects such as construction of railways, airports, and metro lines. And the downward price drivers: Transition of the world zinc market from deficit to surplus; according to investingnews estimates, the surplus of zinc in the world market in 2021 may amount to about 400 thousand tonsRecovery of mining at large zinc mines in Peru, Mexico, and Bolivia, among other countries Increase in zinc mining and production in China due to the gradual replacement and modernization of old zinc-smelting facilities in order to meet new environmental standards.  Zinc price predictions from the leading international agencies for the next few years are as follows:The World Bank in its commodity forecast report estimated that the average spot price for zinc will fall to $2,400 per metric ton (t) in 2022, down from $2,700/t at the end of 2021. After that, a slow growth period will start.The IMF's report indicated a completely different expectation: a rise from $2,828/t in the end of 2021 to $2,859 in 2022. For the following period, IMF experts expect a smooth, gradual decline. They predict the price will drop to $2,818/t by 2026.The forecast from Industry Innovation and Science Australia (IISA) is more similar to the World Bank's predictions: they expect a decrease in the zinc spot price from $2,686 at the end of 2021 to $2,362 in 2022, with further slow increase through 2026. Dive deeper into historical commodity prices from the World Bank and IMF, or explore commodity price forecasts. You can also explore a variety of other critical commodities with Knoema, including: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas | crude oil   As you examine commodity prices and forecasts, you may also be interested in economic forecasts for the G20 countries across the following indicators: GDP growth | inflation | unemployment | government debt | current account balance | external debt.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Natural Gas Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2050 //knoema.de/ncszerf/natural-gas-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2050 2022-05-29T18:28:16Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Natural Gas Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2050

(15 June 2021) The US natural gas spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana — the benchmark price reference for the US natural gas market and an important price reference in global gas trading — will average $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021, a 51% increase from the 2020 average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency attributes this year's price growth to rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increasing domestic natural gas consumption outside of the power sector. In 2022, Henry Hub prices are expected to decrease to $2.93/MMBtu due to slowing growth in LNG exports and rising US natural gas production. The World Bank, in its Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasts US natural gas prices to remain close to current levels over the rest of 2021, averaging $2.80/MMBtu, which marks a 39% rebound from 2020. The report cites global economic recovery, cold weather, and supply disruptions as the main drivers of the rebound in prices this year. The World Bank expects the other two benchmarks, European and Japanese natural gas import prices, to show different dynamics in 2021, with a steeper increase in European prices and a small decline in Japanese prices. The consensus forecast for 2021 from the four leading sources — EIA, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the Canadian Government — is $2.81/MMBtu, which is 39% higher than in 2020. See the charts below to compare forecasts from different sources and analyze supply and demand forces. Natural gas is widely used in energy generation, transportation, commercial, and household sectors, as well as in energy-intensive industries such as chemical, iron and steel manufacturing. The United States, Europe, Russia, and China, the top four natural gas consumers, together accounted for 53% of global consumption in 2019.   Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | crude oil 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Automotive Industry Overview | Data and Analysis //knoema.de/gdwntfe/global-automotive-industry-overview-data-and-analysis 2022-05-26T09:01:21Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Global Automotive Industry Overview | Data and Analysis

(12 May 2021) In 2020, worldwide motor vehicle production fell sharply, dropping 15.4% from the previous year, because of travel restriction measures and an overall decline in economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Passenger cars experienced a more significant drop in production than commercial vehicles, with decreases of 16.9% and 11.6%, respectively. This marks the third consecutive year with negative growth in global automotive vehicle production. In contrast, global electric vehicle (EV) sales increased 39% in 2020, to 3.2 million units, boosting the total global EV stock to 11.3 million units.The latest statistics from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers reveal a major decline in production across all manufacturing regions, with the most significant decreases in Latin America (24.8%), Western Europe (24%), and North America (20.3%).Vehicle sales data show a similar story, with 2020 passenger cars sales registering a year-on-year 15.9% drop and commercial vehicle sales dropping a less devastating 8.7%. In some world regions, passenger car sales decreased by more than 20% from 2019 levels; these include Latin America (down 29.3%), the NAFTA region (28.9%), Africa (24.7%), and Western Europe (21.1%).Export trade also suffered a blow from 2020 coronavirus restrictions aiming to slow down the virus's spread. Motor vehicle exports came to an almost complete standstill in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East, where yearly vehicle export totals were more than 97% below their 2019 levels. Other regions experienced export decreases of 40–50%.Against the backdrop of an overall motor vehicle market contraction in 2020, exports and sales in the global EV market registered lucrative growth. Global EV sales have accelerated by 39% in comparison to 2019, while EV export trade increased by 18%. Germany now ranks second in EV sales, after China, overtaking the United States in 2020. Norway was the top country by electric vehicle sales share, with 75% of cars sold in the country being electric, followed by Sweden (32%), Netherlands (25%), and Denmark (16%). 

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Time spent on free time activities //knoema.de/hjuojjd/time-spent-on-free-time-activities 2022-05-12T13:25:07Z Alina Buzanakova knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1293450
Time spent on free time activities

21 October 2015 - If life seems more rushed than ever, you might be surprised to learn that we actually have more leisure time than we did 40 years ago, and quite a bit more. So why does it feel like we have so much less? It might be because we waste half of all our leisure time watching television. Globally, people devote more than 2.5 hours a day to viewing television programs despite the diversity of leisure options.  How people spend their leisure time has significantly changed and is evident even in the short period from 2003-2015 captured in the visualizations below. Men and women spend no more than one hour a day on sport activities, with men spending significantly more time on sports. Uniformly, people are spending less time reading. And as for the classic carefree afternoon teas or nights out with friends, people are spending slightly less time socializing. Discover more information on how people spend their free time through the source:  Time spent on free time activities, by sex.

Alina Buzanakova knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1293450
Is NATO the Financial Burden of the US? //knoema.de/larytbg/is-nato-the-financial-burden-of-the-us 2022-05-06T12:34:48Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Is NATO the Financial Burden of the US?

In July, after the NATO summit in Brussels, US President Donald Trump tweeted that "the United States is spending far more on NATO than any other country. This is not fair, nor is it acceptable." But, is the US spending more on NATO than other members? And, if so, is the US spending level unfair relative to that which the US—and the other 28 members—have agreed? Let's look at the data. Measure 1: Defense Expenditures. In 2018,* the US will spend an estimated $706 billion on defense globally. The US defense budget represents US priorities and spending globally and not money spent for or on behalf of NATO or for the mutual defense of the alliance members. NATO-Europe is expected to spend $286 billion on defense in 2018.Personnel expenditures constitute the largest single category of anticipated US defense expenditures in 2018 (42.5%)—which includes pensions paid to retirees—followed by equipment and related R&D (26.8%).Defense infrastructure makes up only 1.3 percent of total US defense expenditures in 2018, down from 3.1 percent 2011. Measure 2: Share of GDP. In 2014, NATO members agreed as a signal of political will and validation of the alliance to increase defense expenditures to at least two percent of GDP by 2024. According to 2018 estimates, by this measure a few countries have already met the commitment while other countries are still working up to the 2024 standard: the US, 3.5 percent; Greece, 2.3 percent; Estonia, 2.1 percent, and the UK, 2.1 percent. Measure 3: Contribution to the NATO Common Funding. Based on an agreed GDP-based cost sharing formula, the largest share of direct funding of NATO's $2.5 billion Common Fund by the 29-member alliance** is from the largest economy: the United States. In 2017, the US contribution made up 22 percent of NATO's common fund, or about $550 million. Europe's total contribution was $1.8 billion. Learn more about direct funding to NATO here. If the US President wants to argue in favor of alliance members more rapidly reaching a 2 percent minimum in defense spending in light of the threats posed to global security by non-alliance actors, that policy argument would supersede the data used herein to examine current commitments of NATO members. *Figures for 2017 and 2018 are estimates. The NATO Europe and NATO total aggregates for 2017 include Montenegro, which became an ally member on 5 June 2017.** The Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries dataset does not include Iceland. 

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Difference in Daily Diet Across Countries //knoema.de/gcaicze/difference-in-daily-diet-across-countries 2022-04-21T17:33:46Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Difference in Daily Diet Across Countries

(Updated: 09 June 2021) How does the composition of people's daily diets vary across countries? Ideally, food intake should be balanced, which requires access to fresh vegetables and fruits, grains, proteins (meats and beans), dairy products, and healthy oils while minimizing or reducing consumption of alcohol, salt, and sugar. For a variety of reasons, income being paramount, disparities in access to quality food undermine the average daily diets of millions of people worldwide.A comparison of data on the consumption of various food products per capita and gross national income per capita shows that people in high-income countries consume more vegetable oils, dairy products, and meat than people in lower income countries. As income per capita decreases, consumption of cereals accounts for a bigger share of the average person's daily diet.People living at the extreme poverty level tend to consume a higher volume of starchy roots and fruits, which replace cereals, meat, vegetable oils and sugar in daily diet compared to those living in high-income countries. Pulses (such as beans, lentils, and chickpeas) also represent an increased share of daily diet in many poorer countries.Wealthier populations also eat a larger amount of food. For instance, the average American has an annual income* of $63,064 and consumes around 953 kg (nearly 2,000 lbs.) of food per year; in contrast, the average Nigerian has an annual income of $5,279 and eats approximately 621 kg of food per year (1370 lbs.). Note: the list of countries in the first chart below includes: 20 largest economies by GDP (PPP); 20 most populous countries; select representative countries added to fill gaps in per capita income scale. *2018 GDP per capita, current purchasing power parity (PPP).

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Cheapest And Most Expensive Internet In the World //knoema.de/fzkjyf/cheapest-and-most-expensive-internet-in-the-world 2022-04-21T16:59:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Cheapest And Most Expensive Internet In the World

(28 October 2021) In the modern digital world, access to the internet is increasingly becoming a basic human need. A worldwide broadband pricing report from Cable.co.uk shows how much the price for internet access varies across countries. Some key takeaways:The world's cheapest fixed-line broadband is currently offered in Ukraine,  with an average monthly cost of US$6.40 per month. Five of the ten countries with the cheapest internet were formerly part of the USSR: Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Belarus.The world's most expensive country for fixed-line broadband is Eritrea, with an average package price of $2,666 per month. Eritrea is also the most expensive country in terms of internet speed, with users paying an average monthly cost of of $1,590 per megabit per second (Mbps)—more than seven times the monthly cost per Mbps in the next most expensive country, Niger.The country with the lowest cost/speed ratio is Romania, with an average cost of $.02 per Mbps per month. Of the 211 countries covered in the report, 87 (41%) have average costs per Mbps less than $1.00 per month, and users in 171 countries (81%) pay less than $10 per Mbps per month.The US is ranked at 131st place globally among countries with the cheapest internet, with an average package cost of $60 per month. On the Mbps cost scale, though, the US is ranked at 26th place globally.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
United States: Trade Deficit Widened to Record $84 Billion in August //knoema.de/qgnnqt/united-states-trade-deficit-widened-to-record-84-billion-in-august 2022-04-21T10:10:46Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
United States: Trade Deficit Widened to Record $84 Billion in August

(30 October 2020) The US trade gap in goods widened to a record $84 billion in August pointing to twin truths: strong recovery of the US economy and the failure of President Trump to achieve one of his presidency's main goals of reducing the US trade deficit.The Fed's $2.9 trillion in total stimulus from March through May and lower interest rates prompted households to spend instead of save and businesses to resume investing as indicated by short-term indicators, such as retail sales and capacity utilization. With consumer demand recovering faster than production, the unmet demand was covered by increased imports.There are also fundamental reasons for the nearly five-decade trade deficit, which is also currently the largest trade deficit in the world. US domestic investment vastly exceeds savings and the US maintains a large budget deficit, which are financed from abroad in the form of payments for imports. A strong dollar and enormous financial sector also contribute to the negative trade balance.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Millennial Cities Ranking //knoema.de/lvohgsd/millennial-cities-ranking 2022-04-06T17:27:55Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Millennial Cities Ranking

Millennials are marked for their affinity with media and digital technologies and the consequent positive effect on policy and economy of cities they live in. The migration of individuals of this generation is thus of high interest to everyone from city planners and real estate agents to corporations with long supply chains to recalibrate to the demands of evolving city demographics.Millennials—those aged 17-37 years, i.e. born between the early 1980s to early 2000s—constitute roughly one-third of the world's population, or 2.5 billion people.Individuals from this generation tend to move more often than other generations, a tendency attributed to their highly expectant standards. According to the United Nations Development Programme, millennials represent more than one-third of the world's total international migrant stock. The tendency of millennials to city hop begs the question, which cities most attract millennials and why? Nestpick—a service that helps people find apartments around the world—has developed a Millennial Cities Ranking that includes 100 cities from 40 countries worldwide. The 'best’ cities for millennials assumes good performance across all 16 of the factors it ranks, which are broken down into four categories: business ecosystem, affordable access to the essentials, openness and tolerance, and recreation facilities.*According to the Nestpick, Amsterdam is the perfect city for millennials. The city is perceived as LGBT friendly, has affordable housing, and boasts a lively night scene. Moreover, 29 percent of Amsterdam's population is foreign-born as of 2016, which means that many people have already relocated to this dynamic city. While Amsterdam has the highest overall score, it is highest ranked in only one of the 16 factors - LGBT friendliness. A variety of cities rank higher on a factor-by-factor basis: Bangkok for employment; San Francisco for startups, Medellin by cheap food, and Beijing by beer, for example.Almost all of the top cities from Nestpick score well among other global rankings. For example, Amsterdam was ranked 26th in the Global Cities Index by Bloomberg and the Global Cities Liveability ranking by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Explore today’s Viz and see how cities in your area rank in terms of the millennial appeal.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Housing Affordability Around the World //knoema.de/hyjmcxd/housing-affordability-around-the-world 2022-04-06T17:23:01Z Alina Buzanakova knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1293450
Housing Affordability Around the World

Housing affordability and its impact on middle-income households worldwide is emerging as a major concern throughout the developed world. According to the London-based consultancy Knight Frank, housing prices in the world's largest cities rose by 3 percent on average during the last year. The strongest growth was observed in Turkey where average housing prices increased by 18 percent in the last year. In contrast, across the Black Sea in the Ukraine, property prices declined by 12 percent last year. The US house price index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows a similar increase in property prices, disrupted only by the global recession in 2008-09.  Aside from property prices, household incomes and lending rates in a country also affect the affordability of housing. As a result, a variety of indicators investigating the affordability of property have emerged:Global House Price Index, published by Knight Frank, allows investors and developers to monitor and compare the performance of mainstream residential markets worldwide.House Price Index, published by Eurostat, measures inflation in the residential property market for multiple types of residential property. Today's dashboard features the Property Price Index, collected by Numbeo, a user-generated compilation of data about cities and countries worldwide.

Alina Buzanakova knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1293450
Samba TV: Helping you optimize TV ad timing and placement //knoema.de/iaglzmg/samba-tv-helping-you-optimize-tv-ad-timing-and-placement 2022-04-01T14:44:20Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Samba TV: Helping you optimize TV ad timing and placement

  Samba TV provides viewing data that can help advertising companies understand the fluctuations of ad impressions across countries, markets, and ad categories, as well as viewership volumes at different times of day for each quarter, equipping them to find the best market, TV network, and time for their ads. Viewership data from Samba TV can also be used by advertising companies and TV networks for competitor review. On this sample dashboard, you can explore highlights of the types of insights your organization can glean from Samba TV's data with data tools from Knoema. Select a country from the drop-down menu to view country details.   Want to learn more about how you can create custom visualizations and data dashboards with the data your team needs at its fingertips? Chat with our team!

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2050 //knoema.de/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-2021-2022-and-long-term-to-2050 2022-03-13T15:06:03Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2050

(13 May 2021) Brent crude oil prices will average $62.26 per barrel in 2021 and $60.74 per barrel in 2022 according to the forecast in the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This represents a rebound from the 2020 average of $41.69 per barrel, but it is still lower than pre-COVID levels. The International Monetary Fund, in its latest release of the World Economic Outlook, predicts a similar recovery scenario, with Brent oil prices rising to US$59.74 per barrel in 2021 and then to $56.23 in 2022. Oil price forecasts depend on the interaction between supply and demand for oil in international markets. The most important supply-side factors impacting pricing in the next few years are expected to include US shale oil production, US crude oil stocks, and OPEC oil supply. A chronology of oil price swings since the end of 2019:In December 2019, Brent crude price averaged $67 per barrel, which was $10 higher than at the end of December of the previous year. This reflected the expectation of improving economic conditions in 2020.However, in January 2020, oil prices lost all the gains accumulated since October 2019 as the Coronavirus outbreak in China affected oil demand due to travel restrictions and decreased entertainment spending.In early March 2020, OPEC and non-OPEC partner countries failed to reach an agreement on oil production cuts. As a result, the two largest oil producers — Russia and Saudi Arabia — commenced a price war, flooding market with cheap oil against the backdrop of falling global demand as local coronavirus outbreaks developed into a pandemic. Oil prices plummeted, as a result, soon reaching a twenty-two-year low of $9.12 per barrel in April.On April 12, OPEC+ countries agreed to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels/day during the next two months. Anticipation of the successful deal led to an oil price rebound. But on April 20, prices for WTI futures that were due to expire the next day plunged below zero for the first time ever. Because of the dramatic shrinkage of oil demand due to the Coronavirus lockdown, companies had filled their entire storage capacity with unused oil and were trying to get rid of expiring futures contracts at their cost.By the end of 2020, when the first COVID-19 vaccination campaigns had started, the crude oil price reached $52 per barrel.During the first months of 2021, oil prices continued growing, reaching a one-year maximum of $69.95 on March 5. The gains reflect improving oil demand due to progress in COVID-19 vaccination as well as recovering global economic activity. Rising shipping costs and disruptions to petroleum supply from extreme winter weather in Texas also put upward pressure on crude oil prices in February.   Price forecasts for other critical commodities: gold | silver | copper | aluminum | nickel | zinc | coal | natural gas 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Russia Has Lost Access to $400B of Foreign Exchange Reserves //knoema.de/agzmkvc/russia-has-lost-access-to-400b-of-foreign-exchange-reserves 2022-03-10T16:16:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Russia Has Lost Access to $400B of Foreign Exchange Reserves

(4 March 2022) The US, the EU, the UK and other allied countries have imposed sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia to limit Moscow's ability to use its foreign exchange reserves to support the Russian financial system after the largest Russian banks were cut off from the global financial messaging system SWIFT.Due to high world oil and gas prices, Russia's foreign exchange reserves had increased to a record $643 billion as of Feb. 18, 2022*Since 2014, when the first Western sanctions were imposed against Russian banks and businesses, the Central Bank of Russia has significantly changed the allocation of foreign reserves in favor of gold (stored in Russia) and the Chinese yuan. According to the latest report from the Central Bank of Russia (published with a 6 month lag), as of June 30, 2021 gold and Chinese yuan accounted for 35% of Russia's foreign exchange reserves.The value of Russia's foreign exchange reserves that is blocked by Western allies is an estimated $419 billion, assuming the allocation by geography and currency has not changed significantly since mid-2021 and access to SDRs and IMF reserve position is also blocked. *Feb. 18, 2022 is the latest available official record. The Central Bank of Russia has stated that it will not disclose the amount of foreign exchange reserves for the next three months.   Discover the power of data:Find out how Knoema's Insights Engine can help businesses allocate assets safely

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Dangerous Duo: COVID-19 and Food Price Inflation Unwinding Progress on Global Poverty //knoema.de/tzukkje/dangerous-duo-covid-19-and-food-price-inflation-unwinding-progress-on-global-poverty 2022-03-01T19:17:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Dangerous Duo: COVID-19 and Food Price Inflation Unwinding Progress on Global Poverty

(22 December 2020) Eliminating global poverty can sound like an impossibility for some perfect world akin to a wish for world peace, but millions globally face this as a matter of daily survival. Now, COVID-19 and market conditions that are driving food price inflation have spilled over as direct threats to food security and decades of progress to reduce poverty. The FAO Global Food Price Index reached a 6-year high during the September-November period, propelled by increasing prices of critical food commodities including cereals and oils. In November 2020, the FAO Global Food Price Index increased 6.5 percent y-o-y. Prices for cereals and oils jumped 19.9 percent and 30.8 percent, respectively.According to the FAO, grain prices were affected by the downward revision of harvest estimates in Argentina, the United States, and Ukraine amidst simultaneous rising demand from China. Palm oil prices were particularly affected by a sharp contraction in world inventories.The FAO estimates that 45 food deficit countries, 34 of which are African, now require external food assistance. Assuming the World Bank's expectations are anywhere near correct and the COVID-19 pandemic will push an additional 88 million to 115 million people globally into extreme poverty this year, rising food prices will only exacerbate food security risks, likely beyond those at most peril now among low-income grain importing countries such as Egypt, Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
India Battles to Clean Up Bad Loans That Threaten Its Financial Stability //knoema.de/kekyhog/india-battles-to-clean-up-bad-loans-that-threaten-its-financial-stability 2022-02-28T04:45:53Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
India Battles to Clean Up Bad Loans That Threaten Its Financial Stability

India is not only the third largest economy in the world, but of the top 10 largest economies globally, it has the third highest share of bad loans, too. India's non-performing loans represent 10 percent of total bank loans and about $210 billion of outstanding debt. Since 2008 when attention shifted globally to financial stability and the role of the banking sector, the share of non-performing loans in India has grown by 7.5 percent and is expected to worsen in the coming years, according to the Central Bank of India.To preempt a major national banking crisis, New Delhi is striving to clean up stressed debt with the help of resolution professionals and independent asset management companies.Some investors will view the anticipated sale of a large volume of India's distressed assets as a niche investment opportunity in this large economy, an opportunity worth upwards of $10 billion to the Indian economy during the next year, according to local financial press.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Right Food Price Hotspots to Worry About //knoema.de/yniczof/the-right-food-price-hotspots-to-worry-about 2022-02-25T12:40:30Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Right Food Price Hotspots to Worry About

(1 March 2020) The recent rise in global food prices poses a direct threat to many countries and millions of households around the world.  In its recent article on the subject Bloomberg named five such "hotspots" — Russia, India, Brazil, Turkey,  and Nigeria. According to Bloomberg, the acceleration of food price inflation in these countries has the potential not only to exacerbate food insecurity for families but to transfer to social protests. Looking deeper at the most recent data on food inflation in the five hotspots, and investigating the domestic patterns of supply and consumption of one of the most important food commodity groups, grains, we analyze how vulnerable Bloomberg's hotspots really are to food inflation.First of all, Nigeria. Food inflation there topped 20% year-over-year at the end of 2020. Because of the high dependency on imported food, and the almost 60% share of the budget spent on food in the average household, this country is ranked among the top 10 in Knoema's Grain Price Vulnerability Index. The decline in oil exports, depreciation of Naira, and growing unemployment fueled record-high incidents of political and social unrest in 2020.Turkey, Brazil, India, and especially Russia can hardly be counted among hotspots. Food inflation in Brazil, India, and Russia increased to approximately 10% year-over-year in recent months — a level that is not unusual for these countries and is rarely associated with social protests among the population. In Turkey, food inflation topped 20% in Nov–Dec 2020 (again, far from a record high in this country). But the share of expenditures spent on food in the average household budget is only 21% — only a third compared to the share spent in Nigeria, leaving room for the population to adapt to higher food prices through the shift in the commodity basket.According to Knoema's Grains Price Vulnerability Index, which shows how vulnerable a given country is to the acceleration of grain prices, India, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey are among the less vulnerable countries. High self-sufficiency in food and agricultural products, a moderate share of expenditures on food in household consumption, and protection of domestic markets through local currency devaluation in 2020 create conditions for further import substitution, rather than for growing protest activity in these countries.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Europe Electricity Generation Tracker: Wind Energy in Focus //knoema.de/ojcdstg/europe-electricity-generation-tracker-wind-energy-in-focus 2022-02-18T08:38:05Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Europe Electricity Generation Tracker: Wind Energy in Focus

(12 January 2022) To meet its goal of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Europe increasingly relies on wind energy. According to data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), in 2020 and 2021 wind energy generation accounted for an average of 16.3% of Europe's total electricity generation. Though wind energy helps to reduce GHG emissions, the supply of wind energy available depends heavily on wind speed. And in the event of unfavorable weather conditions, the loss in wind energy supply has to be compensated for by an increase in electricity generated by burning natural gas and coal, which pushes up market prices for these fossil fuels. (The reverse is also true: ideal wind generation conditions lead to decreased fossil fuel power generation, pushing natural gas and coal prices down.) Since wind energy generation has become an important leading indicator for European coal and natural gas market movements, Knoema has employed ENTSO-E data to create a daily electricity generation tracker for European countries.On the basis of the ENTSO-E data*, Knoema estimates that in the first 10 days of January 2022, wind energy generation in Europe was 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year ago. The average daily share of wind energy generation in Europe's total energy generation increased to 28.8%, compared to only 8.9% a year ago. The increase in wind energy generation may help to stabilize coal and natural gas prices in Europe. This dashboard also includes total daily electricity generation for Europe and for individual countries in the region. When adjusted for working days and temperature, daily electricity generation can be used as leading indicator of economic activity.   *Sample includes 28 European countries for which ENTSO-E provides data since at least January 1, 2021.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China's Thermal Power Demand Hit Record //knoema.de/hvtcly/china-s-thermal-power-demand-hit-record 2022-02-15T08:17:05Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China's Thermal Power Demand Hit Record

(04 October 2021) China's economy has quickly recovered from the coronavirus crisis and is expected to grow between 7% and 8% in 2021 due to recovery of global trade, expansionary monetary policy, and increase in government spending. However, the rapid growth of the economy not only creates income and jobs, but can also lead to a shortage of resources.Strong economic growth in China translated into high demand for electricity, 57% of which is generated by coal power plants. In January-August 2021, China's total electricity output and thermal power* generation increased by a record 617 and 465 terawatt-hours, respectively, compared to the same period last year.As 70% of electricity in China is generated by thermal power plants, the only way to meet the high electricity demand in the short term is to burn more coal and natural gas.Beijing's informal ban on coal imports from Australia (the largest exporter of coal to China) and disruptions in domestic coal production caused by safety checks, coming at a time of record demand for electricity, contributed to a coal price rally at Chinese and international markets. While households and industry are ordered to decrease electricity consumption to soften the impact of the coal shortage, China is ready to import coal at any price to ensure heating and power generation this winter. *Thermal power plants generate electricity by a steam boiler fuelled by coal, natural gas, heating oil, as well as by biomass. Thermal power accounts for 70% of electricity generated in China. 80% of thermal power plants are fuelled by coal.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Interest Rates //knoema.de/wpkbldb/us-interest-rates 2022-02-10T19:04:09Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Interest Rates

(16 March 2020)  On Sunday, in anticipation of the dire potential effects of the coronavirus on the US economy, the US Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rates to nearly zero. In addition to a one-percentage-point rate cut decrease—the second emergency rate cut so far this month—the Federal Reserve:Cut reserve requirements for thousands of banks to zero;Announced a $700 billion quantitative easing program ($500 billion of Treasurys, $200 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities) that will be launched Monday with an initial a $40 billion in asset purchases;Decreased the emergency lending rate at the discount window by 125 basis points to 0.25% in addition to lengthening and loan terms to 90 days; andCoordinated with several central banks globally, including the Banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switzerland as well as the European Central Bank, to execute existing dollar swap arrangements to enhance the liquidity of the US dollar globally. All eyes now turn to the market response, consumer confidence, and other leading indicators to assess the extent of the economic weakness in the United States as COVID-19 continues to spread.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
United States: Sports Betting Industry is on the Rise //knoema.de/xalczxc/united-states-sports-betting-industry-is-on-the-rise 2022-02-02T08:04:55Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
United States: Sports Betting Industry is on the Rise

(15 April 2021) Since 2018, when US states were given the power to legalize sports betting, the annual revenue of the sports betting industry has increased by five times — from $0.3 billion in 2018 to $1.5 billion in 2020 according to data from SportsHandle. The COVID-19 pandemic undermined revenue growth in early 2020, but the industry had already recovered by September, largely due to the adoption of online betting.As of today, 20 US states have already launched online or retail legal sports betting, several other states have legalised the sports betting but not launched it yet and many states are in the first stages of considering legal sports betting. Experts estimate that if sports betting is legalised and launched in all 50 states, industry revenue will increase to around $20 billion a year. Some US state governments and sports leagues see sports betting as a good opportunity to increase tax revenues and profits in a subdued post-pandemic economy — one which stimulates the cooperation between sports leagues and gambling operators as well as the rise of new startups providing online betting services.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Eurozone: Real Estate Market is Booming //knoema.de/jdiialb/eurozone-real-estate-market-is-booming 2022-01-26T09:21:55Z Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
Eurozone: Real Estate Market is Booming

(18 January 2022) In the third quarter of 2021, house prices in the eurozone rose at the fastest rate since Eurostat started recording this data in 2005.Low interest rates, supply constraints, and the boost in demand for new houses to accommodate work from home policies pushed the house price growth to the highest level since 2005, 8.4% year-over-year, in Q3 2021.House prices rose above 16% year-over-year in Q3 2021 in Lithuania, Estonia, and the Netherlands. The lowest price increases were recorded in Cyprus, Italy, and Spain — below 5% year-over-year.

Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
Eurozone: Tightening Labor Market Puts Pressure on Inflation //knoema.de/snnmxl/eurozone-tightening-labor-market-puts-pressure-on-inflation 2022-01-26T09:20:53Z Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
Eurozone: Tightening Labor Market Puts Pressure on Inflation

(14 January 2022) Labor market conditions in the eurozone (EA19) — the E.U. member countries that use a shared single currency, the euro — improved in November, as unemployment fell to a record low since the COVID-19 pandemic started in March 2020. (December 2021 unemployment data will be released in February.) The eurozone registered a decline of 222,000 in the number of unemployed people in November compared to October, with the total down to 11.8 million. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 7.2% for the same period. The lowest unemployment rates were registered by the Netherlands, 2.7%, and Germany, 3.2%. The highest unemployment rates in the eurozone were observed in Spain, 14.1%, and Greece, 13.4%.Amid the tightening labor market and increasing labor costs, consumer price inflation in Europe hit the highest level in more than two decades. In November 2021, the annual rate of CPI inflation accelerated to 4.9%, and core inflation (the overall index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) jumped to 2.6%. The furlough programs in place, which have limited the pandemic's impact on the labor market, and strong demand for labor will likely help to improve the market in coming months. However, the rise in new variants such as Omicron may have negative impact on the labor market and the economy.

Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
U.K. Inflation Rose to a Ten-Year High in October 2021 //knoema.de/awdinse/u-k-inflation-rose-to-a-ten-year-high-in-october-2021 2022-01-19T13:25:08Z Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
U.K. Inflation Rose to a Ten-Year High in October 2021

(19 November 2021) Consumer price inflation, a gauge of the cost of living, accelerated in the United Kingdom in October, largely driven by higher energy prices and mounting supply-chain disruptions, reaching the highest level since December 2011. The U.K. consumer price index rose 4.2% YoY in October following a 3.1% increase in September. The October rise was more than double the target of 2% set by Bank of England. Household energy costs were one of the biggest contributors to inflation; Ofgem, the British energy regulator, raised the price cap on domestic gas and electricity on October 1, 2021. Petrol prices also rose in October amid a surge in global energy prices. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to rise further, to around 5% in the spring of 2022, before falling back towards the target rate as the impact of higher oil and gas prices fades and demand for goods moderates.

Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
The True Carbon Emission Country Ranking //knoema.de/rziokkb/the-true-carbon-emission-country-ranking 2022-01-18T19:46:25Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The True Carbon Emission Country Ranking

(02 December 2021) As governments and businesses aim to reduce carbon footprint to meet climate targets, measuring carbon emissions at global, country, and corporate levels has become extremely important. A key tool designed to reduce carbon footprint is carbon pricing/taxation, in which a government sets a price (or a carbon tax) that emitters must pay for each ton of greenhouse gas emissions they emit. Existing carbon pricing schemes tax only current carbon flows, but what about carbon emissions of the past? Who should pay for these?  Using Global Carbon Atlas data on fossil fuel CO2 emissions for more than 200 countries over the last sixty years, we have created a "true" ranking of carbon emissions by country that ranks countries by accumulated, rather than annual, emissions. Here are the key findings:Countries that were already significantly industrialized in the second half of the 20th century rank higher in accumulated carbon emission than they do in annual carbon emission rankings.China, which is the largest carbon emitter on an annual basis, with 32% of global CO2 emissions in 2020, accumulated 23% less CO2 emissions from 1960 to 2020 than the U.S.On an accumulated basis, the world's largest CO2 emitter is the U.S., which is responsible for 22% of global CO2 emissions in the sixty-year period from 1960 to 2020. China's share in global accumulated carbon emissions, 17%, is just over half its share in global annual emissions. Looking at emissions this way might provide a more realistic framework for carbon tax rate calculations. For example, let's assume a scenario in which all countries use the same method of calculation to determine their carbon tax rates. If accumulated emissions are used as the basis for this rate calculation, countries with high current emissions but low historic emissions will have a lower tax burden than they would if current annual emissions were used as the basis for the tax rate. This means, for example, that the value of carbon tax paid by businesses (and, indirectly, consumers) in China would be almost 50% lower with an accumulated emissions calculation than it would be if carbon tax were calculated on an annual emissions basis.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Omicron Decoupled COVID Death Count from Cases //knoema.de/bvuvkke/omicron-decoupled-covid-death-count-from-cases 2022-01-18T18:07:33Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Omicron Decoupled COVID Death Count from Cases

(27 December / updated 13 January 2022) As Omicron spreads around the world, many countries are facing a new wave of COVID cases. At the end of December 2021, the number of new COVID cases globally was over a million per day — surpassing the rate the world had seen in past waves — and it has more than doubled since then. However, there's a key difference from the past waves: the number of daily deaths globally continued to decline for several weeks even as cases surged. While COVID deaths have now begun to trend upwards, they so far continue to represent a far smaller share of cases than in any previous wave.According to the WHO, it is not yet known whether the Omicron variant of COVID-19 causes more severe disease than the Delta variant. What is known, though, is that Omicron spread around the world much faster than previous variants. The latest data from Our World in Data (which collects data from GISAID) shows that the share of Omicron among analyzed sequences of SARS-CoV-2 variants globally increased to 48% in just one month after the first Omicron case was detected in late November. Previous widespread COVID variants — Alpha and Delta — took at least three months to reach the same prevalence.The decline in new COVID deaths amid the upsurge in new COVID cases may be due in part to the increase in the share of the population that is vaccinated. As of end of December 2021, 48% of the global population had been fully vaccinated, and the total crossed 50% in early January.As of the end of December, five countries — the U.S., the U.K., France, Spain and Italy — accounted for 54% of new daily COVID cases globally. The share of fully vaccinated population in these countries ranges from 61% to 81%. This dashboard contains live charts that will be updated as new data becomes available.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Asia Bets on Nuclear Power in Global Energy Transition //knoema.de/jokldqf/asia-bets-on-nuclear-power-in-global-energy-transition 2022-01-18T18:06:37Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Asia Bets on Nuclear Power in Global Energy Transition

(24 December 2021) While many countries have started to phase out nuclear power generation under the pressure of safety concerns raised by the 2011 Fukushima accident, many Asian and Middle East countries have ambitious plans to substantially increase their nuclear power generation capacity.According to the latest data from the World Nuclear Association, the total capacity of proposed and planned nuclear reactors in Asian* countries reaches 301 Gigawatts, which is nearly twice the capacity of operable reactors and reactors currently under construction. For the Middle East this ratio is even higher, with proposed and planned reactor capacity 3.4 times greater than that of existing reactors and those already under construction — though the total capacity of existing nuclear power generation in the Middle East (4 gigawatts) is much lower than the current capacity in Asia (114 gigawatt).For North America, Europe, and CIS** countries, the ratio of planned and proposed nuclear reactor capacity to existing capacity and capacity under construction equals 0.14, 0.25, and 1.15, respectively. In the tables below, you can explore data on current, under-construction, planned, and proposed nuclear capacity by country and region. Select a nuclear power reactor status and measure (number of reactors or total capacity in megawatts electrical, MWe) from the first drop-down to view details in the table to the right. Select a country in the second drop-down menu to display country-specific details in the chart at the bottom of the page. Notes: *Asia excluding CIS countries. **CIS countries include former Soviet Union republics except the Baltic states.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
High Energy Costs: Incentive or Obstacle for Energy Efficiency? //knoema.de/kjvjpbe/high-energy-costs-incentive-or-obstacle-for-energy-efficiency 2022-01-18T18:05:50Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
High Energy Costs: Incentive or Obstacle for Energy Efficiency?

(21 December 2021) Achievement of the long-term global temperature goal — to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally to 1.5 degrees, above pre-industrial levels — requires not only a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, but also more efficient use of energy. In this dashboard we’ve put together data from different sources to estimate whether high energy prices can serve as an incentive to increase energy efficiency. Our estimates for a sample of 79 countries for 2019 confirm the hypothesis that high energy prices in general correspond to high energy efficiency, which suggests that energy price regulation policies can contribute to efforts to limit global warming. Note: Energy intensity has been calculated as a ratio of total primary energy consumption (from a dataset by bp) to GDP at current PPPs (World Bank). Gasoline price, converted to international dollars using PPP to exchange rate ratios, has been used as a proxy for energy price.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
EU Coal Fueled Post-Covid Recovery //knoema.de/klbnstf/eu-coal-fueled-post-covid-recovery 2022-01-18T18:04:37Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
EU Coal Fueled Post-Covid Recovery

(20 December 2021) Europe, which aims to be the first climate-neutral continent by moving to a clean, circular economy, has increased its use of coal — the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel — to meet the growing demand for electricity.According to Eurostat monthly energy statistics, for January through September 2021 electricity generation by coal power plants saw a greater increase compared to the same period last year than electricity generation from other types of fuel. For the same period, wind and natural gas electricity generation declined because of unfavorable weather conditions, natural gas shortages, and record high natural gas prices.For Germany, Poland and the Netherlands, which account for 85% of the total year-over-year increase, burning more coal was the only option to increase electricity generation as much as was required for post-COVID economic recovery.Though coal power generation accounts only for 13.5% of total electricity generation in the EU-27, for Poland and Germany coal is a vitally important fossil fuel, as coal power accounts for 28% and 72% of these nations’ total electricity generation, respectively. The visualizations below display power generation data for the E.U. by default. Choose a country from the drop-down menu to view country-specific data.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US is Leading the Global Energy Transition //knoema.de/guamqie/us-is-leading-the-global-energy-transition 2022-01-18T18:03:34Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US is Leading the Global Energy Transition

(17 December 2021) With the global energy transition gaining momentum, we've employed Knoema's public data repository to rank leading economies by their energy transition progress. Knoema’s Global Energy Transition Ranking is based on four indicators: all-electric car stock, using a dataset from the International Energy Agency; wind and solar electricity capacity data, from the International Renewable Energy Agency; and net change in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion between 2010 and 2020, from Global Carbon Atlas. Here are key findings:The U.S. is leading the global energy transition. It has the world’s second-largest stock of all-electric cars and second-largest wind and solar electricity generation capacities, and it is far ahead of the rest of the world in reducing С02 emissions over the past decade: U.S. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2020 were 963 million metric tons of carbon lower than in 2010.China, which is the leading country on the scale of adopted renewable energy technologies — stock of EVs and solar and wind electricity generation capacity — is ranked only 24th in the Global Energy Transition Ranking because of the country’s upward trend in CO2 emissions. Between 2010 and 2020, China’s CO2 emissions increased by 2,051 million metric tons of carbon.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Germany: Stepping into a Winter Natural Gas Crisis //knoema.de/nsevric/germany-stepping-into-a-winter-natural-gas-crisis 2022-01-18T18:02:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Germany: Stepping into a Winter Natural Gas Crisis

(16 December 2021; updated 29 December 2021) According to aggregated storage inventory data, natural gas storage in Germany — the largest EU economy and the fifth largest economy in the world — averaged only 58% full in the first three weeks of December 2021. That is 23 percentage points below the ten-year December average for 2011 to 2020. On December 27, Germany's gas storage facilities were only 53% full. The daily average is trending downward as supplies are depleted, so the the final 2021 December average may be even further below the ten-year average for the month. Amid tight supply and growing consumption, natural gas prices in Europe hit a new record in the end of December 2021. The current natural gas spot price in Europe is almost five times higher than the 10-year average price for 2011 to 2020.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Inflation Hits 6.8%, a Four-Decade High //knoema.de/hyabkoc/us-inflation-hits-6-8-a-four-decade-high 2022-01-18T18:01:30Z Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
US Inflation Hits 6.8%, a Four-Decade High

(12 December 2021) In November, U.S. consumer price inflation, a measure of the cost of a wide-ranging basket of consumer goods and services, hit its highest year-over-year growth in four decades. Inflation continues to put pressure on households and businesses. The consumer price index was up 6.8% year-over-year in November, largely driven by food, energy and housing prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, climbed 4.9%, the highest jump since 1991.Food prices were up 6.1% in November, while housing rose 4.8% as disruption in the supply of raw materials limited construction activities.Energy price were up 33.3% in November following a 30% increase in October. Gasoline prices were up a staggering 58.1% year-over-year in November. In recent months, high inflation resulting from the pandemic has been spurred by disruption in global supply chains as well as by strong demand resulting from stimulus packages. The persistently elevated inflation has raised concern among Federal Reserve policy makers. The uptick has lasted longer than expected, and it is showing no sign of cooling down as demand for products remains strong and fear of the new Omicron variant continues to disrupt manufacturing and transportation. If the Fed regards inflation as permanent rather than transitory, it is likely to cut back support for the economy by slowing down monthly bond purchases, and eventually by raising interest rates — likely sooner than they had previously expected.

Nematullah Khan knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1975840
Apple iPhone Sales Worldwide //knoema.de/doonyab/apple-iphone-sales-worldwide 2021-12-10T08:10:11Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Apple iPhone Sales Worldwide

(10 December 2021) During the first quarter of 2019 (Apple’s second fiscal quarter), sales of the Apple iPhone decreased by 17 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Since announcing its results for the second fiscal quarter, Apple's share price has also dropped six percent.   The iPhone first quarter results were neither unexpected nor the steepest decreases in iPhone revenues the company has faced. Apple reported more dramatic decreases in iPhone revenues during the second and third quarters of 2016 as well as the first quarter of 2018. Earlier this year Apple's CEO Tim Cook also warned investors that he anticipated sales would slow primarily because of the economic deceleration in China. Cook called out China’s 4Q 2018 GDP growth specifically, which was the second-lowest of the last 25 years.    While revenue growth from other Apple products and services remains strong, Apple’s net revenue was down five percent to $58 billion in the wake of slowing iPhone sales, highlighting the company’s vulnerability to this revenue stream. The iPhone makes up 54 percent of Apple’s sales value. The company's reliance on the iPhone is, however, gradually shifting toward other products, including the iPad and Apple Watch, and services, such as Apple Music and the recently unveiled TV streaming platform Apple TV+.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The World's Biggest Public Companies, 2021 //knoema.de/nhmovec/the-world-s-biggest-public-companies-2021 2021-12-09T11:17:59Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The World's Biggest Public Companies, 2021

Published by Forbes magazine since 2003, the Forbes Global 2000 is an annual ranking of the world’s top 2000 public companies. Forbes ranks the companies according to four basic metrics: profit, sales, assets, and market value.The world's 2000 biggest public companies account for $201 trillion in total assets, $42 trillion in revenues, $3 trillion in profits, and $54 trillion in market value, according to the 2020 list.The world's largest company by market value in 2020 is Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Arabian national oil company ($1.68 trillion), followed by Microsoft ($1.35 trillion), which have overtaken Apple ($1.2 trillion) after its multi-year lead.China’s two biggest banks occupied the top two places again for all banks globally. ICBC tops the ranking for the fifth consecutive year. The Agricultural Bank of China moved to 5th place, knocked down by Berkshire Hathaway—a conglomerate owned by Warren Buffet—which moved into 3rd place, and by JPMorgan Chase, which now holds the 4th position.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US vs. China: Measuring Real Economic Power //knoema.de/prxhexg/us-vs-china-measuring-real-economic-power 2021-12-06T11:35:46Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US vs. China: Measuring Real Economic Power

(23 November 2021) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a basicmeasure of the overall size of a country's economy and is often used to compare different countries' economic power. But what exactly is compared when someone says that the GDP of country A is larger than the GDP of country B? The System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations defines GDP as a monetary value of final goods and services — that is, what end users actually purchase — produced in a country, along with some non-market "production" such as defense or education services provided by governments, during a specific period of time (say a quarter or a year). As the UN definition of GDP implies, the whole economy can be divided into two major sectors: the so-called real sector, which includes production of goods and real assets, and the services sector, which includes production of services, everything from banking to education to healthcare. This dashboard uses U.N. data to analyze the economic powers of countries measured solely by the ability of the economy to produce goods and real assets like infrastructure, dwellings and nonresidential buildings, and machinery and equipment. We estimate GDP produced in the real sector of an economy as a sum of value added in four broad economic activity groups: Agriculture, Industry, Construction, and Transportation and Communications. Why the focus on the real sector? The strength of the real sector reflects two of the basic characteristics of an economy that determine its ability to successfully compete in a world of rising tensions between major powers: self-sufficiency and military power. The third basic economic factor affecting a country's competitiveness — the availability of resources — is not considered here.Using real sector GDP in cross-country comparison of economic power significantly changes the view of the global economic landscape. The U.S. economy, which is the world's largest economy when measured by total GDP at current US dollars, is more than $500 billion smaller than China's when measured by real sector GDP.In 2019*, the ten largest economies in terms of real sector GDP included Russia, Korea and Indonesia. In the ranking by total GDP, these countries are lower down the list, and Italy, Brazil, and Canada round out the top ten. Note: 2019 is currently the latest available year in the U.N. National Accounts Main Aggregates Database

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Labor Market Reshaped by COVID-19 //knoema.de/netvmjf/labor-market-reshaped-by-covid-19 2021-12-06T11:33:23Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Labor Market Reshaped by COVID-19

(12 November 2021) The U.S. labor market has made significant progress since the removal of pandemic-related restrictions. According to the latest labor market report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in October 2021 unemployment decreased to 4.6% and the number of people employed was only 3% below the pre-pandemic figure. However, not all jobs have been bouncing back equally. BLS employment data shows uneven recovery of employment across industries. While in some industries employment is still down 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels, in other industries the number of jobs has increased by 20-40% compared to February 2020. Here are some examples how COVID has been reshaping the labor market:In September 2021, the number of jobs in car manufacturing was 19.4% below the pre-pandemic level. Despite robust demand, car manufacturers have been unable to increase production because of pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. The 2020 layoffs may also push further robotization of production; car manufacturing already has the highest robot density of any major U.S. industry. COVID accelerated the rise of e-commerce, which reduces employment in offline stores and creates jobs in delivery services. While employment in retail clothing stores is still 15% below pre-pandemic levels, the number of couriers has increased 20% since Feb. 2020.Taking care of pets and gardening are activities Americans have taken comfort in during the pandemic. The number of jobs in nursery, garden, and farm supply stores and in animal food production has increased 13.5% and 10%, respectively, compared to before the pandemic.Finally, amid soaring demand for homes, the number of mortgage brokers in September 2021 is up 37% compared to February 2020.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Semiconductor Shortage Crushes Global Car Production //knoema.de/ykahxrc/semiconductor-shortage-crushes-global-car-production 2021-12-06T11:32:18Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Semiconductor Shortage Crushes Global Car Production

(15 November 2021) Amid the global semiconductor shortage, car manufacturers around the world have reduced production or even completely stopped car assembly lines. IHS Markit estimates that in January though September 2021, over 7 million light vehicle units were not produced due to the semiconductor shortage. In this dashboard, Knoema's team has put together monthly statistics on passenger car production in the largest car manufacturing countries — China, Japan, Germany, India, and the United States — which together account for over 60% of global passenger car production.The latest data for August and September 2021 shows that China and Japan are weathering the crisis with the lowest output losses: 11% and 16% year-over-year, respectively.Passenger car manufacturing in Germany, India, and the U.S. dropped between 28% and 32% year-over-year in recent months.The decline in global car manufacturing has the potential to hit the global economy hard. Vehicle manufacturing's share in GDP exceeds 4% in Germany and is over 2% in Japan and China. In addition, disruption in global vehicle manufacturing can have significant negative indirect economic impacts — for example, 12% of steel produced globally is used in car manufacturing.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The New SARS-CoV-2 Variant Omicron Puts the World on Alert //knoema.de/jumwxwg/the-new-sars-cov-2-variant-omicron-puts-the-world-on-alert 2021-12-01T19:17:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The New SARS-CoV-2 Variant Omicron Puts the World on Alert

(30 November 2021) Omicron — the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 first reported to the WHO by South Africa on November 24 — is spreading around the globe. According to GISAID data, as of November 30th Omicron had been detected in 17 countries, including South Africa, Botswana, Israel, Hong Kong, Australia, Canada, Brazil and ten European countries. Little is known about the new COVID-19 variant's contagiousness yet, but countries are already racing to contain its spread.The first known confirmed Omicron infection was from a specimen collected on November 9th, 2021, which suggests that Omicron may already have spread around the globe. As of now, daily COVID statistics for countries with identified Omicron cases don't reveal a pattern of extra upsurges in coronavirus cases or deaths.Omicron has more mutations (50, including 32 in the spike protein) than past SARS-CoV-2 variants, some of which potentially makes the Omicron variant more contagious. It is not yet known how effective the existing COVID vaccines are against Omicron.To prevent the spread of Omicron, many countries have enacted new travel restrictions. The fears of a possible economic global slowdown because of the new COVID variant caused stock markets to drop on Friday, Nov. 26. The same day, the price of crude oil dropped by 12%. While there was an immediate dip after the variant was announced, markets were demonstrating signs of partial recovery on Monday, Nov. 29.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Fiscal Policy Now Reducing US GDP Growth //knoema.de/dzptwkd/fiscal-policy-now-reducing-us-gdp-growth 2021-11-24T08:14:26Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Fiscal Policy Now Reducing US GDP Growth

(05 November 2021) Between Q2 2020 and Q1 2021, when the U.S. economy was struggling because of pandemic-related restrictions and high unemployment, an increase in government spending and tax cuts provided significant support to U.S. economic growth. However, after the fiscal stimulus programs ended in Q1 2021, the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. GDP growth turned negative, according to the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure estimate.The Hutchins Center estimates that in Q2 and Q3 2021, fiscal policy reduced U.S. real GDP growth by 2.2 and 2.4 percentage points respectively, mostly due to the end of supportive tax and benefits programs. U.S. fiscal restraint is expected to continue in 2022 and 2023. Definition: The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) measures how much federal, state, and local tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth. The FIM only measures the direct effects of fiscal policy and includes no multipliers.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
A "Net-Zero" Digital Shift in the Global Corporate Landscape //knoema.de/beipqdg/a-net-zero-digital-shift-in-the-global-corporate-landscape 2021-11-16T10:38:03Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
A "Net-Zero" Digital Shift in the Global Corporate Landscape

(29 October 2021) Amid worldwide efforts to achieve "net-zero" carbon emission targets, economic activities associated with intensive carbon emissions are losing attractiveness for investors. Forbes data on global corporations shows that between 2011 and 2021, the number of oil and gas companies among the 30 world's largest companies decreased from six to only one — Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019. At the same time, the capitalization of ICT (information and communications technology) companies in the list of 30 world's largest companies has significantly outperformed that of all other sectors. With investors preferring to allocate capital in digital assets, will the oil and gas sector get enough capital to maintain the production of hydrocarbons, on which the world is still heavily dependent? Methodology note: Forbes re-named and adjusted definitions of some industry categories between 2011 and 2021. The 2021 data in tables below is as of May 2021.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
5 Million People Killed by COVID in Less Than Two Years //knoema.de/ckyskhc/5-million-people-killed-by-covid-in-less-than-two-years 2021-11-16T10:37:32Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
5 Million People Killed by COVID in Less Than Two Years

(02 November 2021) The COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused the deepest recession in the global economy since the end of the WWII, is far from over. In this dashboard, based on latest COVID data, we visualize key statistical facts and correlations on the pandemic to date. Global COVID-19 waves since the start of 2021 have had consistent periodicity — four months between peaks. Assuming the four-month pattern continues, the next peak in COVID cases and deaths can be expected at the end of December 2021. The latest global COVID wave, which peaked in the end of August, indicated that the time lag between the increases in number of infected people and number of deaths observed in earlier waves has almost disappeared, likely due to the faster progression of the now-predominant Delta variant.The vaccination threshold that reduces the number of COVID deaths to less than 3 new deaths per day per million population stands at 140 per hundred population, which is roughly an equivalent of 70% of a population fully vaccinated (since most of the vaccines require two doses for full protection).Progress in vaccination in emerging and developing countries is slower than in developed countries. Most developed countries have already reached the threshold of possible herd immunity, when 70% of population are fully vaccinated or infected. In all major emerging economies except China the share of the population that is fully vaccinated or have been infected is still below 70%.Raw data doesn't confirm the hypothesis that the level of economic development predetermines the progress in pandemic contamination. Unexpectedly, COVID death rates in many low-income countries are much lower compared to developed economies. However, it is important to keep in mind that the difference in approaches to counting COVID cases and deaths across countries as well as unequal COVID test availability and uneven vaccination progress at the subnational level can distort cross-country comparisons.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China Has Become the Developing World's Largest Creditor //knoema.de/vsnfkkg/china-has-become-the-developing-world-s-largest-creditor 2021-11-16T08:03:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China Has Become the Developing World's Largest Creditor

(04 November 2021) As a part its 2021 International Debt Statistics Report, the World Bank has published data on the external debt of emerging and developing countries, broken down by creditors. This data not only reveals countries — the largest single creditors — but can also be used to estimate the financial power of particular creditors within a specific debtor economy. Detailed external debt data from the World Bank is now available from Knoema.The World Bank data shows that since the 2008 global financial crisis China has dramatically increased lending to foreign countries. The total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt stock of emerging and developing countries that is owed to China increased from $11 billion in 2007 to $157 billion in 2019.Thirty-nine countries owe China over $1 billion. Pakistan,  Angola,  Ethiopia, Kenya and Sri Lanka have the largest debt to China. The graphs below explore the top lenders to emerging and developing economies, dig into the lending geography and totals of the major creditor countries, and provide detailed profiles of debtor countries. Choose a nation in the drop-down menu below to view country details at the bottom of this page.   Definition: "External debt stock" is the amount of a country's debt borrowed from public or private foreign lenders. Source: The World Bank data was retrieved from WB IDS API and assembled by David Mihalyi and Balint Parragi.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Economic Recovery in Europe Stumbled on Natural Gas Shortage //knoema.de/dfjohbe/economic-recovery-in-europe-stumbled-on-natural-gas-shortage 2021-11-10T08:39:00Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Economic Recovery in Europe Stumbled on Natural Gas Shortage

(October 6, 2021) The energy crisis in Europe is intensifying, in part because the long and cold 2020-2021 winter depleted the volume of natural gas available in gas storage capacities.The latest natural gas storage data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory shows that only 75% of gas storage capacities were full as of October 4th, compared to an October average of over 90% for 2016-2020. The low level of gas reserves in Europe has already led to a six-fold increase in natural gas spot prices compared to the beginning of 2021. Wholesale electricity prices in Europe in 2021 are expected to more than double compared to the previous year.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Economic Growth Slows in Q3 2021 //knoema.de/eimbkwb/us-economic-growth-slows-in-q3-2021 2021-11-10T07:22:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Economic Growth Slows in Q3 2021

(01 November 2021) According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in Q3 2021 U.S. GDP growth decelerated, dropping to only 2% over the previous quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Detailed National Income and Product Accounts data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics helps to explain why real GDP growth in July through September 2021 was less than a third of the growth rates in Q1 and Q2.Slowdown in Q3 real GDP growth was caused mostly by deceleration in personal consumer spending. In Q3 2021 personal consumption, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. GDP, contributed only 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, compared to 7.4 and 7.9 percentage point contributions in Q1 and Q2 2021.The detailed BEA data shows that the deceleration in personal consumption was mostly related to a decrease in durable goods consumer spending. This decrease alone subtracted 2.7 percentage points from the U.S. real GDP growth in Q3.  The decline in personal durables purchases was mainly caused by a drop in sales of motor vehicles amid supply chain disruptions and the Delta variant surge. Personal consumption of recreational goods and of furnishings and household equipment also contracted slightly.Meanwhile, expectations for Q4 real GDP growth remain high. Based on currently available data for the main high-frequency indicators, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atalanta estimates U.S. real GDP growth in Q4 2021 of 6.6% SAAR.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Inequality Remains Extremely High //knoema.de/vlgywqb/global-inequality-remains-extremely-high 2021-11-09T14:03:17Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Inequality Remains Extremely High

(09 September 2021) Inequality in the distribution of income is one of the most important measures of the quality of economic development, along with changes in the overall level of per capita income. However, national statistics offices typically devote much less time and resources to investigating income inequality indicators than traditional economic indicators such as GDP. As a result, official statistics on income inequality are scarce, and inconsistent across countries, making it difficult to measure the evolution of inequality at the global level. Working with the World Inequality Database, two researchers from the Paris School of Economics — Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty – have made a significant contribution toward filling this data gap by constructing world income distribution estimates from 1820 to 2020. Some key findings:The level of global income inequality has always been very large and has grown significantly in the industrial era. The ratio of average annual income of the wealthiest 10% of population to the average annual income of the bottom 50% of the population by income level (Top10/Bottom50 ratio) increased from 18.5 to 41.1 between 1820 and 1900 and averaged around 40 between 1900 and 2020.In 2020 the richest 10% of people got over 50% of global income, while the poorest 50% of people got less than 10% of global income. The richest 1% of population got three times more of the world's total income than the poorest 50%. And the richest 0.1% of population had the same amount of income as the poorest 50%. These proportions in global income distribution have not changed significantly since the beginning of the twentieth century. Chancel and Piketty believe decreasing income inequality can be achieved through fiscal revenue sharing, when part of income earned by the richest population is redistributed by government in favor of the poorest poorest. Their estimates show that the U.S. government already redistributes around 7% of national income from the top 10% to the bottom 50% of the U.S. population.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Which Countries Have the Most Ambitious 2030 Emissions-Reduction Targets? //knoema.de/mynafrd/which-countries-have-the-most-ambitious-2030-emissions-reduction-targets 2021-11-08T11:19:10Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Which Countries Have the Most Ambitious 2030 Emissions-Reduction Targets?

Climate change is recognized as a significant issue for people's lives and economic well-being worldwide. Since greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are associated with climate change, many countries have been making efforts to regulate and limit them. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to advance climate change mitigation by committing to national GHG reduction targets. In 2015, the countries submitted their first national strategies, known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs, for reducing their share of greenhouse gases by 2030. The data visualizations below explore GHG emission reductions from 1990 to the present, as well as potential future reductions based on countries' current NDCs.Since 1990, the most significant reductions in GHG emissions have been achieved by the United Kingdom (40.9% decline), Russia (30.9%), and the EU-27 (22.1%). Emissions cuts in the UK and European Union (27) were driven by decarbonization of the energy sector, improving energy efficiency, and structural changes in the economy that shifted energy-intensive industries to the developing world and increased of service-based sectors in GDP. In Russia, GHG emissions declined due to the deep economic crisis of the 1990s that induced industries to close down or substantially reduce output. By the early 2000s, emissions had dropped more than 40% from 1990 levels.Comparing current emissions with 2005 levels, the standout leaders are the UK and Brazil, which have succeeded in decreasing emissions by 30%. The European Union (27) has reduced its emissions by 16% since 2005, while Russia's emissions, in contrast, have grown by 23%.According to the most recently submitted NDCs, the most ambitious goals in emissions reduction by 2030 belong to the UK, the EU-27, and Australia, followed by Brazil and the United States. The Russian NDC reflects a goal to stabilization of emissions on the 70% of 1990 level, or an increase of 12% compared to the 2015 level. Indonesia, according to its latest NDC of 2016, expects a decrease in emissions at 1.6% below 2015 levels (or an increase of almost 64% over 2005). In the best-case scenario, including international support, Indonesia expects to reduce emissions up to 18% below 2015 levels (a 36% rise over 2005).   This dashboard contains data on 10 major economies, 7 of which top the list of the largest GHG emitters on the planet. The proposed actions of these countries will largely determine the extent of future GHG emissions reductions and whether they meet the aims of the Paris Agreement.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Stock Markets Driven by Fed Stimulus //knoema.de/mfklch/stock-markets-driven-by-fed-stimulus 2021-11-02T12:19:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Stock Markets Driven by Fed Stimulus

(29 September 2021) On Sept. 22, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would probably start tightening monetary policy in 2022. Markets hardly noticed the announcement, though, likely because the Fed continues to inject $120 billion of new money into the economy each month.  So far in 2021, the Fed has already purchased U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities worth $1.1 trillion. Given that the expansionary monetary policy after the Great Recession resulted in high dependency of the stock markets on the Fed's assets expansion, shutting down the printing presses would be a difficult decision for the Federal Reserve.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Five Decades of Global Growth Deceleration //knoema.de/ukymsof/five-decades-of-global-growth-deceleration 2021-10-28T08:26:37Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Five Decades of Global Growth Deceleration

(17 September 2021) Data from international organizations such as the U.N. and the International Monetary Fund shows that in the last five decades global economic growth decelerated by almost 50%—from an average 3.9% growth per year in the 1970s to an average 2.3% growth in the 2010s. Current trends in labor, capital, and productivity—the major drivers of economic growth—suggest deceleration will continue long term.Data from the U.N. shows that the global annual growth of population ages 15–64 (which constitutes the labor force) decelerated from 2.2% in 1970 to less than 1% in 2020. And according to U.N. projections, in the next few decades labor force growth will decelerate even further.The impact of capital on global growth can be indirectly estimated through the share of fixed capital investment in world GDP. According to the World Bank, between 1970 and 2019 share of investment in world GDP declined from 25.5% to 23.8%. Typically, the lower the investment to GDP ratio, the slower the economic growth, since the volume of resources allocated for the creation of new production capacities is decreasing relative to final consumption.Global productivity growth has also been declining since 1970. In the 1980s and 1990s the decline of productivity in developed countries was counterbalanced by rising productivity in emerging economies (mainly in China) as result of industrialization, but in the 2010s growth of productivity in China slowed down as well, now that basic infrastructure and industries have been built. There is still potential for productivity gains in India, but India is unlikely to make up for the slowdown in productivity growth in both developed countries and China.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
What if Income Inequality is a Global Issue? //knoema.de/oqddgef/what-if-income-inequality-is-a-global-issue 2021-10-26T19:08:49Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
What if Income Inequality is a Global Issue?

(25 October 2021) The Gini index is one of the traditional measures used to estimate inequality in income distribution at a country level. It shows how far the income distribution between different subsets of a population is from income equality. To estimate a Gini index, national statistical offices (NSOs) need to collect data on personal income for each percentile of population. In this dashboard, the Knoema team uses the same approach to estimate inequality of income distribution at a global level.We used data from the International Monetary Fund on GDP per capita and population for 194 countries, rather than data on per capita income of population percentiles used by NSOs at a country level, to generate a cross-country comparison that reflected countries' shares in the global population.An analysis of a Lorenz curve using estimated 2019 cross-country data shows that global inequality in income distribution is equivalent to a Gini index value of 52 — which indicates extremely high inequality. The poorest 50% of the global population accumulate about 10% of global income, while the richest 20% of the world's population accumulate 70% of global income.To decrease income inequality, individual countries use the mechanisms of fiscal redistribution of income from the richest to the poorest. The same mechanism could hypothetically be implemented at a global level. For example, a 10% global income tax for the 30 richest countries would yield an equivalent of 4.5 trillion international dollars, which could double the per capita income for the 1.3 billion population in the 54 poorest countries.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Fight Against Hunger is Off Track //knoema.de/nmqaouc/the-fight-against-hunger-is-off-track 2021-10-26T08:23:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Fight Against Hunger is Off Track

(19 October 2021) In mid-October the Global Hunger Index released its annual report, which estimates progress in fighting hunger in more than one hundred emerging and developing economies. According to the 2021 Global Hunger Index report, the world will fail to achieve a low level of global hunger in the next decade. Here are key takeaways:The progress in fighting hunger made in recent years can be quickly wiped out by armed conflicts, climate change and the COVID pandemic. The global economy and the world's agricultural and food systems remain highly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change and contagious diseases.According to 2021 estimates, Somalia is the only country currently suffering from an "extremely alarming" level of hunger.  An "alarming" level of hunger is observed in 5 countries — Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, and Yemen. The report identifies the hunger level as "serious" in 31 countries.Over the last decade (2012-2021), hunger increased in 15 countries. The highest increase in hunger index score was observed in Venezuela, where the socio-economic crisis has significantly exacerbated the problem of hunger. Eighty-four countries saw improved hunger levels. Though Somalia made the greatest progress in decreasing hunger, with its hunger index score dropping from 65.1 to 50.8, the severity of hunger in this nation has stayed at extremely high levels for the last two decades. Note: Global Hunger Index scores are calculated from four indicators: undernourishment; child wasting; child stunting; child mortality.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Most Central Banks are Ignoring Rising Inflation Pressure //knoema.de/gmdpxic/most-central-banks-are-ignoring-rising-inflation-pressure 2021-10-21T09:51:32Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Most Central Banks are Ignoring Rising Inflation Pressure

(21 June 2021) Fast post-COVID recovery of consumer demand amid supply chain disruptions has resulted in rising inflation in most countries around the world. In many economies, consumer price inflation (CPI) has already exceeded monetary policy targets, but so far central banks are mostly ignoring the rising inflation on the grounds that the acceleration is caused by temporary factors. The reluctance of monetary authorities to combat rising inflation pressure raises a question of whether the world economy may end up with uncontrollably high inflation by the end of the year.By the middle of June 2021, 36 countries (out of 38 countries whose monetary policy rates are tracked by Bank for International Settlements) have seen accelerated consumer price inflation compared to the end of 2020. And in 15 economies (including the United States), consumer price inflation has already increased above the monetary policy inflation targets.Only three central banks (Turkey, Russia and Brazil) increased their policy rates between the end of 2020 and mid-June 2021 in an effort to cool down inflation. The Bank of Denmark also increased its policy rate by 0.1 percentage points, to -0.5%, but since this rate remains in the negative zone, the increase can hardly be considered a tightening of monetary policy. Note: Monetary policy rate is the rate that is used by central bank to implement or signal its monetary policy stance. It is most commonly set by the central banks policymaking committees (IMF). Monetary policy targets of CPI inflation shown below include upper limit of deviation from target where applicable.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Energy Investment Requirements on the Road to Net Zero //knoema.de/evuhyjf/energy-investment-requirements-on-the-road-to-net-zero 2021-10-20T14:05:48Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Energy Investment Requirements on the Road to Net Zero

(27 September 2021) Reaching the decarbonization goals outlined in the Paris Agreement in order to create a sustainable future energy system will require huge investment by all major economies. This dashboard explores the energy transformation forecast through 2050 from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and uses data from IRENA and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to provide an overview of the current structure, amount, and sources of renewable energy (RE) investments.  The Current Renewable Energy Investments section of this dashboard analyses total annual financial commitments in renewable energy. The dashboard also contains information on finance flows in certain RE projects, giving insight into the public investments existing trends by donor source, technology, and region.IRENA's Transforming Energy Scenario, which involves rapid changes in energy balance, requires world investments in the energy system equaling more than US$110 trillion by mid-century. This scenario requires that at least 34% of the total needed investments, about $37 trillion, be spent on energy efficiency improvements, and 23%, or $24.9 trillion, on renewable energy development. In contrast, the Planned Energy Scenario from IRENA, with a slightly lower investment amount of US$94 trillion by 2050, envisions the greater part of the investment, $33.1 trillion, or 35%, would be distributed to energy supply, while $28.9 trillion, or 31%, would go to energy efficiency measures and only $12.2 trillion, or 13%, to renewables development.The IEA's data, based on the World Energy Investment Report 2021, shows that currently the largest annual renewable electricity investments are in the Asia Pacific region, with $187 billion invested in 2021, followed by Europe ($75 billion), North America ($63 billion), and Latin America ($23 billion; excludes Mexico).Another IRENA source shows that the largest shares of investments in renewable energy in 2019 were invested by China ($90.1 billion), the United States ($59.0 billion), and Europe ($58.4 billion). Ninety-four percent of the money invested in 2019 was allocated for wind and solar energy development, which received $142.7 and $141 billion, respectively.As for RE finance flows, the main directions of money flow, according to IRENA, are towards hydropower and multiple renewables technologies, as well as toward wind and solar energy projects. The leading countries by finance flows in RE projects are Spain, France, India, Paraguay, and Mexico, with the total sum of finance flows in 2020 varying from $376 to $983 million. See also: Scenarios for Energy Transition up to 2050: IEA and BP Projections

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
OECD: How Soaring Home Prices Contribute to Inflation //knoema.de/rtjcypd/oecd-how-soaring-home-prices-contribute-to-inflation 2021-10-19T07:51:24Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
OECD: How Soaring Home Prices Contribute to Inflation

(13 October 2021) Low interest rates, economic stimulus and high uncertainty over the course of the pandemic boosted consumer demand for new homes as well as home prices around the world. To estimate a potential contribution of soaring home prices to overall inflation, we analyzed home price and housing rent data for 33 economies for which data was available in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).OECD housing data for 2010-2021 shows that a one percent increase in home prices can add on average up to 0.5 percentage points to housing rent growth.Given the average housing rent contribution to consumer price index, 0.12 percentage points (observed in OECD countries in 2019), and the OECD average housing rent growth of 2.6% in 2020, we estimate that a one percent increase in home prices on average adds around 0.02 percentage points to the general consumer price index, due to the increase in prices for rental housing.According to OECD data, home prices in OECD countries have increased by 11.2% during the pandemic (Q4 2019 to Q1 2021), which could account for 0.26 percentage points (or 11%) of the 2.2% CPI growth in OECD economies during the same period.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
U.S. Needs More Debt to Sustain Growth //knoema.de/nkzfxg/u-s-needs-more-debt-to-sustain-growth 2021-10-13T09:30:27Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
U.S. Needs More Debt to Sustain Growth

(07 October 2021) At the end of June of 2021, the U.S. government hit the public debt ceiling of $28.4 trillion. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's estimates, under the existing debt limit the U.S. government will have to stop paying on its obligations such as social security programs, salaries and interest payments on treasury securities on October 18.Prolonged debates and lack of consensus in the U.S. Congress on the debt limit led to a stock market decline through September, on the expectation that government spending cuts to sustain the debt level amid high inflation will inevitably lead to an economic downturn.This week, Democrats and Republicans agreed to extend the public debt ceiling until December 3 and allow the US government to borrow an additional $480 billion.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Growing Inequity Highlighted in US President Biden's Inaugural Speech //knoema.de/gixoivf/growing-inequity-highlighted-in-us-president-biden-s-inaugural-speech 2021-10-09T14:16:07Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Growing Inequity Highlighted in US President Biden's Inaugural Speech

(20 January 2020) One of the most sensitive economic effects of COVID is the reality that millions have lost their jobs. And, contrary to economic crises of the past that tended to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the corona-crisis has only widened that gap, a point US President Biden featured in his inaugural address today, "... Folks, this is a time of testing. We face an attack on our democracy and on truth, a raging virus, growing inequity, the sting of systemic racism, a climate in crisis, ..."   Unprecedented government stimulus and the partial cancellation of COVID containment restrictions boosted the US economic recovery and thereby eased the US labor market to steadier ground during 2020. The problem is the recovery has unequally benefited high-wage workers. According to the Economic Tracker from Opportunities Insights, high-wage workers were reemployed by the end of May 2020, while only 80 percent of low wage workers were able to return to work. In December 2020, the number of employed low wage workers dropped still lower to 75 percent of the pre-COVID level.Unequal recovery of labor market for high and low wage workers can partly be explained by unequal opportunities to telework. According to a BLS survey, workers with lower wages and formal educational requirements have far fewer remote work options than high wage employees.In eight US states (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and Vermont) the percent of low wage workers who were unable to return to work is close to or greater than 30 percent. The disproportionately high burden of the COVID pandemic on low wage workers is not localized to the United States only. Research by Eurostat linking the labor market impact of COVID-19 on workers with their income situation also shows that low wage workers in the European Union are under higher risk of temporary lay off/reduced hours and job loss compared to high wage employees. In 2020 income loss by low wage earners was 3-6 times larger than high wage earners in half of the EU Member States.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
LinkUp | US Real Estate Contracting Under Weight of COVID-19 //knoema.de/jgqiodd/linkup-us-real-estate-contracting-under-weight-of-covid-19 2021-10-08T14:15:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
LinkUp | US Real Estate Contracting Under Weight of COVID-19

The real estate world has taken its share of the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, as people empty out of offices, hotels, and malls and work from their homes. Economic activity in construction and real-estate contracted sharply this year under the weight of the pandemic, with the largest decline yet recorded in April, according to the US Federal Reserve. LinkUp jobs data suggests the situation in the real estate industry will remain tough in June.In the three months between February and April, new private housing building permits in the United States declined 30 percent compared to January.  Existing home sales also decreased 25 percent in March-April 2020.Many real estate companies have cut jobs, especially since the second half of March. In May, half of those companies featured below had laid off 30 to 90 percent of their employees. Active jobs listed have dropped by 25 percent since last fall.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US-China Competition: GDP Can Be Misleading //knoema.de/ksstsae/us-china-competition-gdp-can-be-misleading 2021-10-05T08:17:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US-China Competition: GDP Can Be Misleading

(23 September 2021) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has for years been the key economic indicator used for cross-country comparisons. The value of GDP shows how large a country's economy is, and per capita GDP is used to compare countries' productivity and technological development. However, emphasis on these directly measurable indicators often obscures qualitative characteristics of development that can significantly affect the estimates of a country's economic potential.With China becoming an economic superpower, comparison of US and Chinese economic strength has become a regular exercise for experts and research institutions. Such exercises often prioritize cross-country GDP comparison, which shows that China's economy today is 33% smaller compared to the U.S. economy, and shows an even wider gap in productivity/technological development. The most optimistic (for China) calculations indicate that China's GDP per capita is 75% smaller than that of the U.S. However, there are other metrics showing China's capability to challenge the position of the U.S. in the global economy. For example, data from the World Bank shows that China produces two times more industrial goods than the U.S. In addition, trade statistics show that China has closer trade ties with the rest of the world than the United States.But quantity is not the only factor. The gap in economic power between the U.S. and China looks much closer than GDP and productivity data shows when technological and innovation potential is accounted for through indirect measures. For example, the Economic Complexity Index constructed by Harvard’s Growth Lab suggests that China has almost caught up with the United States in the ability to sustain a diverse range of productive know-how, including sophisticated, unique capabilities, and to produce complex products that few other countries can make.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Renewable Energy Sector Provides Millions of Jobs Worldwide //knoema.de/ywbifkc/renewable-energy-sector-provides-millions-of-jobs-worldwide 2021-09-28T16:29:58Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Renewable Energy Sector Provides Millions of Jobs Worldwide

(25 May 2021) The renewable energy sector directly or indirectly employed nearly 11.5 million people in 2019, reflecting a 4% increase over the previous year, according to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Renewable energy (RE) employment has risen 34% percent since 2013, adding almost 3 million new jobs to the global economy. The solar photovoltaic (PV), bioenergy, hydropower, and wind power industries have become the biggest employers of the renewable energy sector. China tops the list of the total number of RE jobs per country, leading other major economies by a large margin. Latvia and Denmark are the top countries in terms of RE share in total employment, with renewables representing 3.79% and 1.5% of jobs, respectively, followed by Croatia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Colombia, and Finland.The solar PV industry employed nearly 3.75 million people worldwide as of the end of 2019, the most recent year for which such data is available. Bioenergy provided 3.58 million jobs, of which 2.5 million were in the liquid biofuels subsector. Nearly 1.96 million people were employed in hydropower, and 1.17 million more worked in the wind energy industry.Employment growth was the highest in the solar PV technology industry, which showed a 65% increase from 2013 to 2019 (almost 1.5 million new jobs added). Employment increased significantly during the same period in the solar heating/cooling industry (an increase of 64%), bioenergy (43%), and wind energy (41%). In contrast, hydropower lost nearly 250 thousand jobs, representing an 11% decrease, over the seven-year period.As for geographical distribution, seven of the ten countries with the most renewable energy jobs are Asian. China accounted for 38% of all existing jobs in the RE sector in 2019, which equals more than 4 million workers. Brazil represented 10% of RE jobs, due to its highly developed hydro energy industry that makes up a 64% share of the country's electricity generation. A 7% share of RE jobs were in India, and 6% in the United States.In the US, more than 755 thousand people were employed in the renewable energy sector, compared with 83.8 thousand workers in the fossil fuel generation and transmission sector. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS),  the number of workers employed in fossil fuel and nuclear electricity generation is expected to decline significantly — by 23.3 thousand and 15.6 thousand jobs, respectively — by 2029. At the same time, the BLS estimates that the number of workers directly employed in renewable electricity generation will grow by 2.7 thousand, to a total of 23.2 thousand people employed, by 2029. NOTE: IRENA's estimates include indirect jobs in manufacturing and jobs in the production of biofuels in addition to the direct jobs count, while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics includes only direct jobs in electric power generation.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US: Small Business Selling Price Indicates Accelerating Inflation //knoema.de/qykdofe/us-small-business-selling-price-indicates-accelerating-inflation 2021-09-28T09:10:29Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US: Small Business Selling Price Indicates Accelerating Inflation

(05 August 2021) The US consumer price inflation (CPI) index is probably the most tracked economic indicator today. The main question: whether the current inflation wave has been driven by temporary factors (as the Federal Reserves hopes) or is something that will turn into a long-term threat to U.S. economic growth. Findings from the small business survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) can shed light on the near-term future.According to the NFIB's small business actual price change indicator, which, when viewed with a six month time lag, can serve as a leading indicator predicting the CPI trend, the number of small businesses revising selling prices upwards has been growing since February 2021. The observed price hikes at small businesses may point to further inflation acceleration in the coming months.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Worldwide: COVID-19 Vaccination Progress Report //knoema.de/ckubibf/worldwide-covid-19-vaccination-progress-report 2021-09-20T07:41:55Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Worldwide: COVID-19 Vaccination Progress Report

(11 February 2021; data updated 22 June 2021) January marked a critical point in the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccinations globally. Kicked off in the United Kingdom in late 2020 with a fully trialed and tested vaccine, Canada, Bahrain, and Mexico and followed soon after. Although Russia and China have been inoculating their citizens with several different vaccines since August 2020, the vaccines are still undergoing late-stage trials. As of January 2021, the United States, China, and the United Kingdom have administered the largest number of coronavirus inoculations, followed by India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil. The United States accounts for 32 percent of all inoculations globally, followed by China (23%), the United Kingdom (10%), and India (5%).Smaller countries with relatively smaller populations and/or higher population density have certain advantages, as evidenced by Israel, which now has more than 60 percent of its population vaccinated against COVID-19. The United Arab Emirates, Seychelles, Bahrain, and Malta, are also among the mix of countries that have achieved relatively higher vaccination rates. These same countries are among those with newly implemented COVID-19 vaccine roll-out programs on larger scales, processes that when implemented by larger countries, like the United States, propel them to the top 10 by vaccination rate.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Freightos | Global Freight Prices Soaring due to Container Shortages //knoema.de/slsatcf/freightos-global-freight-prices-soaring-due-to-container-shortages 2021-08-31T09:14:39Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Freightos | Global Freight Prices Soaring due to Container Shortages

(24 August 2021) As of July 2021, global container freight rates, as measured by the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), increased fourfold over the last year due to the faster than expected recovery of consumer demand, container shortages, and the shift of consumer spending from services to goods.The global container throughput index by the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics, which monitors activity in 82 international ports covering more than 60% of world container handling, increased by 18 points in June year-to-year, and by 10 points from pre-covid levels. According to the IMF, global import value recovered in about six months, returning to pre-COVID levels by November after dropping sharply in the first half of 2020, and reached a historical high in spring 2021. High shipping costs may be a factor in increased actual and expected inflation since importers can pass increased freight rates on to customers. The outsize growth of shipping costs has been attributed primarily to the fact that economies began to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic faster than expected, leaving many ports unprepared for the resurgence in traffic. The shift in consumer spending from services to goods and inventory re-building by businesses added to the upward pressure on shipping prices. High freight rates resulted in improved performance for some of the largest shipping companies from the United States and East Asia, such as Moller-Maersk and Orient Overseas International, whose share prices increased by 60% and 120% respectively in 2020. At the end of Q1 2021, share prices were up 154% year-over-year for Moller-Maersk and 414% for Orient Overseas. However, analysts from Fitch expect prices to moderate in the medium term due to high competition in the sector, ongoing trade tensions, uncertainty about economic recovery paths, and emission regulations. Regional analysis shows that the greatest increase in freight rates is associated with China and East Asia:The cost of freight from China and East Asia to Northern Europe and North America has risen 7 times since the beginning of 2020.The cost of shipping to China increased by two to three times.The cost of freight from America to Europe has hardly changed, while the freight rates from Europe to America increased by 1.5 times.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Scenarios for Energy Transition up to 2050: IEA and BP Projections //knoema.de/ginagwg/scenarios-for-energy-transition-up-to-2050-iea-and-bp-projections 2021-08-24T11:38:48Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Scenarios for Energy Transition up to 2050: IEA and BP Projections

(16 August 2021) In order to limit the rise in global temperatures to the targets established in the Paris agreement, economies need to significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The most developed countries, as well as the biggest emitters, are announcing targets designed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and even earlier. Achieving these goals, however, will require significantly restructuring of the energy sector to use carbon-free (renewable and nuclear) energy sources and low-carbon fuels (biofuels, hydrogen). This dashboard presents forecasts from the two leading international agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BP International, for ongoing changes in energy demand and supply in the coming decades under a variety of scenarios. The IEA presented two forecasts (the Stated Policies Scenario and the Sustainable Development Scenario) in its September 2020 World Energy Outlook, as well as a third forecast in its Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap published in May 2021. The first two scenarios show the potential future shifts in demand dependent on the degree of future changes that occur. The Roadmap forecast, on the other hand, shows the changes that would need to be implemented in order to reach carbon neutrality by the mid 21st century. Scenario details and visualizations can be found below. Some highlights:Under the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the most rapid shift in primary energy demand will occur in Europe and the United States, which expect a decrease of 227 and 187 million metric tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in energy demand, respectively, by 2030. Global energy demand in coal, under the STEPS forecast, will drop by 271 Mtoe during the period from 2019 to 2030, while demand for oil and natural gas will grow by 249 and 475 Mtoe, respectively.Under the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), on the other hand, global coal demand would shrink by 1,531 Mtoe by 2030, and oil demand by 562 Mtoe, while natural gas demand would be unchanged. Renewable energy demand, in contrast, would grow by 1,514 Mtoe by the end of the decade.The IEA's "Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap" shows that the share of renewables in the energy supply should reach 66% by 2050 to meet the net-zero emission goal, while in electricity generation the share of renewables should be 88% by 2050. Overall energy demand and supply are expected to decrease due to electrification of transport and improvements in energy efficiency, while electric power generation will increase to 2.6 times the current level. BP International presented three different energy production and consumption scenarios in its 2020 Energy Outlook: Business-As-Usual, Rapid Transition, and Net Zero. Details and visualizations for each scenario can be found below. Highlights:The Business-As-Usual scenario expects that the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand would decrease to 66.6% by 2050 from the current 84.6%. Energy demand would increase by the middle of the century, reflected in a projected growth in gas consumption of 37%, as well as growth of 492% in renewable energy consumption.In the Rapid Transition scenario, fossil fuels would represent 39.6% of primary energy demand by 2050. Energy demand would rise slightly by 2050; fossil fuels energy consumption would decrease, including natural gas consumption, which would decline after reaching its peak in 2035; renewable energy consumption would rise dramatically, from the current 27.1 exajoules to 277 exajoules at mid-century.Under the Net Zero scenario, the energy demand would also rise slightly by 2050, and fossil fuels would represent 21.7% of primary energy demand. The share of renewables in energy demand could reach 68% by 2050. In India, the share of non-fossil fuels (including nuclear energy) could rise to 76% of total consumption by 2050; the share could rise to 67% in China and to an average of 73% among OECD member states. 

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
2020: The Second Hottest Year on Earth //knoema.de/rokptlg/2020-the-second-hottest-year-on-earth 2021-08-23T09:24:55Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
2020: The Second Hottest Year on Earth

(9 February 2021) 2020 was the second hottest year on Earth since the 1880s, according to the 2020 Global Climate Report from The National Centers for Environmental Information. For the northern hemisphere, the 2020 land and ocean surface temperature was the highest ever recorded in the 141-year reporting history at +1.28°C (+2.30°F) above average. This was 0.06°C (0.11°F) higher than the previous record set in 2016. The southern hemisphere was hot last year as well, reporting the fifth highest land and ocean surface temperature on record.  

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
IPCC: Climate Change Is Irreversible Over Thousands of Years //knoema.de/hzpkgke/ipcc-climate-change-is-irreversible-over-thousands-of-years 2021-08-20T05:34:50Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
IPCC: Climate Change Is Irreversible Over Thousands of Years

(10 August 2021) "Climate change is irreversible." This was perhaps the most significant conclusion of the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report, a product of the combined efforts of 234 scientists from 66 countries, projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions of the globe, with increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons, and shorter cold seasons. Other key findings from the IPCC report:Sea level will continue to rise, and the likelihood of crossing the global temperature increase level of 1.5°C (relative to the preindustrial period, approximated by the period 1850-1900) in the next few decades is very high.The observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities. Based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, the IPCC estimates that human activities are responsible for 95% of observed global warming.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Migrants and Wealth: What is the Long-Term Effect? //knoema.de/xxqnrxg/migrants-and-wealth-what-is-the-long-term-effect 2021-08-19T05:28:23Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Migrants and Wealth: What is the Long-Term Effect?

(09 August, 2021)  The inflow of immigrants and migrant workers is often perceived extremely negatively by the existing population of a region, due to expectations that immigrants may represent a threat to cultural values, security, and availability of jobs, not to mention the fact that working migrants and some immigrants often send the largest share of their income back to the country of origin, which can undermine the stability of balance of payments. Is the negative attitude toward the inflow of migrants justified from the point of view of long-term economic development? Let's take a look at what data shows.We compared the change in per capita GDP and the change in share of foreign and foreign-born persons in the population over the last thirty years for the highest-income countries, the largest economies, and countries with the largest stock of foreign migrants, excluding economies highly dependent on oil and gas exports*. The data shows that a higher increase in the share of stock of foreign migrants in a population from 1990 to 2019 is associated with a higher increase in per capita income, suggesting that the long-term effect of immigrant and migrant inflow on the growth of personal wealth of the established population is most likely positive. *Per capita income in economies highly dependent on oil and gas exports is mostly determined by the oil and gas world price movements, which makes difficult to estimate the impact of other factors.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Eurozone: Governments Are Paying Less for Higher Debts //knoema.de/lqbsckg/eurozone-governments-are-paying-less-for-higher-debts 2021-08-17T13:33:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Eurozone: Governments Are Paying Less for Higher Debts

(05 August 2021) To support the economy and health systems during the coronavirus crisis, governments had to increase spending, financing the increase mostly with growing debt. However, buildup in government debt doesn't necessary lead to the deterioration of fiscal stability, at least not in the short term. Eurozone countries, which on average increased government debt by 14% of GDP during 2020, now pay even less to serve higher debts than they did before the pandemic began.In 2020, government debt in eurozone countries increased by an average of 14.1 percentage points, to 98.4% of GDP. In 14 of the 19 eurozone countries, government debt increased by more than 10 percentage points. Government debt interest expenditures in the eurozone declined from 2.4% in 2019 to 1.5% of GDP in 2020, despite the increase in overall debt. For individual eurozone countries the decrease in interest expenditures ranged from 0.4 to 1.8 percentage points.Paying less total interest despite larger amounts of debt has become possible due to extremely low government bond yields. To keep government bond yields low, the European Central Bank has been purchasing public sector securities since the start of pandemic under the pandemic emergency purchase program and public sector purchase program. Since March 2020, the ECB has already purchased 1.6 trillion euro of government debt.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
505 Economics | Monthly GDP Estimates at Local Level //knoema.de/xwoynp/505-economics-monthly-gdp-estimates-at-local-level 2021-08-11T17:40:36Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
505 Economics | Monthly GDP Estimates at Local Level

(30 June 2021) According to 505 Economics, most sub-national regions of the United Kingdom — referred to as NUTS 2* regions — responded uniformly to the first lockdown in April 2020, with economies contracting by approximately 20%. A similar pattern could be seen at a more granular NUTS 3 level*. However, local economies (NUTS 3) do not appear to have returned to pre-COVID levels of economic growth. As opposed to Eurostat or national statistics offices who provide national GDP estimated on a quarterly basis and subnational — on an annual basis, 505 Economics provides monthly estimates of GDP at a local level for 26 European countries. They use high-resolution satellite imagery and transform luminosity data into GDP estimates using machine learning.      *NUTS or Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics is the European Union's geocode standard for referencing the subdivisions of countries for statistical purposes.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Productivity Growth in the 21st Century is Still Driven by Industrialisation //knoema.de/xffopvc/productivity-growth-in-the-21st-century-is-still-driven-by-industrialisation 2021-08-05T14:06:15Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Productivity Growth in the 21st Century is Still Driven by Industrialisation

(30 July 2021) What drives economic growth? Economists give a variety of answers to this question, ranging from cheap labor or endowment with ample natural resources to institutional environment and the development of digital technologies. The answer policymakers choose determines economic policy, which ultimately affects how different sectors of the economy develop. Since the industrial revolution, development of the real sector (which includes agriculture, manufacturing, construction and transportation) has been the key to rapid growth in productivity and fast economic growth. Today the real sector's share in most countries' GDP has substantially declined, while the service sector, even in many low-income countries, accounts for the largest share of GDP. The question for economic policy today is: Can the service sector, which includes trade, business, professional, and government services as well as healthcare and education, play the same role today as the real sector did in the past as an engine for economic growth? Some economists insist that deindustrialisation doesn't affect economic growth negatively, since the real driver of growth is now the service sector. Let's look at what data shows. In this dashboard, we investigate which major sectors of the economy drive the growth of per capita income — a proxy for productivity, which, together with the growth of population, determines overall economic growth. We focus on productivity here because this component of growth is susceptible to the influence of economic policy, while government policy is less likely to significantly influence demographic trends.Development of the service sector, which contributed to high per capita income growth in 1980-2000, has decelerated the growth of personal wealth in the last two decades. Since 2000, per capita income has been growing more slowly in economies where the service sector has the highest share in GDP.Data shows that in the last two decades per capita income grew faster in economies where the real sector represents a higher share.The contribution of mining activities to productivity growth is determined by long-term commodity price movements. Periods of positive correlation between per capita income growth and the mining sector's share in GDP coincide with periods of rising energy prices. On the one hand, this result is expected. By its very nature, the service sector provides less opportunity for productivity growth: how do we increase the productivity of a school teacher who graduates 60 students each year throughout his or her working life? Accurate measurement of productivity in many service industries is a major headache for economists. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that despite all the expectations that the services sector can be an "unlimited" source of high-paid jobs creation, real sector seems to constitute the strongest basis for sustained productivity growth.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
What About the Carbon Footprint of Fiat Money, Elon Musk? //knoema.de/hatanue/what-about-the-carbon-footprint-of-fiat-money-elon-musk 2021-08-04T11:21:08Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
What About the Carbon Footprint of Fiat Money, Elon Musk?

(24 May 2021) On May 12, 2021, Elon Musk announced that Tesla had suspended accepting payments in bitcoin for its cars because of environmental concerns related to bitcoin mining.  Since the first block of bitcoin was mined back in 2009, the consumption of electricity energy need to mine bitcoins has increased to estimated 150 TWh per year — which exceeds the electricity consumption of such countries as the Netherlands, the Philippines, and Kazakstan. An extrapolation from bitcoin mining trends even suggests that bitcoin emissions alone could push global warming above 2°C.  But even if this projection proves accurate, it is not expected to happen until sometime between 2040 and 2050. Another study comparing the sustainability of different currencies systems shows that today, bitcoin is much more environmentally friendly than paper money, represented by notes and digital banking deposits.The maintenance of modern fiat money system, including banking deposits and paper money, produces almost 400 million metric tons of CO2 each year, which exceeds the amount of CO2 produced by bitcoin mining by more than four times. Given Elon Musk's environmental concerns, should Tesla consider giving its cars for free? Since fiat money produces even more emissions than bitcoin, a truly sustainable option may be hard to find.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Military Spending is Higher, and Growing Faster, than Other Countries //knoema.de/qcmloo/us-military-spending-is-higher-and-growing-faster-than-other-countries 2021-08-04T11:18:00Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Military Spending is Higher, and Growing Faster, than Other Countries

(19 May 2021) The defense industry is one of the few that have not taken a hit in the economic aftermath of COVID-19. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2020 most countries increased their military spending from the previous year or kept it unchanged. Only 36 out of 148 countries analyzed by the Institute have cut military spending by more than 5% year-over-year.In 2020, world military expenditure increased to $2 trillion, which is equivalent to 2.3% of global GDP. 2020 is the second consecutive year in which the share of military expenditure in global GDP has increased. Between 2009 and 2018, the share of military expenditure in global GDP had declined from 2.6% to 2.1%.The US leads the world in overall military spending, with annual expenditures more than twice the defense budget of the next largest military spender, China. In 2019 and 2020, US military expenditures also grew faster than those in any of the next ten highest military spenders, which include China, India, and Russia. US defense spending now exceeds the aggregate military expenditure of the next ten countries put together.Analysis of data for 1992-2020 shows a correlation between the ratio of US military expenditure to other major countries and the world military expenditure grows. The growth in world spending reflects not only the increase in US military expenditure, but also the acceleration of military expenditure in countries seeking to preserve military parity.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Vaccination May Not Be a Panacea for Economic Growth //knoema.de/hycvhwe/vaccination-may-not-be-a-panacea-for-economic-growth 2021-08-04T11:13:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Vaccination May Not Be a Panacea for Economic Growth

(26 May 2021) From the time that the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy in the first quarter of 2020, progress in vaccination and vaccine efficacy have been cited by international organizations and research institutions as a key factor for economic recovery.   The first COVID-19 vaccination programs launched in December 2020, and by the end of March 2021 countries like Israel, the UK, and the US had already made considerable vaccination progress. An analysis of the latest available data on retail sales, industrial production, and vaccination progress for 30 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries allows us to test the hypothesis about vaccinations' role in economic recovery.Volume indices of industrial production and retail sales for OECD countries show that consumer demand and industrial production had recovered to pre-pandemic levels by January 2021, long before vaccination could help any country reach herd immunity.A comparison of vaccination progress (measured as the total number of vaccinations per 100 population) at the end of March 2021 with growth of industrial production and retail sales in March 2021 compared with January -February 2020, looking at 30 OECD countries, provides little evidence that the pace of economic recovery depends on the pace of vaccinations. The economies of Israel, the UK, and the US, which outpace other countries in the vaccination race, are experiencing the same speed of recovery as many other countries with much more modest vaccination progress. The pandemic is undoubtedly having a serious negative impact on some industries like international tourism and passenger aviation. Nevertheless, data suggests that the global economy had adapted to COVID-19 before vaccines could have noticeable positive health and economic impact.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Nuclear Weapons Inventory: Good and Bad News for Peace //knoema.de/ptsivab/global-nuclear-weapons-inventory-good-and-bad-news-for-peace 2021-08-04T10:50:22Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Nuclear Weapons Inventory: Good and Bad News for Peace

(14 June 2021) According to the latest report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), due to the USA and Russia dismantling retired warheads, the global nuclear warheads inventory decreased by 320 units between Jan. 1, 2020 and Jan. 1, 2021, continuing an overall decline in global stock. And this is a good news. The bad news is that at the beginning of 2021 the number of deployed warheads (warheads placed on missiles or located on bases with operational forces) increased for the first time since 2017.  Over the course of the last year the US and Russia increased the number of deployed warheads by 50 and 55 units, respectively. In addition, other nuclear powers, led by China, have continued to increase their nuclear arsenals even as the US and Russia reduce theirs. Collectively, China, the UK, North Korea, India, and Pakistan increased their inventory of nuclear warheads by 61 units from the start of 2020 to the start of 2021. The other two countries that possess nuclear weapons, France and Israel, maintained previous inventory levels. With 350 warheads, China now ranks third among nuclear powers, having surpassed France in 2020.   Note:  The data on this page represents all countries that have nuclear weapons.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Major Fiat Currencies Can't Compete With Gold //knoema.de/jrbpvod/major-fiat-currencies-can-t-compete-with-gold 2021-08-04T10:34:12Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Major Fiat Currencies Can't Compete With Gold

(13 July 2021) In 1971, to prevent inflation-induced outflow of gold from the country, US President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of US dollars to gold at a fixed exchange rate.This decision, which was followed by similar measures in other countries, ended the post-World War II period during which the value of national currencies remained unchanged relative to the value of gold. The decades of post-Gold Standard history show that none of major fiat currencies have been able to maintain their purchasing power against gold in the long run.The major currencies lost from 78% (Swiss franc, Japanese yen) to 98% (Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah) of their value relative to gold between 1979 and 2021. Limited supply of gold, and the further constraint of the slow growth of gold mine production, protect gold from inflation, as opposed to the often emission-based increase in the paper money supply.In recession and recovery periods, gold outperforms not only individual currencies but also other asset prices. For example, during the great recession and recovery (a period between Q1 2008 and Q1 2010 which saw the decline and recovery of global GDP), the price of gold increased 35% compared to its pre-crisis level in Q4 2007. Prices for other assets — stocks, homes, and commodities — declined by 29%, 12% and 7% respectively.  The same pattern has repeated during the COVID crisis: by Q1 2021* gold gained 26% compared to Q4 2019, outperforming other assets. *the most recent period for which data is available for all asset categories. Global GDP is expected to recover to Q4 2019 level in Q2-Q3 2021. Note: Aggregate asset prices shown below are the GDP weighted averages of asset benchmark indices for UK, Germany, France, Japan, and the US. Asset price indices for individual countries other than the US were converted to equivalent US dollars for the purpose of comparison.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Carbon Pricing Initiatives Are Gaining Momentum //knoema.de/mwbxule/carbon-pricing-initiatives-are-gaining-momentum 2021-08-04T10:25:10Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Carbon Pricing Initiatives Are Gaining Momentum

(26 July 2021) According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021, there are 64 carbon pricing schemes in operation around the world today, covering over 21% of global emissions and generating over $50 billion of revenue per year.Though the share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions covered by carbon pricing initiatives is growing fast, with a threefold increase over the last decade, experts note that thus far less than 4% of global emissions are covered by a carbon price higher than $40 per ton of carbon equivalent — the price they warn is needed to meet the 2C target (the goal of keeping global temperature rise to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels).Of the ten largest producers of GHG emissions, six — the US, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Iran — have not yet introduced national-level carbon pricing schemes. Together, these six countries account for over 30% of global GHG emissions. Note: To discourage consumption of carbon-intensive resources and services, the government sets a price (or a carbon tax) that emitters must pay for each ton of greenhouse gas emissions they emit. Businesses and consumers will take steps, such as switching fuels or adopting new technologies, to reduce their emissions to avoid paying the tax. And government will redistribute the revenue from carbon pricing to increase investment in green energy, carbon free technologies and climate adaptation. (C2ES).

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
A Decade of Change: How Renewables Became Competitive with Fossil Fuels //knoema.de/fmzvyg/a-decade-of-change-how-renewables-became-competitive-with-fossil-fuels 2021-07-30T05:06:04Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
A Decade of Change: How Renewables Became Competitive with Fossil Fuels

(27 July 2021) A decade ago, when renewable technologies were not widespread and were less efficient, the cost of energy from renewable sources, especially solar, was too high to be competitive with fossil fuels. After ten years of development, though, renewable power generation costs have fallen dramatically, driven by steadily improving technologies, economies of scale, and other factors. The cost reduction has been the highest for wind and solar technologies, which are nearing the lower bound of the fossil fuels price range and becoming competitive with traditional fuels.The global weighted-average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar photovoltaic (PV) power fell by a dramatic 85% between 2010 and 2020, from a value of 0.381 USD/kWh in 2010 to 0.057 USD/kWh in 2020. The LCOE of concentrating solar power (CSP) has decreased by 68% since 2010,  reaching 0.108 USD/kWh — a tremendous 49% year-over-year drop — in 2020. However, despite the sharp reduction, CSP remains the most expensive renewable technology and can't currently compete with fossil fuels. Onshore and offshore wind projects have experienced global weighted-average LCOE declines of 55% and 48%, respectively, since 2010. The cost of onshore wind power decreased from 0.089 USD/kWh to 0.040 USD/kWh, dropping below the lower end of the fossil-fuel cost range, 0.060 USD/kWh. This makes it the cheapest world renewable power technology in 2020, even cheaper than hydropower (LCOE of 0.044 USD/kWh). Onshore and offshore wind experienced a moderate 11% and 9% year-over-year cost reduction, respectively, from 2019 to 2020.The capacity factor of solar, wind, and hydro technologies has also improved during the past decade. The growth in capacity factor since 2010 ranges from 4% for hydropower to 40% for CSP technologies.  

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness In Data | Over 120 Countries at Risk for New COVID Spikes //knoema.de/vzmsqj/covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-data-over-120-countries-at-risk-for-new-covid-spikes 2021-07-29T14:54:41Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness In Data | Over 120 Countries at Risk for New COVID Spikes

(Published: 23 June 2021. Updated: 29 July 2021) Since the beginning of the pandemic, vaccination has been seen by many experts as a key unknown in the post-COVID economic recovery puzzle. While countries' progress in COVID vaccinations can be tracked directly, cross-country comparisons of data on COVID-19 numbers and vaccination progress also make it possible to begin to examine how effective vaccination has been in preventing the spread of the disease and minimizing its consequences. In this dashboard we compare the progress in COVID vaccinations (measured as the total number of vaccines administrated per hundred population) with the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths across more than 170 countries, using data collected by Our World In Data.  What we discovered:We did not initially find a strong inverse relationship between vaccination progress and the number of daily COVID-19 cases, nor a particularly strong inverse relationship between vaccinations and COVID deaths. This is perhaps to be expected; besides the percentage of a population that is vaccinated, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths depends on many other factors such as the stringency of anti-COVID restrictions, the upward/downward phase of the pandemic wave, access to health care services and resources, different virus strains, and the variety of vaccines used. The reliability and consistency of COVID-19 statistics may also be a factor.That said, when several outliers are excluded, the remaining countries' data demonstrates the expected pattern: the more people in a country get the vaccine, the lower the number of COVID-19 deaths. Countries where the number of vaccine doses administered exceeds 60 per hundred population register fewer than four new deaths per million population per day on average. The outliers — countries that have relatively high number of COVID-19 deaths as well as strong progress in vaccination (over 80 vaccines administrated per hundred population) — are Chile, Mongolia, Seychelles, and Uruguay. Three counties from this list — Chile, Seychelles, and Uruguay — used primarily Chinese-made vaccines.In terms of daily COVID-19 cases, the comparison with current vaccination rates indicates that countries with higher progress in vaccination can have the same number of new cases per million per day as countries with a lower proportion of the population vaccinated, suggesting that vaccination alone isn't preventing the spread of the virus, at least not at current vaccination rates.These numbers suggest that widespread vaccination does have the potential to dramatically curb COVID's impact — but they also highlight the risk for countries with low vaccination rates. Based on the cutoff points noted above for decreasing death rates, more than 120 countries may be at significant risk for new deadly waves of COVID-19.A comparison of the COVID-19 death rates among major world economies shows a significant difference between countries with very high and very low vaccination rates. Those with slow vaccination progress have not been able to reduce their COVID deaths; in Indonesia and Russia the number of new COVID deaths has increased in recent months, and Brazil has struggled to recover from a major surge. In the US, the UK, Canada, and Israel, where vaccination rates are much higher, the number of deaths has declined, though the UK has experienced an upsurge in recent weeks. On the other hand, the UK and some other European countries where cases are increasing serve as a reminder that vaccination progress is not a guarantee against a new surge in COVID cases. Note: Knoema's analysis cannot be used for the purpose of making any decisions related to vaccination. It is intended to be used for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
International Carbon Tax: Who Will Pay for The EU's Green Future? //knoema.de/pgtukpc/international-carbon-tax-who-will-pay-for-the-eu-s-green-future 2021-07-29T11:06:21Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
International Carbon Tax: Who Will Pay for The EU's Green Future?

(19 July 2021) As a part of the European Green Deal, the European Commission has presented a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) for selected sectors aimed at addressing the risk of climate change by reducing GHG emissions in the European Union and globally. The current list of CBAM goods include five broad commodity groups — aluminum, cement, electricity, fertilizers, and iron and steel — but the list may be extended in the future. To ensure that the price of imports more accurately reflects their carbon content, EU imports of CBAM goods (or domestic consumption of imported goods) will be subject to a carbon tax, which is expected to bring around 10 billion euro of additional revenue per year into the EU budget. The current plan is for the CBAM to be fully implemented in 2026, after a 2023–2025 transition period during which declarants of imported CBAM goods will have to report, on a quarterly basis, the actual embedded emissions in goods imported, detailing direct and indirect emissions as well as any carbon price paid abroad.2019* data on EU-27 imports of CBAM goods shows that exporters in Russia, China, and Turkey will suffer the most. Together, these three countries supply 40% of total EU-27 imports of CBAM goods.With 2019 export volumes and the current carbon price of $44 per metric ton of CO2, the new carbon tax on CBAM goods exported to EU-27 would amount to US$663 million annually on goods from Russia and $240 and $179 million, respectively, on goods from China and Turkey, according to CBAM ad valorem equivalent estimates from the UNCTAD.Total 2019 EU-27 imports of CBAM goods came to $60 billion, including $39 billion of steel and $14 billion of aluminum, indicating that the producers of industrial metals will be the largest payers of the international carbon tax. *2020 data on global trade by commodity and partner is available at Knoema. This dashboard focuses on 2019 data, which is more likely to be representative of typical EU CBAM imports given the global economic and trade disruptions of 2020. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
QuERI International | The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of the Global Economy //knoema.de/fdhvjmb/queri-international-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-future-of-the-global-economy 2021-07-28T17:09:08Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
QuERI International | The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of the Global Economy

(15 January 2021)Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. In a world where the policy responses to COVID-19 vary from indifference to economic shut-ins for weeks and months at a time, the result is an economic reality that feels akin to wartime disruption.  The nature of the COVID-19 disruption is utterly unique. Some sectors of the economy are closed down or severely restricted while others are left to work as they see fit. Because of interlinkages between economies, only a modeling system capable of allowing for the interindustry links as well as global linkages to manage some of the impacts and assumptions outside of economic factors can offer the possibility of projecting the economic effects. Quantitative Economic Research International (QuERI) offers one such model, with a sector specific approach that may be better suited to analyzing the effect of a government induced shutdown and reopening of economies. General adjustment factors in the QuERI model are developed based on the degree of virus and the stage of development to disturb the model’s baseline (December, 2019) result.  Below we consider the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic through a macroeconomic lens, including adjustments to gross domestic product, private consumption, business investment, government expenditures, exports and imports, as well as financial variables, including prices, exchange rates, and interest rates.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Main Sources of Plastic Waste in the Ocean //knoema.de/qjigabe/the-main-sources-of-plastic-waste-in-the-ocean 2021-07-13T08:37:09Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
The Main Sources of Plastic Waste in the Ocean

(09 June 2021) Global mass production of synthetic polymers started in the 1950s, and the first scientific papers warning about negative impacts of plastic waste on ocean ecosystems appeared in early 1970s. More than 50 years after plastic pollution was recognized as a problem affecting the marine environment, ocean health, food safety, human health, and coastal tourism, we still don't know how much plastic has accumulated in the ocean or how much new plastic ends up in the ocean each year.  A recent study by Lourens Meijer et al. sheds additional light on sources and amounts of plastic pollution. The study estimates that out of a total of 61.7 million tons of mismanaged plastic waste generated globally each year, one million tons of plastic waste enter the ocean via rivers and coast lines — making up 80% of ocean plastic pollution.The study found that more than 1000 rivers account for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the ocean, suggesting that plastic pollution was more widespread than previously thought. Prior studies suggested that most of the plastic pollution reaching the ocean was concentrated in just 20 to 30 rivers.The top five largest emitters of plastic waste into the ocean are Asian countries — the Philippines, India, Malaysia, China, and Indonesia. Together these five countries account for more than 60% of plastic waste pollution reaching the ocean via rivers. Forty-three of the top 50 plastic-emitting rivers are located in Asia, and nine of them are Philippines rivers. Note: Estimates are based on observations for 2015. Data shown in this dashboard can be useful in estimating countries' composite ESG rankings.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Carbon Majors' GHG Footprint Revealed //knoema.de/espfiuf/carbon-majors-ghg-footprint-revealed 2021-07-13T08:36:36Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Carbon Majors' GHG Footprint Revealed

(10 June 2021) While 30% of the world's largest corporations have already made a commitment to reducing carbon emissions, there are other companies whose economic activity is inextricably linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and for whom reducing their carbon footprint is barely feasible — the so-called "carbon majors." In its 2020 Carbon Majors report, the Climate Accountability Institute estimates that between 1965 and 2018, 493 billion tons of greenhouse gases (in CO2 equivalent), or 35% of global GHG emissions from fossil fuels and cement production, were emitted from the combustion of coal, oil, and gas produced by twenty major fossil fuel companies.4.3% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion and cement production between 1965 and 2018 can be attributed to Saudi Aramco, one of the largest public companies in the world.The list of top twenty carbon majors also includes four US companies, which taken together are responsible for more than 8% of global CO2 emissions from 1965 through 2018. Note: List of fossil fuel majors doesn't necessary corresponds to the list of carbon majors. List of fossil fuel majors is usually comprised of largest fossil fuels producers ranked by market value, annual revenue or amount of produced fossil fuels. List of carbon majors includes companies ranked by the amount of greenhouse gasses emitted in the process of production and from the combustion of produced fossil fuels.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Globalization: Small Countries are Gaining //knoema.de/zoaapkf/globalization-small-countries-are-gaining 2021-07-12T06:40:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Globalization: Small Countries are Gaining

(06 July 2021) Globalization — the reduction of barriers to international trade and cross border capital and labor flows — has been a major driver for the global economy in the past few decades. The rise of the global economic model has undeniably provided benefits, but the degree of success differs across countries. To measure how different countries have fared in the more economically open world, we compared the ratios of countries' per capita GDP to the US per capita GDP in 1990 and 2019. The change in the ratio over the last 30 years reflects how countries improved or lost their position in the global economy.The cross-country comparison shows that small non-energy-exporting countries in Europe and Asia — like Macao (special administrative region of China), Ireland, Luxembourg, Singapore, and South Korea — were the most successful in the global competition.On the other hand, the relative economic strength of oil- and gas-exporting countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain deteriorated the most.The US's major geopolitical rivals, China and Russia, achieved more GDP per capita growth than the US, while large western European economies held relatively steady in comparison with the US.With a few exceptions, the relative economic power of most countries in Africa and the Americas either deteriorated, as in Brazil, South Africa, and Algeria, or held steady.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Corporate Income Redistribution Plan May Increase Multinational Enterprises' Tax Burden by $150 Billion //knoema.de/egfelzb/corporate-income-redistribution-plan-may-increase-multinational-enterprises-tax-burden-by-150-billio 2021-07-12T06:40:13Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Corporate Income Redistribution Plan May Increase Multinational Enterprises' Tax Burden by $150 Billion

(05 July 2021) At the beginning of July 2021, 130 countries and territories joined a plan, developed in negotiations coordinated by the OECD, to reform the international taxation system and ensure that multinational enterprises pay a fair share of tax wherever they operate. The plan is expected to be implemented starting in 2023. Key outcomes of the initiative:Taxing rights on more than $100 billion of profits are expected to be reallocated annually from multinational enterprises' home countries to the markets where they have business activities and earn profits, regardless of whether firms have a physical presence there.Countries have agreed to use a new global minimum corporate income tax rate of 15% to limit competition over corporate income tax.Global minimum corporate income tax is expected to generate $150 billion in additional global tax revenues annually. Ireland and some other tax havens whose current corporate tax is lower than 15% have not signed the deal, fearing an outflow of multinational enterprises from their jurisdictions. The countries currently endorsing the plan represent more than 90% of global GDP.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Delta Variant is Spreading Rapidly Around the Globe //knoema.de/qczzikc/delta-variant-is-spreading-rapidly-around-the-globe 2021-07-09T08:07:46Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Delta Variant is Spreading Rapidly Around the Globe

(06 July 2021) According to GISAID Initiative, the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, first found in India in April 2021, had been detected at least in 80 countries by the end of June. The Delta* variant is considered by scientists to be more contagious than the COVID-19 strains identified previously. According to a statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O), the Delta variant can have a 40% transmission advantage over the Alpha variant, which was already 50% more transmittable that the strain first registered in China in the end of 2019. Cross-country comparisons between the spread of the Delta variant, measured by the share of SARS-CoV-2 samples sequenced from June 1 to June 29 that were identified as a Delta variant, and growth in new COVID-19 cases and deaths suggests that the Delta variant is contributing to new COVID-19 upsurges: In 50% of countries (6 out of 12) where the Delta variant share of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples exceeds 80%, the number of daily COVID-19 cases increased over the last three weeks, with increases ranging from 120% to 340%. In the remaining six countries with a high percentage of Delta variants, the number of new daily cases held steady or decreased slightly.Growth in new COVID cases was observed in 38% of countries (3 out of 8) where the Delta variant share ranges between 50% and 70% of the sequenced samples.Only 25% of the 60 countries where the Delta variant share among sequenced samples is below 40% saw an increase in the number of new daily COVID-19 cases over the same time period.  *Includes the Delta and Delta Plus variants

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Tourism Industry COVID Risk Scoreboard: Travel & Tourism Held Hostage by Coronavirus //knoema.de/ymomxcd/tourism-industry-covid-risk-scoreboard-travel-tourism-held-hostage-by-coronavirus 2021-07-08T11:41:13Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Tourism Industry COVID Risk Scoreboard: Travel & Tourism Held Hostage by Coronavirus

(2 July 2021) Though travel and tourism stocks recovered to a pre-crisis level by the end of 2020, financial statement data shows that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a strong negative impact on the revenues of companies in the tourism industry. In Q1 2021, sales of Booking Holdings Inc., Expedia Inc. and TripAdvisor Inc. were down 60-65% compared to the same quarter a year ago. This and other data on the pandemic points to a subdued and protracted recovery for the tourism sector. The shape of that recovery will depend largely on what happens with COVID-19. In this dashboard we have put together pandemic-related statistics for 48 countries that account for more than 70% of world tourism arrivals and departures as a resource to help users to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on international tourism flows.The fourth global wave of the pandemic ended in June of 2021, but as the Delta variant of virus spreads around the glob the number of new COVID-19 cases recently began to rise again in Europe, North America and Africa. Lack of effective political leadership has hampered efforts to halt the pandemic in Latin America. As of June 29, the number of new COVID-19 cases was higher than it had been a week earlier in 28 out of the 48 countries covered in this dashboard. The upsurges in COVID-19 cases in Dec. 2020 through Jan. 2021 and the spring of 2021 correlated with a downturn in travel and tourism stocks. The stringency of international travel restrictions designed to combat the spread of disease remains at a high level in 36 out of the 48 countries. In six countries borders are closed for international travel, and 30 countries have bans on travel to/from high-risk regions. Other countries put arrivals from high-risk regions in quarantine or use screening.Developed countries are significantly ahead of the developing world in vaccination progress. Nevertheless, only few developed countries are close to reaching herd immunity (meaning 70% of population has been vaccinated or developed antibodies). In 16 out of the 48 countries, the number of vaccinations per hundred population is still lower than 40 — the level that seems to be required to subdue the spread of the pandemic to less than 100 new daily cases per million population per day.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Metals Price Rally: Five Indicators to Watch //knoema.de/mgftipf/metals-price-rally-five-indicators-to-watch 2021-07-02T14:20:26Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Metals Price Rally: Five Indicators to Watch

(18 June 2021) Uneven post-covid recovery, supply shortages, and tens of trillions of dollars of economic stimulus have resulted in a price rally in commodity markets, including prices for industrial metals. The question that investors are asking today is how long the price rally will last. The short answer: We don't know. Instead of making predictions on prices, in this dashboard we have put together a set of indicators for your exploration and analysis. Several of these indicators hint at a possible future reversal in price trends. Each of the five indicators on this page explores a different angle on trends impacting metals pricing:Global electric vehicle sales — reflects the speed of energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. IEA estimates that the transition to green energy will result in a multiple-fold increase in global demand for industrial metals and critical minerals in the next 20 years.Industrial production in China — indicates the state of demand for intermediates (including energy, raw materials and industrial metals) in the world's largest economy.Global trade movement (measured by global exports and container throughput) — represents the general health of the global economy and development of global supply chains.Gold to copper price ratio — an indicator that reflects the preference of investors between risk and defensive assets.Uncertainty index — summarizes the expectations of economic agents about short-term growth trends.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Orbisa Securities Lending Data: Top Short Interest Stocks //knoema.de/syodhx/orbisa-securities-lending-data-top-short-interest-stocks 2021-07-02T13:52:20Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Orbisa Securities Lending Data: Top Short Interest Stocks

(28 June 2021)Orbisa estimates that as of April 2021, the global securities lending market is at $26.4 trillion in lendable assets and $2.3 trillion in securities currently on loan. Securities lending allows investors to short-sell and provides investment funds with additional income in the form of fees they charge for lending securities.The Americas equity market accounts for the largest part (46%) of the lendable assets, while government debt represents the largest share (49%) of assets currently on loan.Information technology and consumer discretionary are the top sectors by the value of securities on loan.The energy sector has the highest utilization rate — the value of the security on loan as a share of the total inventory of the security. The visualizations below allow you to explore Orbisa's securities lending data from a variety of angles. The dashboard also contains a close look at securities lending among Japanese Automotive Producers as an example of Orbisa's detailed data.    The data on securities lending market activity available from Orbisa covers more than 183,000 unique securities, and data from more than 100 contributing institutions helps managers be better informed of supply and demand dynamics for the securities that comprise their portfolios.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
United States: A Price Storm in Used Car and Car Rental Markets //knoema.de/poxiyxc/united-states-a-price-storm-in-used-car-and-car-rental-markets 2021-07-02T13:48:55Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
United States: A Price Storm in Used Car and Car Rental Markets

(17 June 2021) With the US vaccination progress continuing and many anti-COVID restrictions easing, American's driving activity is recovering, and the increased mobility combined with stimulus checks, pent-up demand, and high credit availability have quickly translated into an increase in car sales. Many Americans wanting to buy a car are stumbled on car shortages at auto dealerships, though. This growing demand and lack of supply have already translated into sharp price growth in the used car and car rental markets. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the price growth for used cars accounted for about one-third of the overall increase in CPI in May. In March 2021, new light vehicle sales in the US increased to 18 million units (SAAR) — the highest monthly sales level since June 2005.US car manufacturers not only failed to increase production, but in many cases had to pause assembly lines due to the semiconductor shortage. Car imports from Canada and Mexico — two largest sources of US car imports — also declined.The mismatch between demand and supply brought domestic car inventories and inventory-to-sales ratio to a record low in April 2021.The shift of consumer demand to used cars and rental cars led to price hikes. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which measures wholesale pricing and typically runs several months ahead of the behavior of the consumer price index for used cars, suggests that the price of used cars will likely grow further in the coming months.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Africa's Demographic Boom — A Path to Economic Prosperity, or to Social Crisis? //knoema.de/sqjbhhb/africa-s-demographic-boom-a-path-to-economic-prosperity-or-to-social-crisis 2021-07-02T13:47:11Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Africa's Demographic Boom — A Path to Economic Prosperity, or to Social Crisis?

(16 June 2021) Africa is the only continent with a fast-growing population, and the only one where the population is expected to continue growing beyond 2050.  According to the UN's 2019 World Population Prospects report, in the next 80 years population of Africa will increase by more than three times — from 1.3 billion people in 2020 to 4.2 billion in 2100. In 19 African countries, the population is on track to double in the next 30 years, and in 28 African countries the population is expected to triple by 2100. Nigeria is projected to become the world's third most populous country by the end of the century, with 732 million people. The rapid population growth in Africa combined with the simultaneously increasing share of the population that is of working age provide conditions that can be the basis for so-called "demographic dividend": an increasing working age population and a low share of non-working population translating into rapid economic growth.  But this growth doesn't happen automatically. People don’t just skate into good jobs by being of working age, and smart investments don’t come from thin air. The most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are currently among the least developed nations in the world, according to the UN Human Development Index (HDI). In addition, a comparison between Nigeria (the largest African economy and the most populous country on the continent) and India — developing countries with equal per capita income — shows a slower pace of social progress (measured by HDI) in Nigeria over the last 16 than in India. In fact, in the last five years social progress in Sub-Saharan Africa, as measured by UN Human Development Index, has almost stopped. Lack of economic and educational opportunity could increase the risk that the population boom in Africa will end up not with demographic dividend but with increasing instability, higher inequality, social conflicts, and growing violence. Note: UN Human Development Index is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three dimensions.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
International Tourism in 2020: Thirty Winners and Seventy Losers //knoema.de/dbjbscc/international-tourism-in-2020-thirty-winners-and-seventy-losers 2021-07-02T13:42:39Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
International Tourism in 2020: Thirty Winners and Seventy Losers

(24 June 2020) While the worst economic expectations for 2020 did not materialize, the travel and tourism industry is not an object of envy with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic. A global lockdown in 2020 in the first wave of pandemic and long-term border closures following the upsurge in new COVID-19 outbreaks resulted in a 65% decline in world exports of travel services in 2020 compared to the previous year. Cross-country comparison based on the IMF's balance of payments data shows that the trends in exports of travel services, such as booking services, hotel accommodation, and financial and restaurant services used by travelers, were decisive in shaping countries' net trade in services in 2020.According to the aggregated balance of payments data collected by the IMF, world exports of tourism services declined by $1 trillion last year,  which accounted for 60% of $1.6 trillion drop in total world services exports.Not all countries were hit equally by the decline in the world travel and tourism industry. From the 106-country data sample for which IMF published data on trade in services by category in 2020, thirty-three countries that reduced their net imports of travel services (the purchase of travel services from other countries) gained from the global travel and tourism industry collapse: lower imports, in national accounts methodology calculations, means higher GDP growth. The economies of China, Germany, Russia, the UK, and Australia gained the most, in absolute terms, by the 2020 tourism crisis.For seventy-three countries in the sample, the global tourism slowdown had a negative impact on the national economy.  Spain and Thailand suffered the most in absolute terms, losing around $40 billions in net exports of travel services.In relative terms, the decline in travel services imports in 2020 added more than 1% to GDP for seven countries, including Iraq and Norway, whose GDPs increased by more than 2% due to the 2020 tourism industry crisis. Small island countries lost the most in relative terms: the decline in the net trade in tourism services in 2020 cost Aruba 39% of GDP, and Seychelles and the Bahamas lost 29% and 26% of GDP, respectively.The 106 cross-country data panel shows a strong direct correlation between change in net trade in travel services and change in total net trade in services. Data shows that per $1 decline/increase in net trade in travel services, total net trade in services on average declined/grew by $1.1.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
A Decade of Deteriorating Global Peace //knoema.de/womqiu/a-decade-of-deteriorating-global-peace 2021-07-02T13:41:18Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
A Decade of Deteriorating Global Peace

(30 June 2021) While it’s true that major powers aren’t engaging in the kind of devastating large-scale wars that rocked the first half of the 20th century,  data from the Institute for Economics and Peace shows that the state of global peace is deteriorating. According to the Institute's 2021 Global Peace Index report, between 2012 and 2021 the peace index score deteriorated in 87 countries (out of 158 for which 2012-2021 data is available), including the three major military powers: the US, Russia, and China. Ongoing militarization is the main factor in the major military powers' worsening scores.Over the past seven years, the United States has become one of the fastest militarizing countries, registering the third-largest change in militarization score from 2014 to 2021 after the UAE and Eritrea. China and Russia are 70th and 81st, respectively, in change in militarization over the same time period.Although the overall change in the global peace index from 2020 is relatively small, only .07%, the report notes that 2021 is the ninth out of the past thirteen years to register a net decline in global peacefulness. The Global Peace Index Report measures global peacefulness based on 23 indicators grouped into three domains: Societal Safety and Security, Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and Militarization. A lower score indicates a greater degree of peacefulness, while a higher score indicates less peaceful conditions.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Liquefied Natural Gas: Multibillion-dollar investments at risk //knoema.de/gmzgsof/liquefied-natural-gas-multibillion-dollar-investments-at-risk 2021-06-27T13:16:37Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Liquefied Natural Gas: Multibillion-dollar investments at risk

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) represents a significant component of the energy consumption of many countries and accounts for about one third of total internationally traded gas. Total global LNG production (liquefaction) nameplate capacity grew to 320 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), or 435 billion cubic meters, by the end of 2015 from 119 MTPA in 2000. The US shale production boom and recovery of global oil prices from 2010 to 2012 after the global financial crisis created an attractive environment for new LNG projects. An enormous 798 MTPA of new production capacity has been proposed globally in new liquefaction facilities (mostly in the US, Canada and Australia). Of that amount, 117 MTPA of capacity are currently under active construction. If implemented, these projects could not only make the US and Canada the largest LNG capacity holders and exporters globally, but also could create thousands of American jobs, lower the US trade deficit, and strengthen the geopolitical position of the US. In the most optimistic scenario, the US could become the world's largest LNG exporter by 2020, with about 200 MTPA of LNG export capacity installed. However, the recent collapse in global oil prices has made crude oil competitive again to natural gas in terms of energy equivalence and put many of proposed LNG projects at risk. As the IEA says: "Due to its capital-intensive nature, LNG industry faces an uphill battle. Those projects currently under construction today are set to come on stream broadly as planned, as large upfront capital costs have already been incurred. Beyond that, however, new LNG plants will struggle to get off the ground. Today LNG prices simply do not cover the capital costs of new plants. Several projects have already been scrapped or postponed, and the number of casualties will rise if prices do not recover. Final investment decisions (FID) taken in the next 24 months will determine the amount of incremental LNG supplies available in the early part of the next decade. If current low prices persist, LNG markets could start to tighten up substantially by 2020." Realistic estimates based on projects that are currently under construction bring down the US LNG export capacity prospects to about 43 MTPA by the end of 2020. That number assumes the shutdown of the 46-year old Kenai LNG plant in Alaska and the successful commissioning of 10 LNG Trains: Sabine Pass LNG (4 trains) and Cameron LNG (3 trains) in Louisiana, 2 trains in Freeport LNG Texas, and the Cove Point expansion project at Chesapeake Bay, Maryland (see the interactive map). Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 2015 Main Indicators; BP Statistical Review of World Energy - 2015 Bilateral trade; World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet); World liquefied natural gas (LNG) landed prices (U. S. FERC); U.S. Natural Gas, November 2015; UK Natural Gas Futures Prices;  IGU World LNG Report, 2015. Global LNG Liquefaction Plants And Receiving Terminals ◖Production and Trade◗      Liquefaction & Regasification Capacity      Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Rwanda Under the Presidency of Paul Kagame //knoema.de/afuuong/rwanda-under-the-presidency-of-paul-kagame 2021-06-23T13:31:19Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Rwanda Under the Presidency of Paul Kagame

On August 4, President Paul Kagame won election to serve a third consecutive seven-year term as president of Rwanda, a small African country with a population of 12 million. President Kagame first served as president in 2000 when his predecessor, Pasteur Bizimungu, resigned. Some consider him to be among the longest serving world leaders based on his initial service as Rwanda’s Vice President and Minister of Defence.A 2015 national referendum introduced a constitutional amendment that lifted the two-term limit on presidents of Rwanda, allowing Kagame to run for his third term. In a further proposed amendment directed specifically to Kagame, he could be eligible for two additional 5-year terms after his third term, extending his presidency to 2034.  Long-time presidencies are often associated with authoritarian regimes, repression of opposition, and single-party domination, among other democracy-weakening themes. Paul Kagame is not an exception. The international community has loudly criticized the president for silencing opposition and running a one-party state while simultaneously praising the sustainable economic growth and social development Rwanda has experienced under Kagame. Comparing performance among key development measures during the 12-year presidency of Juvénal Habyarimana (his second and the third terms) and the first 14-years of President Paul Kagame, progress across several spheres, including personal welfare, health, economic growth, education, and safety, is evident.While by the late 1990s Rwanda’s GDP per capita was trending downward, it rebounded under Kagame to increase by nearly 50 percent. Real GDP growth was also stable at around 7 percent compared to more volatile growth during the 1983-1994 period that averaged only -2 percent.Kagame also presided over a 53 percent growth in life expectancy at birth, a 50 percent decline in infant mortality, and education levels that soared from just 1 percent of the population to 35 percent.Where progress was not as significant is safety: though the average annual number of battle-related fatalities in armed conflicts decreased slightly, there were at least three years during which at least 1,000 lives were lost while Kagame led the country: 1998, 2001, and 2009. Explore today’s visualizations to learn more about these and other economic and socio-demographic trends.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Distance to Herd Immunity: Top World Economies in the COVID-19 Vaccination Race //knoema.de/qirfwee/distance-to-herd-immunity-top-world-economies-in-the-covid-19-vaccination-race 2021-06-22T10:21:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Distance to Herd Immunity: Top World Economies in the COVID-19 Vaccination Race

(20 March 2021) The pace of COVID-19 vaccine distribution is the main unknown in today's macroeconomic forecasts. In a scenario of faster and more effective worldwide vaccination, the global economy is expected to recover to pre-crisis levels sometime in 2021. Delays in vaccination programs, however, could contribute to the persistence of economic constraints in some countries and sectors, slowing the recovery of the world economy overall. Using data on population, COVID-19 cases, and vaccination progress, we analyze how far the 20 largest economies are from herd immunity today.To estimate the distance to herd immunity, we employed two hypotheses on what percentage of the "true" number of cases the officially identified cases represent. The optimistic hypothesis is that only 20% of COVID-19 cases are detected. This would mean that the "true" number of people who have already been infected is five times higher than the number of documented cases. Under the pessimistic hypothesis, we assume that 80% of the total "true"  cases have been identified.If herd immunity occurs when 70% of the population is infected or vaccinated, as many experts assume, Israel is the only country today that has reached herd immunity under either hypothesis.The US and UK are very close to the 70% threshold for herd immunity under the more optimistic hypothesis (that official COVID-19 data doesn't include 80% of true coronavirus cases). Under the pessimistic hypothesis, however, both countries still need to vaccinate many more people before they will attain herd immunity. Besides the US and the UK, no other economies among the top 20 have more than 50% of their population protected through vaccination or infection, even under the optimistic hypothesis.Some experts theorize that herd immunity will occur when 30% of a population has been infected or vaccinated. In this case, Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland would now have herd immunity under the hypothesis that only 20% of actual cases have been identified.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
South Sudan Situation Overview //knoema.de/huutvsb/south-sudan-situation-overview 2021-06-15T11:27:02Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
South Sudan Situation Overview

On 17 August, as Riek Machar, South Sudan rebel leader, and Pagan Amum, the head of South Sudan's ruling party, signed an agreement in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to end the 20-month civil war in sub-Sahara Africa's youngest country, South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, walked away, demanding a 15-day extension to confer with officials in Juba. South Sudan's civil war erupted in December 2013 following a political dispute between Kiir and Machar, his then deputy. Tens of thousands have died and more than 2 million have been displaced since the fighting broke out. The UN mission in South Sudan reports that it is sheltering nearly 200,000 civilians on its bases. The US Ambassador to South Sudan had issued an official statement three days before the deadline offering support to the government in Juba to assist in managing the implementation of a peace deal if the two sides signed the agreement by 17 August. Mediators had also, however, threatened international sanctions if the sides failed to reach an agreement on Monday. No sanctions have been announced, but the US State Department spokesman said that the US “would consider ways to raise the cost for intransigence” if President Kiir did not accept the accord soon. In today's Viz of the Day, Knoema provides available data on the armed conflict, refugee flows, and a broader look at economic conditions in the region. Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), August 2015, Merchandise trade matrix, imports and exports of total all products, annual, 1995-2013, IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Nigeria: Armed Conflicts, Military Spending, and the Economic Context //knoema.de/yfkakle/nigeria-armed-conflicts-military-spending-and-the-economic-context 2021-06-15T07:55:59Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Nigeria: Armed Conflicts, Military Spending, and the Economic Context

During the mid-to-late 2000s, Nigeria struggled to reign in the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, better known simply as MEND. MEND is a militant group based in the southwest of Nigeria in the Niger Delta, Nigeria's primary onshore oil production region.  The group sought increased economic benefits for residents of the Niger Delta from the country's oil production and reparations for destruction of the environment by foreign oil companies. The group's guerrilla warfare tactics and deadly bombings were only part of the reason it was so potent; the group also caused severe economic losses by disrupting or shutting in oil and gas production infrastructure and kidnapping foreign oil workers. A second violent group was developing its identity and reach during this same period: Boko Haram. Much of the world learned of the Boko Haram terrorist group after it kidnapped 276 school girls from their dormitory in the Nigerian town of Chibok in April 2014, but for years it has grown in size and capability. Formally established in the early 2000s, this Islamic extremist group gained new momentum and potency in the period 2009-2010 when it started an armed rebellion against the government of Nigeria.  Today both groups have contributed to escalating levels of violence throughout Nigeria, although many of the claims of responsibility by purported members of MEND are questionable. In 2014, Nigeria experienced a dramatic increase in fatalities, reaching about 11,000 deaths, according to ACLED estimates. In late January 2015, after the largest massacre by Boko Haram in Baga (1,700-2,000 killed), a coalition of military forces from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger began a counter-insurgency campaign against the group. By summer, it was believed that the Nigerian military had retaken most of the areas previously controlled by Boko Haram in the northeastern area of the country, however, the first quarter death toll still reached 6,109 fatalities. Violence in Nigeria must be examined in the context of the socioeconomic conditions that have only accentuated ethnic, religious, and geographic divisions in the country. Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy as well as its largest oil producer. Yet, astonishing levels of corruption have left it lagging in basic development and infrastructure in most of the country.Egypt has a population roughly half the size of Nigeria's and yet it has nearly five times the installed power generation capacity, according to data from the International Energy Agency and the World Bank.According to the IMF's 2015 World Economic Outlook, Nigeria also has the lowest total government expenditure as a percent of GDP in the world at only 10.58 percent. The average in Sub-Saharan Africa is 22.4 percent with some countries like Kenya and South Africa spending upwards of 30 percent or more of GDP. Nigeria, for all its violence, lags not only in socioeconomic-related spending, but also in military expenditures.Since 2009 when MEND signed an amnesty agreement with the Government of Nigeria, Nigeria has maintained military expenditures of about 370-380 billion naira, or 2.2-2.3 billion US dollars. In contrast, Algeria - another large African oil and gas producer with a GDP (PPP) about half the size of Nigeria's - spent $11.9B in 2014 on its military.Steady economic growth has also reduced Nigeria's military expenditure relative to GDP from 0.9 percent in 2009 to 0.4 percent in 2014. Nigeria now ranks 39th among African countries by military expenditures as a percent of GDP.  Sources: Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) African Data (1997-2016)  SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 1988-2016, Global Firepower, IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2017 , EIA International Energy Statistics, The World Bank World Development Indicators

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
World Crude Steel Production //knoema.de/caxfyqb/world-crude-steel-production 2021-06-04T08:35:30Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
World Crude Steel Production

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
World Steel Production and Prices //knoema.de/cyyrxug/world-steel-production-and-prices 2021-06-04T08:30:43Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
World Steel Production and Prices

During the last 10 years, a small group of emerging economies in Asia have supported the growth in total global steel production. While India and South Korea have contributed, production from China overwhelmingly leads globally. Accounting for half of global steel production, analysts worldwide monitor China's monthly production figures closely for signs of economic strength but also to gauge forward pricing expectations based on global demand and the production response of competing mills overseas.Between 2004 and 2014, China increased its annual steel production almost three times to about 823 million tons. At that volume, China's steel output was five times more than all of Europe, nearly seven times more than North America, and nine times more than the United States.In 2014, due to the cool-down in the construction boom in China, low domestic demand for steel halted China's output growth. As a result, prices for steel and iron ore fell significantly worldwide and continued to decline through 2015.  Turn the page to 2016 and the Chinese steel industry continues to dominate industry headlines. Total monthly production figures have repeatedly hit record levels, floating between roughly 69.5 and 70.5 million metric tons, but with a note of caution on the sustainability of this production volume. Production accelerated this year on the heels of a slight recovery of global iron ore prices. In December 2015, the price per metric ton measured at Tianjin Port, China, reached its lowest level since prices began their historic climb in early 2008.China's total production of 401.1 million tons during the first half of 2016 was about 0.6 percent less than the 403.7 million tons it produced during the same period last year. In 2016 and 2017 China maintained the status of the leader of steel-producing nations. Annual production for China was 870.8 million metric tons of crude steel in 2017, an increase of 7.7% compared to 2016.    In 2018 the number of Chinese steel production continued to increase and reached the record-breaking 928.3 million metric tons per year.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Stock Market Returns During Different Inflation Periods //knoema.de/vtzenie/us-stock-market-returns-during-different-inflation-periods 2021-05-27T14:42:52Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
US Stock Market Returns During Different Inflation Periods

(27 May 2021) US consumer price  jumped 4.2% in the 12-month period ending April 30, 2021, up from 2.6% 12-month growth in March. The increase marked the biggest jump since September 2008. Who will be the winners and losers if inflation of 4%–5% persists? To explore this question, we analyzed historical data on inflation alongside stock market performance for different sectors. We took the 22-year history of SPDR ETF* returns and compared this data with US consumer price index (CPI) inflation to calculate average quarterly returns by sector under different levels of inflation. The analysis revealed significant variation between sectors, as well as some similarities. The most comfortable inflation range is 1%–2%, with all sectors showing positive returns within this range. We found that 2%-3% inflation is also associated with positive returns in all sectors except for real estate. Within high and low inflation ranges, however, sectors performance varied:Since low inflation (0-1%) is usually associated with a contraction in aggregate demand for goods and services, investors tend to increase investments in defensive sectors such as consumer staples and health care — those with profits having little sensitivity to the state of the economy — during low inflation periods, driving these sectors' returns up.High inflation (4-5%) is usually a result of economic expansion beyond the economy's production capacity. In such periods, demand is high for stocks of cyclical sectors such as energy and materials, since their sales expand with the overall economic expansion. * SPDR is a family of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded in the United States, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. SPDR ETFs contain company stock from each sector included in S&P 500.  

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
China: Electric Vehicle Trends a Double Victory for Metals Powerhouse //knoema.de/wyrizwg/china-electric-vehicle-trends-a-double-victory-for-metals-powerhouse 2021-05-26T10:29:12Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China: Electric Vehicle Trends a Double Victory for Metals Powerhouse

(12 February 2020) Tesla by far and away leads in sales of electric vehicles globally and now not only has company CEO Elon Musk thrown down for a 40x increase in annual production but in doing so could escalate natural resource and geopolitical pressures. Electric vehicles (EVs) experienced record sales growth in the second half of 2020, and Musk is perfectly poised to use that momentum to scale towards his production goal of 20 million EVs per year by 2030. Aggressive production plans from Tesla and other EV manufacturers coupled with unprecedented growth of sales raises concerns, however, about the sufficiency of known metals reserves and current metals supplies.Estimates from MINING.COM show that if Tesla reaches its target annual production rate, Tesla alone will consume more than 30% of current global nickel production, almost 60% of global cobalt production, over 90% of global graphite production, and 165% of global lithium production. The obvious exceptions to this outcome include changes in metals production and/or required EV manufacturing inputs.Another critical unknown is the absolute reserve volume of key metals as opposed to known reserves and whether EV demand could outstrip reserves. Extrapolation of MINING.COM estimates to accommodate a fortyfold increase of global EV production from Tesla alone shows that the world would run out of nickel and cobalt. EV production requirements would require tripling known reserves of nickel and more than doubling known reserves of cobalt. Any EV outlook needs to also account for the geopolitics of business, particularly in light of the trade tensions between the US and China in recent years. China is not only the largest EV market but also the only country that appears in every top 10 list of countries with the largest reserves and production of metals currently required for EV manufacturing. This fact implies that China's natural resource base and production capacities make it the most sustainable EV manufacturer to met Musk's production aims.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic Hits New Infections Record Amid Slow Vaccination Progress in Developing World //knoema.de/ykkutic/covid-19-pandemic-hits-new-infections-record-amid-slow-vaccination-progress-in-developing-world 2021-05-25T10:22:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic Hits New Infections Record Amid Slow Vaccination Progress in Developing World

(21 April 2021) While some developed countries like the US and UK have already vaccinated about 40% of their populations and, taking into account the share of the population already infected, are likely close to herd immunity, some developing countries have been hit hard by the latest upsurge in COVID-19 infections. In the last seven days, the number of new COVID cases globally has exceeded the weekly total from the previous peak, in January 2021. The upsurge in India has contributed the most to the increase in global case numbers. Currently around 2,000 people in India are dying from COVID-19 every day, and the country is close to complete nationwide lockdown.As of mid-April 2021, only 12% of India's 1.4 billion people have been infected or vaccinated (in the optimistic scenario that assumes documented cases represent only 20% of actual infections). With its current pace of vaccination, the country will need several years to reach the herd immunity threshold.In the developing world, many countries are a long way from herd immunity: in dozens of nations less than 1% of the population has received a vaccine dose.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Who Will Be the First US President Elected by Mail? //knoema.de/sypndu/who-will-be-the-first-us-president-elected-by-mail 2021-05-24T13:22:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Who Will Be the First US President Elected by Mail?

(16 July 2020) In June 2020, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily in the United States was on the rise, surpassing previous peak figures in many states and triggering an increasing death toll in at least 10 states. Looking ahead to the November US presidential election, to avoid the possible COVID-19 health risks associated with large crowds at polling places, many states are preparing for an increase in vote-by-mail, leading us to wonder whether the US president elected in 2020 will become the first president elected mostly by mail. According to data from the midterm November 2018 elections, almost a quarter of all US voters voted by mail. In more than half the the so-called 'swing states' early voting and voting by mail are already more popular than is true for the nation on average.The increasing role of vote-by-mail method will be under intense scrutiny as it gains in popularity based on a number of factors, including questions about the availability among the 50 states, balloting operations, potential political consequences based on voters' adoption of this approach, and whether the use of mail ballots increases electoral fraud.   Definitions: All-mail elections states: States that conduct all elections with a by mail option. While “all-mail elections” means that every registered voter receives a ballot by mail, this does not preclude in-person voting opportunities on and/or before election day.  No Excuse/absentee mail ballot voting states: Voters have the option to cast a ballot by mail without a documented excuse.  Absentee-excuse required states: States without the option to vote early and those that require voters to provide an excuse for voting absentee.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Bitcoin Energy Requirements Climbing //knoema.de/suxqfz/bitcoin-energy-requirements-climbing 2021-05-13T08:11:43Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Bitcoin Energy Requirements Climbing

(29 April 2021) The volume of electricity consumed by bitcoin mining continues to grow globally, approaching the levels of energy consumption of some of the world's larger economies and bringing the environmental sustainability of the cryptocurrency into question. Tesla, which bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in January, causing the price to surge to more than $55,000, became a target of bitcoin critics who say the step undermines the car company's environmental image.According to Digiconomist, a platform dedicated to exposing unintended consequences of digital trends, one bitcoin transaction required 427 kWh of electricity in 2019, which could power an average home for more than two months or run 200 average cycles of a washing machine. By 2021, consumption had increased 2.5 times, reaching 1066 kWh per transaction. Digiconomist estimates that the whole bitcoin network currently consumes around 102 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year — roughly the equivalent of the annual electricity generation of Kazakhstan in 2019 (the latest year for which data is available).Cambridge University's Centre for Alternative Finance gives an even higher estimate, calculating that the bitcoin network is currently consuming energy at levels that could equate to up to 144 TWh of electricity annually. This level of consumption exceeds the 2019 power needs of countries like the Netherlands (111 TWh), Norway (124 TWh), and Sweden (132 TWh). By this estimate, if bitcoin were a country, it would be on the list of the world's 30 most energy-consuming nations.Cambridge also finds most bitcoin mining takes place in China, where 67% of energy generation is based on fossil fuels — primarily coal.The large power requirement for digital currency mining is deliberate, designed to increase the cost of fraudulent transactions and deter misuse of the currency. But what is mining, why is it done, and why are the power requirements escalating?Unlike fiat currencies issued by governments, bitcoin “currency” is issued based on “miners” using specialized computers and software to solve mathematical problems and earn bitcoins in exchange. In addition, its supply — like mined minerals, such as gold — is finite: 21 million is the maximum bitcoins that will ever exist, according to the anonymous bitcoin founder known as Satoshi Nakamoto.Bitcoins are mined by generating “blocks,” or transactions, and verifying the transactions using energy-intensive algorithms. Miners need to find the correct hash every time they want to add a new block into the blockchain. The miner who finds the solution first earns the new bitcoin. The probability of solving a problem is designed to be the same for each participant and is directly proportional to the power of the miner's computer. The resulting competition among miners leads to continually increasing productivity requirements for their computing systems, driving up per-transaction power requirements. 

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
50 States (and Counties) Divided: COVID-19 Cases and Testing Centers //knoema.de/dzagmyc/50-states-and-counties-divided-covid-19-cases-and-testing-centers 2021-05-11T17:31:12Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
50 States (and Counties) Divided: COVID-19 Cases and Testing Centers

(26 May 2020)  COVID-19 response in any country with a population size and dispersion like the United States, China, and Russia, brings inherent challenges that are only aggravated by the digital divide, logistical realities, and social attitudes and biases. AllClear, a New York City non-profit dedicated to empowering communities with technology and data to overcome COVID-19 and get back on track, gives us an opportuntity for the first step in a data-based look into how the number of testing centers across US counties stacks up relative to population and COVID-19 cases to date. What does the data tell us? While in general, there is a positive relationship between the number of testing centers and population per county (as well as between the number of centers and confirmed cases), there is a huge dispersion across US counties. This may point to substantial differences in the capacity of testing centers - a critical gap in this data - or deficiencies in funding and resourcing for testing facilities as counties compete for state funding and states compete for federal funding. Following are a couple case examples we pulled from the data worthy of further investigation:Hamilton County, Ohio. With a population of more than 800,000 and nearly 2,500 confirmed COVID-19 cases, Hamilton county has one COVID-19 testing center. In contrast, similarly populated Snohomish county, Washington and Multnomah county, Oregon have comparable confirmed COVID-19 cases but 41 and 83 testing centers, respectively.Queens county, New York. As prominently covered in US media, Queens has suffered extensive community spread. With the second-highest amount of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US and the 11th largest population, Queens has only 34 COVID-19 testing centers. This is almost four times less than in King county, Washington, which has a comparable number of confirmed cases and deaths similar population total.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Forbes | Valuation of Major League Sport Teams Outperformed Equity Markets //knoema.de/ncvsbs/forbes-valuation-of-major-league-sport-teams-outperformed-equity-markets 2021-05-06T11:57:40Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Forbes | Valuation of Major League Sport Teams Outperformed Equity Markets

(30 April 2021) According to the average team value estimates by Forbes, the valuation of sport teams in the "big three" major leagues — the NFL, MLB, and NBA — increased 5% in 2020, despite the attendance bans on many live sporting events and economic disruption caused by COVID-19. Over the last decade, the valuation of the three major leagues has increased by almost four times, outperforming the returns on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average stock indices by 25% and 42%, respectively.  Experts identify television contracts as the biggest reason for the increase in major leagues sports team valuation in the 2010s. The beginning of the 2020s may be no less successful for the leagues, with growth facilitated by the ongoing adoption of legal sports betting in the US and cooperation between sports leagues and gambling operators.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
A Global Perspective on 30 Years of Deforestation //knoema.de/njjfurf/a-global-perspective-on-30-years-of-deforestation 2021-04-30T12:10:12Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
A Global Perspective on 30 Years of Deforestation

The first trees emerged about 400 million years ago. Humanity needs only about 18,000 years more to destroy them completely. This estimate is overly simplistic and assumes a “no change” scenario from current deforestation trends — an annual average loss of −0.13% — but it forces us to examine the data from a "what if" perspective, keeping in mind that forests are one of the most important natural filters and producers of oxygen.One person needs six to nine trees to maintain life, assuming that a single tree produces 100 kg of oxygen per year on average and humans require 740 kg of oxygen per year on average.Humans, of course, are not alone in requiring oxygen to sustain life. Other animal species rely on forests as well, both for oxygen generation and for habitat, and the decline in total forested area contributes to the extinction of animal and bird species. Since 1998, the number of threatened species of plants and animals has increased by more than 239%, from 10,533 to 35,765 species, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit was viewed as the turning point for global environmental policy, seeking to overturn disruptive ecological and environmental trends compounded by the industrial revolution and to spur development of national-level environmental policies to address emerging issues. However, the persistence of deforestation and the continued popularity of wood in building and manufacturing despite the critical volume of forest coverage needed for sustainability is (disturbingly) evident in the data.According to statistics from United Nations Statistics Division, a slightly greater share of countries reported a decrease in total forested area from 1990 through 2020 than reported an increase, yielding a net loss of 1.8 million square kilometers of forest area. Ninety-seven countries (40.6%) reported a total decrease in forested area during the 30-year period, whereas 90 countries (37.7%) reported a gain and 47 countries (19.7%) reported no change.Trends in forestry production indicate that production of roundwood increased 12.1% from 2010 to 2020, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Deforestation also impedes global efforts to halt the growth of total carbon dioxide emissions. When trees are felled, stored carbon dioxide in the trees is released into the atmosphere, where the CO₂ mingles with greenhouse gases from other sources and contributes to global warming.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Cannabis Industry and Marijuana Use Statistics //knoema.de/fcqzrt/us-cannabis-industry-and-marijuana-use-statistics 2021-04-29T06:04:31Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Cannabis Industry and Marijuana Use Statistics

(15 April 2021) On January 1, 2014, establishments licensed by the state of Colorado began commercial sales of marijuana to the general public, which led cannabis industry stock values to skyrocket by about 200% from January to March 2014 as measured by the MJIC Marijuana Global Index. Since then, 15 more states in the US have adopted the legal use of marijuana, with the New York becoming the 16th state and the nation’s second-largest legal marijuana market in March of this year. Moreover, on March 31, the Senate Majority Leader supported the initiative to legalize the market at the federal level. Gallup Poll Social Survey responses over the past twenty years indicate that support for marijuana legalization has been growing steadily in the United States. The most recent survey, conducted in 2020, finds that 68% of US adults now support legalization.  According to the 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, in Oregon, Colorado, Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Washington, Nevada, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and the District of Columbia more than 20% of the population aged 12+ years had regularly used cannabis in the previous year. Crime statistics from the FBI show that these states have slightly higher crime rates (measured as the number of crimes per 1000 population) than other states.  As more states move towards the legalization of marijuana, the cannabis industry continues to grow rapidly. The MJIC Marijuana North American Index hit a two-year high in February 2021.  

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
List of United States cities by population: Data, Map and Rank //knoema.de/rivfkve/list-of-united-states-cities-by-population-data-map-and-rank 2021-04-23T17:32:57Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
List of United States cities by population: Data, Map and Rank

New York with more then 8 million people (according to 2010 Census) is the largest city in the United States. Besides New York there are 8 US cities which population exceed 1 million persons: Los Angeles (CA), Chicago (IL), Houston (TX), Philadelphia (PA), Phoenix (AZ), San Antonio (TX), San Diego (CA) and Dallas (TX). Over 160 milion people live in 5000 largest cities of the US.  USA Population | China Population | India Population | Indonesia Population | Brazil Population Top 50 Cities in the US by Population Top 100 Cities in the US by Population Top 1000 Cities in the US by Population World Population Ranking

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
China Announcing the End to the One-Child Policy //knoema.de/mbvpyce/china-announcing-the-end-to-the-one-child-policy 2021-04-23T11:25:01Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
China Announcing the End to the One-Child Policy

Now, after more than three decades, the Chinese government is ending its controversial one-child policy. Originally implemented in 1980 to curb its rapid population growth, China’s one-child policy has witnessed a fertility rate decline from 2.7 births per woman in 1981 to 1.6 births in 2015. Those who backed the one-child policy claimed it led to 300 million fewer births and lifted 200-400 million people out of poverty. Yet, the one-child policy has taken a toll, with more than 336 million abortions and 222 million sterilizations having since taken place. Gender imbalance in China, with 115.9 boys born to every 100 girls in 2014, has led to increases in sex-trafficking and prostitution. The Chinese population is aging drastically, with an estimate of one in every three Chinese being over 60 years of age by 2050 and a dwindling working class to support them. The country is also facing labor shortages and slowing economic growth. Despite the move by the government to lift the policy, experts warn that it will take decades before the demographic crisis is relieved. In the meantime, social and health care needs for the nation’s elderly continue to grow. Today’s viz shows the impact the policy has had on China’s population and economy in the past and for years to come.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
IPR Strategies | Patents as a Leading Indicator of Company's Market Performance //knoema.de/dogpphg/ipr-strategies-patents-as-a-leading-indicator-of-company-s-market-performance 2021-04-23T09:15:04Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
IPR Strategies | Patents as a Leading Indicator of Company's Market Performance

(17 March 2020) By the time a commercial product is launched on the market, it has already been patented for several years. Since innovative companies are more successful in the market, patent data can be a key indicator of innovation activity and therefore of market performance. According to IPR Strategies, patent shares perform better than an index. Analyses of equal-weighted MSCI World Index shares overall compared with Patent shares (the top 30%, by patent leverage, of MSCI World Index shares with significant patent value) have shown that using patent data generates significant added value for share selection. IPR Strategies' patent data can also provide indicators of changing ESG performance, helping to reveal companies’ ability to offer sustainable products and technologies in the future. The MSCI ESG ratings measure resilience to long-term, industry material environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks. Approximately 36% of all listed companies own ESG-related patents. Surprisingly, ESG-related patents’ average value is higher than that of patents overall; it is also increasing, in contrast to the value of non-sustainable patents. The scoring of sustainable patents can also be broken down according to individual UN SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). 

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020? //knoema.de/vyqviac/how-deep-an-economic-decline-can-the-world-expect-in-2020 2021-04-22T11:23:44Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020?

For the first time during the post World War II era, the global economy is expected to shrink due to measures in force worldwide to suppress the coronavirus, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, 2020. In this edition of the WEO, the IMF shortened the forecast horizon to 2021 instead of the expected 2025 horizon and limited the number of indicators available in its statistical tables because of the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions. Following we share our 5 key takeaways from WEO April 2020:In the baseline scenario—which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020, allowing containment efforts to be gradually unwound—global GDP will decrease by 3% in 2020 compared to the IMF's January global growth projection of 3.3%. Compare this to the 0.1% contraction in global output recorded in 2009—a figure that technically is within the range of being written off as a statistical discrepancy—and you can understand how deep cutting is what some are now calling The Great Lockdown.Given the huge drop in production, unemployment is expected to skyrocket despite the fact that many countries have developed job-saving programs. As a result of a sharp jump in unemployment, per capita income in 9 out of every 10 of the 189 IMF member countries will decrease. In the US and Eurozone, unemployment will rise from 3.7%  and 7.6% in 2019 to 10.4% this year.Even in the fast recovery scenario under which world GDP for 2021 will increase by 5.8%, the cumulative global GDP loss over 2020 and 2021 could amount to $9 trillion, a figure that exceeds the economies of Japan and Germany combined.The crisis will hit the whole world but not all countries will experience GDP declines. Among the top 20 largest economies, four will continue to grow. In 2020, Egypt, Indonesia and—of global economic importance—India and China are expected to grow in the range of 0.5% to 2%.  The Great Lockdown will be the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Based on Knoema's past look at the accuracy of economic forecasts, the depth of the economic downturn in 2020 will not necessarily align with IMF predictions. For example, in April 2009 the IMF expected world GDP would decline by 1.3% in 2009. In the end, however, the global economy avoided contraction because of strong growth in China and India.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
H&M Locations Worldwide, 2008-2020 //knoema.de/psoqqgg/h-m-locations-worldwide-2008-2020 2021-04-16T10:59:21Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
H&M Locations Worldwide, 2008-2020

(7 April 2021) With its extensive business network, the Sweden-based multinational clothing retailer H&M has become one of the world's leading fashion companies. After a decade of continuous expansion, adding around 320 stores per year on average, the company's net increase in number of stores (opens minus closures) was only 108 in 2019, and in 2020 it turned negative. H&M had a total of 5,018 stores, in 74 countries across six continents, at the end of 2020.  In the last two years, openings of new locations, primarily in new markets, have been outnumbered by closures of existing stores, especially in European countries and the US. This trend is consistent with the company's strategy of promoting online purchases through its growing network of e-commerce stores and fixing the number of its traditional brick-and-mortar locations. The first H&M store opened in 1947 in Västerås, Sweden, and was a small women’s wear shop. Now, H&M has eight different fashion brands available in its stores worldwide. Since 2008, the company has added about 57,000 employees to its roster of designers, pattern makers, and other staff, increasing the total number of H&M employees to 110,000 in 2020. The number of traditional stores almost tripled during the same period, from 1,738 units in 2008 to 5,018 at the end of 2020. Today's H&M corporate business model emphasizes sustainability, a concept enabled by the company's global footprint. The company has moved from a traditional store expansion strategy towards online shopping growth and sustainability path performance. According to the company's annual Sustainability Report 2020, H&M aims to achieve full circularity and climate positive status by 2040, and become climate neutral by 2050. The company has also stated a commitment to  gender equality in the workplace and has successfully increased the share of male workers from 20% in 2008 up to 27% in 2019. 

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Number of Starbucks Stores Globally, 1992-2021 //knoema.de/kchdsge/number-of-starbucks-stores-globally-1992-2021 2021-04-16T10:14:35Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Number of Starbucks Stores Globally, 1992-2021

(29 March 2021)  Today Starbucks is the largest coffeehouse company in the world, with 32,938 retail locations as of the first quarter of 2021, followed distantly by coffee shop chains such as Dunkin Donuts with about 10,000 restaurants, Tim Hortons with 4,300 outlets, and Costa Coffee with nearly 1,700 stores worldwide. Starbucks was founded in 1971 in Seattle, Washington, and incorporated on November 4, 1985, to become the publicly traded Starbucks Corporation.Based on the company's positive, sustained operating results, it is ranked among Forbes' Top-500 world's biggest public companies.  Starbucks' international footprint has expanded to 24,058 stores worldwide since first expanding outside the US market in 1996, with stores located in three main markets: the Americas, which includes Canada, Latin America, and the US; China and the Asia Pacific (CAP); and the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The domestic market still represents more than half of all Starbucks stores; California, with 1,863 locations, has more stores than any other state.  Starbucks operates two types of stores: company-operated and licensed. Currently, the store count is almost equally distributed between these two types - 51 percent of stores are company-operated and the other 49 percent are licensed - even under continuous expansion. During the first quarter of 2021, Starbucks launched 278 new stores. The company's growth is bolstered by a low turnover of its stores. Only 443 Starbucks stores have closed throughout the company's history: 240 stores in 2009, the year of the global financial crisis; 42, in 2010; and 161 in 2011.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US | 2020 is the Deadliest Year in US Drug Overdose Epidemic //knoema.de/bzaifsd/us-2020-is-the-deadliest-year-in-us-drug-overdose-epidemic 2021-04-15T07:02:41Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US | 2020 is the Deadliest Year in US Drug Overdose Epidemic

(9 April 2021)  As the coronavirus forced shutdowns, the number of drug deaths in the US started spiking. The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that in 2020* the rate over overdose deaths in the US rose 25% over the previous year. Isolation, stress, loss of income and lower availability of support and health services during COVID-19 health crisis are thought to be the key reasons for growing number of drug overdose deaths.Drug overdoses killed an estimated 85,516 people during a twelve-month period ending in August 2020. Deaths from synthetic opioids, the highest contributor to drug overdose deaths, increased over 50% year-over-year.A state-by-state breakdown of CDC data shows that twenty states reported a 30% or greater increase in drug overdose deaths from August 2019 to August 2020. Louisiana and Washington, DC, recorded the steepest increases — 52% and 58%, respectively. * year-over-year in the 12 months leading up to August 2020.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic Has Devalued Online Dollar //knoema.de/dvkiamc/covid-19-pandemic-has-devalued-online-dollar 2021-04-15T06:26:28Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19 Pandemic Has Devalued Online Dollar

(5 April 2021) In 2020, for the first time since Adobe began tracking digital purchasing power, US consumers were getting less for their online dollars than they had the previous year.The rise in consumer demand and online sales in the second half of 2020, stimulated by US government spending, easing of monetary policy, and pent-up demand from the early months of the pandemic, was met with supply chain disruptions and rising prices.The online dollar continued to weaken in the opening months of 2021. In February, online inflation was evident in 13 product categories out of 18 tracked by Adobe. In the same month a year ago, online prices were increasing for only five product categories. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to stay well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the reverse in the long-term online pricing trend could be an early signal of accelerating inflation in the near future.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Tamoco Store Visitation Data: McDonald's vs Starbucks //knoema.de/ulaumqg/tamoco-store-visitation-data-mcdonald-s-vs-starbucks 2021-04-12T06:38:43Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Tamoco Store Visitation Data: McDonald's vs Starbucks

(1 April 2021) McDonald's and Starbucks are two of the most popular fast-food chains in the United States. California and Texas are the largest markets for both franchises in terms of the number of stores. This is not surprising, since these are the two most populous US states. But looking at the actual number of visits to these two brands — as tracked by Tamoco in August and September last year— gives slightly a different picture:California was in 12th place among all states by the number of visits to McDonald's, and in 5th place in trips to Starbucks.At the same time, Florida had the highest share of visits to McDonald's (12% of visits in all states) while Texas was the leader for Starbucks (11%).Other notable differences between the two chains in terms of the distribution of visits by states are shown in the chart below.Variations in COVID restrictions and infection rates between different states during the time period analyzed may be a factor in states' traffic levels. Note: The figures presented are not the total number of visits but only those tracked through geo-location data from cell phones. Tamoco collects visits by tracking 300 million smartphones worldwide and attributing the geo-location data to over 20 million points of interest to make better sense of how consumers behave in the offline world.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Nigeria: Rising Unemployment and Food Prices Ignite Social Unrest //knoema.de/jeyfune/nigeria-rising-unemployment-and-food-prices-ignite-social-unrest 2021-04-08T17:22:09Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Nigeria: Rising Unemployment and Food Prices Ignite Social Unrest

(15 January 2021)Rising global food prices, low local and global oil prices, and the high unemployment rate in Nigeria where 40% of the population already lives below the poverty line fueled record-high incidents of political and social unrest in 2020. While October was by far the most conflict-prone month, the year clocked in more than 1.5 times the number of conflicts recorded in 2019. And, while the world outside Nigeria may speculate automatically that Boko Haram is to blame, the terrorist group is responsible for only 30 percent of the uptick in conflicts.    The conflict has many costs, and 2021 will see these mature further in Nigeria as the government seeks policy avenues and external support in the wake of 2020. The economy is reeling from demand and supply shocks that have translated into stagflation - a decline of economic growth amidst high inflation and unemployment rate. During Q2 2020, Nigeria's GDP decreased by 6 percent and unemployment increased to 27 percent (compared to 23% in 2018).Headline inflation rose from 12 percent in May to 15 percent in November 2020, propelled by food supply shortages and increasing petrol prices. Given Nigeria's high vulnerability to global grain prices—net imports of cereals constitute 24% of production—rising global food prices coupled with currency depreciation disrupted domestic food supply.Demand was constrained by decreased household incomes caused by high unemployment (partly resulting from COVID-19 containment measures) as well as reduced oil exports and government spending. Supply was negatively affected by food shortages caused by rising food prices (a global phenomenon) and the depreciation of the naira. The government introduced a limited budget stimulus package (1.8% of GDP) because of Abuja's budget deficit and dwindling foreign reserves. However, due to the country's expansionary monetary policy, the overall economic response measures accounted for about 3 percent of the country's GDP during the spring-summer period. In October, when the protests became more frequent, the government increased the economic stimulus to 6 percent of GDP.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
COVID-19: Scientists Say Coronavirus is Connected to Climate Change //knoema.de/wnhchsd/covid-19-scientists-say-coronavirus-is-connected-to-climate-change 2021-04-08T14:47:46Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19: Scientists Say Coronavirus is Connected to Climate Change

(8 February 2021) Scientists at Cambridge university published research last month linking climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, but it may not be what you think. Early in the pandemic, speculation and initial research suggested a potential relationship between seasonal weather conditions and the spread of COVID-19. What the researchers at Cambridge have found is a link between shifts in global bat diversity, climate change, and the evolution or transmission of the two SARS coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-1 (the virus that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemic) and SARS-CoV-2 (the virus responsible for the COVID-19 disease).  The research from Cambridge shows that climate changes have shifted global bat diversity and distribution. Increases in the average temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere led to changes in the types of vegetation cover, which created favorable environments for many species of bats in Southern China and neighboring regions in Myanmar and Laos. Bats stand out in the animal kingdom as the leading carriers of zoonotic viruses, including an estimated 3,000 different coronaviruses (CoVs). Why does this matter? The researchers also found that bat richness has strongly increased in the likely geographic origins of both SARS-CoV-1 and 2. If you assume the warming of the Earth for the next century is inevitable, the next COVID outbreak becomes just a matter of time.The National Centers for Environmental Information estimates that the decadal global land and ocean surface average temperature anomaly for 2011–2020 was the warmest decade on record for the globe, with a surface global temperature of +0.82°C (+1.48°F) above the 20th century average. This surpassed the previous decadal record (2001–2010) value of +0.62°C (+1.12°F).

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Viscacha | US E-Commerce Sales: Target Example //knoema.de/hcfyagf/viscacha-us-e-commerce-sales-target-example 2021-04-08T14:46:46Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Viscacha | US E-Commerce Sales: Target Example

(3 March 2021)  COVID-19 prompted consumers to change their buying habits in 2020, shifting towards more online purchases. E-commerce lost some momentum by the end of the year, with online holiday spending declining on a seasonally-adjusted basis. However, data provided by Viscacha, showcasing holiday spending at Target, the eighth-largest retailer in the United States, demonstrates that online sales still outperformed in-store sales during the holiday season. The Viscacha data also shows a significant difference in the distribution between online and in-store sales for different product categories.The most prominent product category, toys, represented a significantly higher share of in-store sales than online sales during the holiday season. The top-performing products with the largest in-store footprint relative to online were Instant Pots and air fryers. Although these popular products are available online, their larger form factor may have made physical store purchasing more appealing to many consumers.The U.S. Census Bureau reported that US e-commerce sales declined in the second half of 2020 after adjusting for seasonality. This came after a surge of 30% in the second quarter. December was reported as the worst month in Q4 for non-store retailers (including e-commerce), who saw their seasonally-adjusted sales decrease 6% month-on-month — the biggest drop since 2018.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Metabiota: Global Disease Outbreak Tracker //knoema.de/etdnoy/metabiota-global-disease-outbreak-tracker 2021-04-08T14:45:01Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Metabiota: Global Disease Outbreak Tracker

(15 March 2021) At the very beginning of 2020, the novel coronavirus infection hit the world. Metabiota’s early warning system, however, had already detected the first signs of COVID-19 in late 2019. By early January, Metabiota’s team of digital surveillance experts and epidemiologists were collecting, cleaning, and structuring data on suspected, probable, and confirmed cases and deaths from dozens of different sources into a composite, best-in-class dataset. In a few months, the COVID-19 pandemic had spread around the globe, and after one year, the disease had claimed the lives of more than 2 million people.  Metabiota's data allows for comparison of COVID-19 directly with other epidemic events — current and historical.Data on disease outbreaks collected by Metabiota shows that case fatality rates from Ebola and yellow fever outbreaks in 2020 exceed the death rate from COVID-19 by 8 to 20 times. Thirty-seven percent of Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and over 40% of yellow fever cases in Nigeria were fatal, compared just to 2–5% of COVID-19 cases globally. Metabiota has been providing this high-accuracy, up-to-date data throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as on nearly every other epidemic event in recent years, including Ebola and yellow fever (represented below).  At any given time, the Metabiota team is structuring data on approximately ten unfolding events. This near-real-time data is continuously added to Metabiota’s historical database of infectious disease events—the most comprehensive data repository of its kind in existence. Note: The true case fatality ratio may be lower due to underreporting of cases. Case fatality ratios may vary substantially during an event, especially during the first few months of the event.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
WIPO | COVID-19 is Increasing Innovation Gap //knoema.de/adetcuf/wipo-covid-19-is-increasing-innovation-gap 2021-04-08T14:44:14Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
WIPO | COVID-19 is Increasing Innovation Gap

(24 March 2021) According to WIPO's 2020 Global Innovation Index report, Switzerland, Sweden, the US, the UK, and the Netherlands continue to lead the innovation ranking in 2020, with a second Asian economy—the Republic of Korea—joining the top 10 for the first time (Singapore is number 8). High-income countries held all of the top 10 spots again this year; however, China has retained its place among the 15 most innovative economies, ahead of some countries from the high-income group such as Japan and Canada.While the COVID-19 crisis has catalyzed innovation in many sectors, such as IT, fintech, health, education, tourism, and retail, the pandemic's overall impact on innovation activity has been negative. Average Innovation Index scores were lower in 2020 than in 2019 across all world regions and income groups.However, the pandemic has disproportionately hindered innovation in developing economies. In low-income and lower-middle-income countries, the 2020 average Innovation Index score declined by 2.5 and 3.7 points, respectively, compared to previous year. In high-income countries, the average score decreased by only 1.8 points compared to 2019. The growing innovation activity gap between developed countries and the rest of the world poses a serious threat to the goal of closing the income gap between high-income and low-income countries, which is a part of the global development agenda under the UN Sustainable Development Goals initiative. Notes: World Bank Income Group Classification Based on Gross National Income Per Capita: Low income -$1,025 or less; Lower-Middle Income $1,026-$3,995; Upper-Middle Income $3,996-$12,375; and High Income equal or more than $12,376.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Mass Shootings in the United States //knoema.de/jdcgxpe/mass-shootings-in-the-united-states 2021-04-07T05:48:10Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Mass Shootings in the United States

The conversation in the United States has returned to an all too familiar topic, “the latest mass shooting,” a reference to the attack by Stephen Paddock on an outdoor music venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on the evening of 1 October 2018. Paddock murdered 59 people and injured another 241 people. To date in 2018, the US has experienced 426 mass shootings, in which 362 people have been killed and another 1,289 injured.Data also shows that during the last five years, the deadliest states—California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois—also have the largest distribution of handguns. Regulators remain politically incapacitated by out-of-context pleas for protection of the 2nd amendment right to bear arms, heavy financial support and sway of the National Rifle Association (NRA), and a voters who remain concerned that regulations of guns will infringe on lawful use of guns.In the days surrounding the shooting in Las Vegas, publicity suggested the NRA and US government understood action was needed. The NRA and US legislators turned to discussions about prohibitions on possession and sale of the equipment used by Paddock to automatize his weapons while Congress also suspending deliberation about the gun silencers.Yet, the Administration also rolled back legislation requiring the US Social Security administration to report to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System the names of people with documented mental disorders. Does regulation work? Globally, the answer is yes. In the US, the answer should also be yes, at least if you look at the most recent data after former President Barack Obama announced in one of his first weekly addresses of 2016 new measures to increase background checks on gun buyers. The number of mass shootings decreased from 385 to 276 and the number of firearms permits was also slashed, though one could argue whether someone with an intent to kill would necessarily be deterred by a permitting process. Undoubtedly, regulations aside, the statistics in the US remain alarming.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
United States: Fewer Crimes, Not Homicides, in the Year of COVID-19 //knoema.de/rlehfbb/united-states-fewer-crimes-not-homicides-in-the-year-of-covid-19 2021-04-06T17:06:11Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
United States: Fewer Crimes, Not Homicides, in the Year of COVID-19

Current data on US crime rates is difficult to come by. Most data from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is only available through 2018, a few exceptions such as offense clearance statistics go through 2019, and for 2020, the year of COVID, you have to either reference preliminary figures published in September that cover January-July or bounce from metro area to metro area to find the statistics you're looking for. So, we did both! COVID-19's reach is well beyond health, hitting employment, education, and potentially even crime. According to preliminary data from the FBI, reported violent and property crimes for the first six months of 2020 have decreased compared to the first six months of 2019. Taking a more local approach, we found that while total crime also decreased in some metro areas as COVID took hold nationwide, the reduction was mainly due to fewer reported crimes such as larceny, burglary, robbery, and auto theft, the most common criminal offenses. In contrast, homicides, which typically constitute less than 1 percent of all offenses, have increased.In July, the city of Atlanta, Georgia, went into a state of emergency after weeks of escalating homicide figures: the total number of murders from January through July—when COVID-19 peaked in Georgia—was almost 60 percent higher than over the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the overall number of criminal offenses in Atlanta was around 20 percent less than the previous year.Similar pictures were observed in St. Louis, Missouri, and Denver, Colorado where the number of homicides were as much as 37 percent and 50 percent higher compared to 2019 during the COVID-19 peak period in July. In contrast, the overall crime level was mostly unchanged in St. Louis and about 12 percent higher YoY in Denver. You may wonder whether the increased number of homicides was connected with protests against COVID-19 lockdown measures that took place in April and May as well as Black Lives Matter protests that swept the country for the better part of May and June (and far longer in some locations). The data suggests otherwise given the relatively localized number of violent protests and the persistently rising homicide rates through August and September. Even in cities with prolonged protests, such as Portland, you can see below that crime rates in 2020 are below 2019 levels. That said, it is interesting to note that while the homicide rates have been on the increase, so too have background checks for firearms, with the year-on-year percent increase oscillating within the range of 20-40 percent from January through May to as high as 80 percent above 2019 rates in July 2020, according to the FBI.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Burundi: Humanitarian Crisis Deepens //knoema.de/azgffz/burundi-humanitarian-crisis-deepens 2021-04-06T08:12:51Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Burundi: Humanitarian Crisis Deepens

05 Jan 2016 - As 2016 begins there is still no sign of peace in Burundi. Positions are becoming entrenched, murders continue and the long-awaited dialogue between the government, opposition and civil society groups is faltering. Burundi's government will not take part in peace talks scheduled for Wednesday with the opposition, a senior official said, casting doubts on efforts to end months of violence. "No dialogue tomorrow neither on January 16 as many may think, because there has been no consensus on that date," Joseph Bangurambona, the permanent secretary in Burundi's foreign affairs ministry, told the Reuters news agency on Tuesday. The talks scheduled to be held in neighbouring Tanzania were announced last month as part of regional efforts to resolve a crisis triggered in April 2015 by President Pierre Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term in office - a move opponents described as violating the constitution. Since then, clashes between police and protesters and a series of attacks in the capital, Bujumbura, have killed more than 400 people. However, most of the human rights violations remain undocumented. "The Burundian government has made it impossible for any investigators to get access to the country in the last five or six months," said Phil Clark, a conflict researcher from SOAS in London, in an interview with DW. The exceptionally high number of refugees from Burundisuggests thatthe situation is muchworse and prompts fears of a relapse into the decades of civil war that killed tens of thousands of people. Since January 2015, over 230,000 people from Burundi (about 2.1% of  the total population) have fled to neighbouring countries (mainly Tanzania and Rwanda) with many others internally displaced. Sources: Armed Conflict Location and Event Datasets (ACLED) Realtime Complete All Africa, 2015;Refugees from Burundi (UNHCR), Apr 2015-Jan 2016; IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2015

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Did the World Become Safer in 2016? //knoema.de/qtvdkld/did-the-world-become-safer-in-2016 2021-04-06T07:52:42Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Did the World Become Safer in 2016?

News headlines around the world inundate us with stories about terrorism, conflict, social unrest, plane crashes, natural disasters, global economic crises and more, always more. One might even think that 2016 was the worst year ever for humanity. But, was it? At Knoema, we let the data speak for itself. We have collected the most frequently updated and the most up-to-date statistics from reliable sources to take a practical view of the state of the world and how it has changed over the last year. By at least some measures, the world ended 2016 better than it ended 2015, with at least one notable exception.   Pakistan. We do not yet know if the total number of fatalities globally from terrorism decreased during 2016 because the only comprehensive database on terrorism - Global Terrorism Database - has not released 2016 data. What we do know is that the number of people internally displaced globally due to conflicts decreased by nearly 60 percent last year. In 2015, conflict displaced 7 million people globally; in 2016, this figure dropped to 3 million, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.  We also know that the Middle East and North Africa combined account for roughly half of all fatalities from terrorism globally. A review of data from just one country in this region, Pakistan—one of the world’s worst terrorism affected countries—shows reason for hope. Data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal suggests that the number of people killed by terrorists in Pakistan decreased by more than 50 percent in 2016 compared to 2015, shrinking from 3,682 to 1,803 total deaths.   Africa, Asia and Europe. The number of battle-related deaths in Africa and Asia decreased significantly in 2016 compared to the previous year. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project—commonly known as ACLED—indicates that the number of fatalities in armed conflicts in Africa continued to decrease in 2016, with total fatalities falling 18 percent from 36,000 to 29,000 deaths. In 2016, there were several violent and deadly terrorist attacks in Europe, including July's Bastille Day attack in Nice, France, which generated extensive news coverage and social responses globally. That said, in 2015, terrorism-related fatalities in Western Europe constituted less than 0.5 percent of the total number of fatalities globally from terrorist attacks.   Police Shootings in the US. Last year, the media spotlight and the US presidential campaign highlighted serious social tensions over police shootings in the US, especially those involving black Americans. Data reveals, however, that the total number of people killed by police in the United States last year decreased slightly from 991 people in 2015 to 963 in 2016.   Plane Crashes Around the World. During 2016, the world experienced several heartbreaking aviation accidents, such as: the crash of the Russian Defense Ministry TU-154 into the Black Sea that killed all 92 passengers on board; the loss of 71 people—including 19 members of a Brazilian soccer team—to the LaMia Flight CP2933 crash in Colombia; and, the Egyptair Flight 804 crash into the Mediterranean Sea that claimed 66 lives. And, yet, stepping away from the headlines, we discover that fatalities from plane crashes decreased last year by 30 percent, from 898 total fatalities to 629, according to the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives.   Mass Shootings in the US.  Now we arrive at the notable exception: mass shootings in the United States. The number of people killed in this category of violent crime rose by 25 percent last year from 367 in 2015 to 458 in 2016, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Few are likely surprised by this finding. In 2016, the world witnessed the deadly mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, that claimed 50 lives and wounded 53 others; the attack in Piketon, Ohio, which killed eight, and so many more.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Network Readiness Index 2020: Digital Transformation at a Glance //knoema.de/ljisicg/network-readiness-index-2020-digital-transformation-at-a-glance 2021-04-05T13:25:40Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Network Readiness Index 2020: Digital Transformation at a Glance

Starting in 2001, the Global Information Technology Report series published by the World Economic Forum in partnership with Cornell University and INSEAD measured the drivers of the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution using the Networked Readiness Index (NRI). In 2019, the NRI was redesigned by Portulans Institute and its name updated to Network Readiness Index.   The 2020 NRI, the second edition of the renewed methodological model, places the main focus on Digital Transformation. The approach reflects a focus on effective integration of people and technology that influences our economy, society and the environment appropriately. The redesigned model ranks a total of 134 economies based on four pillars: Technology, People, Governance, and Impact.Technology. Technology is the backbone of the networked economy. This component assesses the level of technology that is a prerequisite for a country's participation in the global economy.People. The availability and level of technology in a country is of interest only if people and organizations have access, resources, and skills to use the technology productively. This component assesses the use of ICT by people: individuals, businesses, and governments.Government. The government component reflects the trust associated with security and privacy beliefs and the degree to which participation in the networked economy is regulated.Impact. Impact measures the readiness of the networked economy by assessing the economic, social, and human impact of participation in the networked economy.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
7% of Global Trade Was Held Up in Blocked Suez Canal //knoema.de/guedmjb/7-of-global-trade-was-held-up-in-blocked-suez-canal 2021-03-31T08:53:32Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
7% of Global Trade Was Held Up in Blocked Suez Canal

(29 March 2021) Poor weather conditions and lack of visibility resulted in a giant 200,000-ton container ship, Ever Given, blocking the Suez Canal for almost a week, from Tuesday, March 23 to Monday, March 29. Since the Suez Canal is the most important trade route connecting Europe and North America in the North and the Middle East and Asia in the South, the blockage halted a significant proportion of global trade until the ship's eventual release early this morning.The annual cargo shipped through the Suez Canal in both directions accounts for around 9%, by weight, of global seaborne trade, and more than 7%* of all global trade. The highest economic damage from blockage of the Suez Canal falls on Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Netherlands, China and Egypt—countries whose trade turnover through the canal exceeds 100 thousand tons per year.According to the Suez Canal Authority Annual Report, a total of 107 million tons of crude oil (equivalent to 2.2 million barrels/day or 5% of world crude exports) and 53 million tons of cereals (12% of global cereals trade) went through the Suez Canal in 2019.  *Estimates based on data for 2019.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Bitcoin Price from 2009 to 2021 //knoema.de/nmyfsf/bitcoin-price-from-2009-to-2021 2021-03-29T05:53:14Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Bitcoin Price from 2009 to 2021

See the Latest Data Insights on Bitcoin:Cryptocurrency: "The Digital Tulip"?Bitcoin Takes Gold Market as Prices Set New Historical Records   Bitcoin is one of the world's most popular digital currencies, meaning that it is exclusively created and held electronically. But, what do we actually know about digital currencies and the potential of these currencies to replace conventional money? Like conventional money, the major function of a digital currency is to serve as a means of payment, whether that is in exchange for goods or real currency, such as dollars and euros. In addition, similar to how a normal currency's exchange rate is set, the price for bitcoins - per the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBP) - is based on market dynamics and expressed as the midpoint of the bid/ask spread. Bitcoin’s current value against the US dollar is $8,165. The highest price for bitcoin since it was launched in 2009 was $19,497 in December 2017. After that spike, the price trended down to $6,603 in April 2018. Bitcoin's price is gradually rebounding, buoyed by increased demand for the digital currency in China caused by the weakening yuan: digital currency, like gold, is a refuge for investors in periods of uncertainty. While the flow of a traditional currency is tracked by banks and controlled by governments, the circulation of digital currencies is decentralized, a key factor that drives expectations for the spread of bitcoin to new markets and transaction types. Even though traditional currencies now exist primarily on digital ledgers of banks like bitcoins, the ledger for bitcoins has no separate owner or regulator. Instead, bitcoin is maintained and updated by bitcoin users on the basis of the bitcoin protocol. Since the bitcoin network is not controlled by a single institution, it has several advantages over government-controlled currencies. These advantages include:Limited circulation. The amount of bitcoins in circulation is limited by bitcoin protocol to 21 million bitcoins. In contrast, central banks have the authority to issue additional currency, which, if not accompanied by GDP growth, may lead to a surge in inflation and related economic problems. As of May 27, 2016, there are 15.6 million bitcoins in circulation with a total value of $7.4 billion.Low-cost, open access. Due to the absence of traditional currency regulations, a bitcoin address - analogous to a traditional private bank account - can be set up in seconds, is free of charge, and cannot be disabled by a third party.Quick, simple account management. Many banks and financial companies have announced new investments in virtual currency technology based on expectations that bitcoin transaction management and digital records will reduce administrative burdens and allow for more rapid transaction processing than existing systems. The simplicity of bitcoin has also proven attractive to the Swiss city of Zag, which plans to initiate a 6-month pilot program in July under which local citizens may pay for public services in bitcoin.  The anonymous nature of bitcoin, a byproduct of its decentralization, makes it a perfect tool for illegal activity. Examples include:Illegal drug trade. One of the most well-known examples of the use of bitcoins in the illegal drug trade stems from bitcoin-based transactions on the online drug bazaar Silk Road, which was launched in February 2011 and shut down by the US Federal Government in October 2013. Terrorism. Cyber terrorists may similarly use bitcoins as the currency of choice to receive ransom payments. According to a Cyber Threat Alliance report, ransom payments made via the bitcoin network to hackers through the CryptoWall virus are estimated at $325 million total.  The taint of bitcoin and other virtual currencies by criminals' use of the currencies in illicit transactions coupled with the anonymity inherent to virtual currency fuels skepticism that virtual currency will achieve the level of acceptance of traditional currency much less replace it. Without meeting the essential prerequisite of trust in a currency, the widespread expansion remains doubtful.   

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
QuERI International | Tarnished Globalization Dreams Extend Beyond COVID for the World’s Majority //knoema.de/nzsuayf/queri-international-tarnished-globalization-dreams-extend-beyond-covid-for-the-world-s-majority 2021-03-25T06:28:34Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
QuERI International | Tarnished Globalization Dreams Extend Beyond COVID for the World’s Majority

(13 January 2020)Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Knoema Holdings and its Executive Board. The global economic trajectory once COVID-19 vaccines are widely available and the pandemic ends appears much less promising for hundreds of millions of people than was true of the post-World War II recovery even despite the hyperconnectivity of global markets and populations today.Last year the World Bank warned that thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic for the first time in 20 years global poverty is on the rise. Between 2020 and 2021 an estimated additional 150 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty with daily income below $1.90 per day.The latest estimates based on modeling from QuERI back up the World Bank findings and show that in the post-COVID globalized order, persistent and growing poverty will set the stage for increasingly difficult social. economic, and political crises that will accompany climate change, food insecurity, and mass migration. The world has a short window to solve the problems that uncontrolled development in the decades of globalization has caused. Closing the gap for many of these poor countries is critical not just to their futures but to all.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US Weekly Jobless Claims //knoema.de/deqfocg/us-weekly-jobless-claims 2021-03-19T15:53:03Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US Weekly Jobless Claims

The number of new jobless claims reported weekly to the U.S. Department of Labor is considered a leading forward indicator for jobs growth in the US labor market and is thereby linked to expectations for economic growth and potential moves by the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. According to the most recent data:For the week ended June 29, the number of initial jobless claims - e.g. new jobless claims - decreased by 8,000 to 221,000. However, 4-weeks moving average, which smoothes fluctuations, indicates a small increase in jobless claims.The total number of persons receiving unemployment benefits - e.g. "continued claims" or "insured unemployment" - also decreased by 8,000 to 1,686,000. Despite the number of people filing applications for unemployment benefits decreased slightly last week, the numbers continue to rise since late 2018. So, if in 2016-2018 years, jobless claims decreased on average by around 500 persons each week, in 2019, they started to increase by around 250 persons weekly. This trend may indicate that the period of historically low unemployment comes to an end and economic growth shifts into a lower gear. This may result in the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in its July meeting.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Most Welcoming Countries //knoema.de/bltdeae/the-most-welcoming-countries 2021-03-19T13:50:13Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
The Most Welcoming Countries

Modern and legacy political and military relationships, business investment, and other factors weigh on the power of one’s passport, making the list of least and most welcoming countries globally highly dependent on your citizenship. For example, a German passport holder gains access to more countries than travelers on Chinese or Senegalese passports. However, that same German passport holder cannot visit Equatorial Guinea without a visa while a Chinese passport holder may enter. No matter your nationality, 11 countries will welcome you without a visa, making these countries the “most welcoming”, according to the Arton Capital's Passport Index. The list of most welcoming countries is dominated by African nations. Despite visa-free access, only four—Cote d'Ivoire, Mozambique and Maldives—are relatively frequently visited by tourists. Each has more than 1 million international tourist arrivals per year, which ranks them among the top 100 destinations in the world.On the flip side, think twice before booking tickets to Afghanistan, North Korea, Somalia, Syria, or Turkmenistan without a visa or other special documents (such as a diplomatic mission). You could add Angola to this club as well; only citizens of Namibia may enter without a visa or other official permission. How powerful is your passport? Explore the power of your passport here.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
SimilarWeb | Sector Intelligence Heatmap //knoema.de/afikxze/similarweb-sector-intelligence-heatmap 2021-03-18T13:38:47Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
SimilarWeb | Sector Intelligence Heatmap

(4 March 2021)  The November 2020 through February 2021 period featured in the heat map below highlights the vulnerability of specific sectors to COVID-19 economic dynamics. Airlines, department stores, live events, and cruise lines have each been uniquely affected by restrictions on social activity, travel, and operations and have decelerated compared to the average baseline.   Select another country from the dropdown menu below to examine other regions of interest.  Or, click on a sector and scroll down to view its normalized Principal Component Analysis Index performance over time.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Cryptocurrency: "The Digital Tulip"? //knoema.de/vwqbwsd/cryptocurrency-the-digital-tulip 2021-02-25T10:30:05Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Cryptocurrency: "The Digital Tulip"?

(22 February 2021) During the last five months, the price of Bitcoin increased more than five times - from $10,000 to over $50,000 while the global cryptocurrency market capitalization topped $1.7 trillion. When it comes to traditional assets, such a rapid rise in the value of an asset typically indicates the emergence of a financial bubble. But, what about cryptocurrencies?Against the tsunami of cryptocurrencies' market capitalization increase, financial bubbles of the past look like small and mid-size waves, historically adding 40 to 440 percent to the asset value. The value of global cryptocurrency markets increased almost 900% from March 2020 to today.When do bubbles usually reach their peaks? In looking at past bubbles,  the longest time period is four years with an elongated period experienced by the real assets markets. If the cryptocurrency bubble is compared with digital asset bubbles, like the Dotcom and Biotech bubbles, it may peak 13-21 months after the bubble started to blow or between March and December 2021. Is this time different? Well, we don't know the answer. Since the famous "tulip mania" bubble in 1636-37 economists have not yet found reliable tools for forecasting bubbles. Super-easy monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policies in the US and around the world coupled with the accessibility of financial instruments and stock exchanges for a wide range of non-professional investors may make this "digital tulip" bubble different than bubbles of the past. These factors make it more difficult to predict how much the peak value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can exceed their fundamental price levels defined by the cost of coin mining and infrastructure maintenance.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
COVID-19 Boosts Stock Market and Gold Prices to Historical Highs //knoema.de/eexboqf/covid-19-boosts-stock-market-and-gold-prices-to-historical-highs 2021-02-25T10:27:15Z Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
COVID-19 Boosts Stock Market and Gold Prices to Historical Highs

(20 February 2021) Despite slack in recent economic indicators, stock market indices are showing growth and breaking records. For example, the index of companies with the largest capitalization, S&P 500, and the smallest, Russell 2000, have both achieved before-corona-crisis values for about half a year in 2020. Following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, these two indices required a few years to achieve similar results. This growth may be attributed to the infusion of money in the economy, and positivity around the COVID-19 vaccination rollout. Governments all over the world accepted measures to stimulate the economy during the pandemic, and the US is going to continue with additional relief measures. This situation can lead to an overestimated stock market, as measured by The Buffett Indicator, which shows a strong gap in the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP in 2020. Let’s look at gold prices in this context. Gold is considered to be an excellent defensive asset during recessions. After 2008, the price of gold continued to rise as the stock market approached its previous level. But in 2020, the gold price set a historical high simultaneously with the stock market: during the crisis, gold prices increased by 23% while the maximum yield was 30% during the year. This can be explained by increased demand for gold as a defensive asset due to market overheating and the increased uncertainty reflected in volatility. Also, demand for gold is supported by economic stimulation measures as it pumps up the money supply,  a potential factor of inflation growth. Since the US officially has no plans of raising the key interest rate in 2021, gold is may be used to avoid inflation risks.

Nikolai Kuznetsov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/6481950
Bitcoin Takes Gold Market as Prices Set New Historical Records //knoema.de/xkgnrfg/bitcoin-takes-gold-market-as-prices-set-new-historical-records 2021-02-25T10:22:23Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Bitcoin Takes Gold Market as Prices Set New Historical Records

(20 February 2021) The price of Bitcoin surged to more than $55,000 this week for the first time in history as large firms such as Tesla, PayPal, Mastercard, and BNY Mellon as well as major investment banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley showed support for cryptocurrencies. With increased demand from institutional investors and corporates instead of retail investors, Bitcoin's perception may be shifting to that of a more stable asset than it was a couple of years ago. On the other hand, some investors still consider bitcoin a speculative asset and think it may be one of the biggest market bubbles in history. Moreover, there is a perception that Bitcoin is an uncorrelated safe haven asset similar to gold. It may seem that the bitcoin-gold competition has started as the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, lost 20% in market capitalization since August 6, 2020, as gold prices decline while the Bitcoin market capitalization increased by 288% during the same period, increasing to $1 trillion. However, bitcoin's extreme volatility is far from the volatility experienced by a safe-haven asset. Bitcoin's 10-year volatility is 10 times higher than that of gold which has historically provided low volatility relative to many other real and financial assets.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
QuERI | The US Federal Debt Outstanding is Just a Number - 27 and 12 Zeros //knoema.de/pkahmsc/queri-the-us-federal-debt-outstanding-is-just-a-number-27-and-12-zeros 2021-02-15T06:10:30Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
QuERI | The US Federal Debt Outstanding is Just a Number - 27 and 12 Zeros

(02 February 2021) Based on the original paper by Dr. David L. Blond, Principle Researcher and President, QuERI-International. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Knoema Holdings and its Executive Board. In November 2020, US voters went to the ballot box and sent a Democrat back into the White House to stare down a federal deficit that grew under President Trump from $19 trillion in January 2016 to more than $27 trillion the day that Joe Biden was inaugurated. As you can imagine, the deficit hawks are out in force once again. The usual argument against more deficit spending, even in the midst of a disaster like the COVID-19 shutdown and prevailing economic conditions, is that the US can’t afford to spend that kind of money.   For true deficit hawks it’s this idea of repaying the debt, of the burden on future generations, that leads to the ideal of fiscal conservatism. So, let’s pull that thread, as they say: If the United States were to adopt that logic and start down this repayment path, given the way the US allocates discretionary and non-discretionary expenditures, what options are available today?The US Department of Defense is the largest single discretionary expenditure in the Federal budget, a $750 billion budget item and growing. If you were to cut that in half and use the savings to pay down debt, in addition to trimming around the edges of discretionary social programs to the tune of another $25 billion, you could maybe net $325 billion to pay down the debt (after accounting for social assistance for jobs lost to cuts in the defense sector.) But this is not enough to slow the increase in the size of the debt outstanding because we still have to pay interest.  If we turn to non-discretionary spending, we find that most of the money for Medicare and Medicaid goes to the oldest and frailest and the most costly to keep alive. So, what, we'd phase out government payments for people over 85? Gradually raise the retirement age and collect social security payroll taxes on all income earned without a cap, not cutting taxes? It is interesting how when you start to study the debt question and pull in the details over the past 40 years of debt, GDP, and interest rates, and match it against who was the US President at the time, everything becomes much clearer. So, too, does an essential point about the debt overhang and what it does or does not mean for an economy like the United States. Rather than focus on debt, we should also consider the relative usefulness of deficit spending, e.g the relative value of each dollar of debt to the change in GDP. Failure to spend is very likely more dangerous than spending too much. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Knowledge Index //knoema.de/aomssce/global-knowledge-index 2021-02-15T05:48:50Z Mikhail Zhukovskii knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1293430
Global Knowledge Index

The Global Knowledge Index (GKI) from Knowledge4All has emerged as a replacement to the World Bank's well known Knowledge Economy Index, 2012. The purpose of the GKI is to capture the multidimensional nature of knowledge (often linked to related concepts such as 'knowledge economy' or 'knowledge society') and help guide policymakers and researchers in their efforts to foster knowledge-based societies and bridge knowledge gaps that help propel development and economic growth.The GKI is a joint initiative between the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Knowledge Foundation (MBRF). The index measures the knowledge performance of countries based on each country's general 'enabling environment' as well as seven other components: pre-university education, technical and vocational education and training, higher education, research, development and innovation, information and communications technology, and the economy.Whereas the World Bank index was primarily focused on the components that directly related to the knowledge economy formation, the GKI goes beyond the economic aspect and encompasses the factors of education, economy, innovation, and the enabling environment.

Mikhail Zhukovskii knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1293430
Quiver Quantitative | WallStreetBets and Market Dynamics //knoema.de/amovfzb/quiver-quantitative-wallstreetbets-and-market-dynamics 2021-02-11T09:09:20Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Quiver Quantitative | WallStreetBets and Market Dynamics

(9 February 2021) In 2020, retail-investor representation in the stock market surged by 4.7% to a record 19.6%. Spurred by zero-commission trading and COVID tailwinds, this booming segment of stock market traders has reshaped market behavior. As a result, forums for financial discussion and inspiration have exploded in growth as well. WallStreetBets (r/WSB) is one of the most popular among these forums, with over 1.65 million followers as of January 15, 2020.  To investigate the relationship between WallStreetBets discussions and market activity at a stock-level, Quiver Quantitative has started scraping discussions on WallStreetBets and tracking how often different tickers are mentioned each day. Examples of GameStop Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices, which were among the most popular on r/WSB in recent weeks, can help to determine if there is a correlation between r/WSB discussions and share price. GameStop Corp. has experienced financial stress in recent years as the retail trends that had worked in its favor continue to decline globally. The company's total liabilities climbed 12.18% to $2.26bn from 2Q20 to 3Q20. Before May 5, 2020, r/WSB activity on GME had been dormant averaging 3.83 counts daily YTD. Shortly following this, several threads on r/WSB began to speculate on a GME recovery due to increased gaming activity and a large existing short position of 57 million shares. r/WSB counts would be amplified after an investment from activist investors and founder of Chewy (NYSE: CHWY), Ryan Cohen. Since May 5, 2020, GME has rallied 755.33% and the r/WSB discussion counts have averaged 55.34/day, a positive correlation coefficient at 0.688. In the early days of 1Q 2021, Advanced Micro Devices surpassed long-time competitor Intel in desktop CPU sales in addition to reporting record revenue of $2.8bn in 3Q20, representing 164% of growth from the same period five years ago. These factors have been reflected in the company's valuation as the stock hit a 52-week high of 99.23 on January 11, 2021. A comparison of r/WSB discussion counts and share price movements shows insignificant and for some periods even negative correlation. This occurred because once a stock reached a high enough market valuation the influence r/WSJ has on its price is reduced because it is weighted more. While there is no universal method of identifying actionable insights when analyzing r/WSB, discussions on the forum can serve as useful estimations of retail interest. Companies that have had exponential growth with help from forums such as r/WSBs are more likely to transition to an organic growth phase with more institutional investors and less volume. Keeping an eye on rising companies on r/WSBs could help identify overlooked market opportunities.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index //knoema.de/dljpsxc/global-sustainable-competitiveness-index 2021-02-08T10:59:02Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index

(3 February 2021) The competitiveness of Eastern European and some African countries may be underestimated while that of the world's top economies, like the United States and Singapore, overestimated. Wonder why? We'll give you a clue: sustainability. The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI) by SolAbility* is one of multiple measures available today to estimate the competitiveness of countries. Others include the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the World Competitiveness Ranking by IMD. As its unique feature, SolAbility claims that the GSCI captures real competitiveness by integrating three dimensions of sustainable development: society, the environment, and the economy. The GSCI may be better aligned with ESG investing as it takes into account the framework that enables and defines the current situation rather than describing symptoms. Comparing SolAbility's index and that of the WEF for 2019 reveals commonalities and deviations although, on net, the two measures are positively correlated.The top spots in both indices are dominated by European and, in particular, Northern European countries, such as Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.The SolAbility GSCI demotes some countries relative to their strong performances in the WEF GCI, notably including the United States and Singapore, which ranked 32nd and 44th, respectively. And, they aren't the only ones - Japan and Australia also underperform on the GSCI.In contrast, some Eastern European countries, including Croatia, Latvia, and Estonia, have stronger results in the GSCI, each ranking in the top 10 despite falling outside even the top 30 in the GCI. Some of the world's least developed economies are right there with them; Ethiopia, Bolivia, and Paraguay each earned considerably higher GSCI rankings than their GDPs or the GCI would otherwise suggest. *SolAbility is a Swiss-Korean sustainable intelligence think-tank providing expert sustainability solutions for corporate clients and ESG research for institutional investors.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Global Green Economy Index, 2018 //knoema.de/enedcw/global-green-economy-index-2018 2021-02-05T14:51:51Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Global Green Economy Index, 2018

While mainstream media outlets globally may be focused on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather, crop performance, and infrastructure resilience, economists and business strategists alike are turning toward greener measures and outlooks of economic performance. The 2018 Global Green Economy Index (GGEI) by Dual Citizen LLC is one of several initiatives—others include the Green Growth Knowledge Platform and the UN Partnership for Action on Green Economy—working to provide policy guidance, promote good practices, and generate and promote the data necessary to inform decisions on policies and investments necessary for accelerating the green transition. The GGEI 2018 measured the green economic performance of 130 countries across four dimensions: leadership and climate change, efficiency sectors, markets and investment, and the environment.In today’s Viz of the Day, we showcase the 2018 GGEI overall results—spoiler alert, Sweden is top ranked, again—with a special data feature on the performance of five the world’s largest economies on a specific dimension of the index: Markets & Investment.  Markets & Investment Highlights The GGEI 2018 results below show that a decade post the first global green economy initiative from the UN Environmental Program, even the world’s largest economies have made uneven progress toward the investments and policies required to support a green economy transition. Among five of the world's largest economies, Germany has the strongest performance in the overall index (ranked 6th), followed by Japan (19th), China (28th), the United States (31st), and India (36th).Turning to Markets & Investment, Japan notably outranked other large economies according to GGEI’s corporate sustainability measure. This calculation covers the policies of large market cap companies in each country in terms of (i) disclosing climate change data to leading certification authorities; (ii) the rating of companies by those authorities; and (iii) commitment to science based targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Unsurprising to those who follow the renewable energy sector, China outperformed in net 5-year installed renewable capacity. You can explore this topic further in our recent viz exploring renewable power installation globally and the phenomenon of negative energy prices in Europe.  

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
42matters | Impact of COVID-19 on Video Conferencing Apps Downloads //knoema.de/feywyyc/42matters-impact-of-covid-19-on-video-conferencing-apps-downloads 2021-02-04T05:52:56Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
42matters | Impact of COVID-19 on Video Conferencing Apps Downloads

(18 January 2021) On March 11th, 2020, the World Health Organization officially labeled the outbreak of the novel coronavirus a pandemic. In response, governments across the globe issued a variety of edicts aimed at attenuating the spread of the disease. However, as pragmatic as national quarantines may be, they nevertheless impose substantial economic consequences. App download statistics provide some intriguing insights into the ramifications of such measures. During an era of social distancing and “Shelter in Place” orders, technologies like video chat, instant messaging, webcams, and high-speed Wi-Fi give people the ability to stay connected to family, friends, and colleagues all over the world. Moreover, platforms like Microsoft Teams, Zoom, Skype and others enable businesses to remain productive while employees are required by law to work from home. For this reason, 42matters has kept an eye on the trajectory of video conferencing apps as the pandemic has unfolded.42 Matters analyzed app download statistics from the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, and confirmed the extreme popularity of video conferencing apps. In March 2020, video conferencing apps saw a record 58 million downloads - 23 times the download volume in January 2020.Zoom was the most downloaded video conferencing app globally. In March 2020, Zoom accounted for 8 of  every 10 video conferencing apps downloads.  

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Prosper Insights and Analytics | US Consumer Are Getting Used to "New Normal" //knoema.de/qdyufig/prosper-insights-and-analytics-us-consumer-are-getting-used-to-new-normal 2021-01-27T13:09:54Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Prosper Insights and Analytics | US Consumer Are Getting Used to "New Normal"

(Updated: 18 Jan 2021; Originally published: 15 June 2020) January 2021 consumer survey data from Prosper Insight and Analytics demonstrates that US consumers are getting used to their new lifestyles and have shifted from wishing for the pandemic to go away to just dealing with the “new normal”. Consumer Spending. US consumer confidence took a big hit in January as consumers looked ahead to the next few months. The US economy is sending so many mixed signals right now that you might be better off consulting a psychic rather than using traditional measures to get a handle on its trajectory. Consumer confidence dropped -12.6 percent (500 bps) from December 2020 to January 2021.Consumer Confidence. Unlike consumer confidence, consumer mood (aka consumer sentiment), increased 0.6 percent (60 bps) in January. Prosper’s Consumer Mood Index is a composite measure of 10 factors including how people feel about family, finances, health, relationships and more to gauge sentiment.Consumer Sentiment. In another sign of consumer schizophrenia, Prosper’s Consumer Spending forecast shows a slight downward trend coming out of the holiday season, decreasing -2.3 percent (-186 bps). As we are learning, consumers are finding some different categories to spend their money on. Consumer softlines are trending down while hardlines like home remodeling and related categories are doing much better.  Just hang on for a potential case of “consumer spending whiplash” as President Elect Biden announced an additional one-time payment to supplement the $600 that was sent out previously with an extra $1,400 per adult family member and more for households with children. Some economists are afraid this amount of economic stimulus may provide a big jolt, changing the current trajectory of the economy a bit too quickly. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Data Behind the 2020 US Presidential Campaign Platforms //knoema.de/yczvpjc/data-behind-the-2020-us-presidential-campaign-platforms 2021-01-27T13:08:57Z Ellen Goodwin knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1593850
Data Behind the 2020 US Presidential Campaign Platforms

Among the most pressing issues for the 2020 US presidential elections are healthcare, terrorism, gun policy, education, and the economy, according to an early 2020 Gallup survey. Around one third of American adults cited candidates' positions on these issues as 'extremely important' to their vote for president come November.   While COVID and the health, employment, and general economic and social crises that have ensued this year have almost certainly changed the weight and perspective people may place on any one of these topics, as a collective, they are representative fo the issues at the forefront today. In this dashboard, we offer some of the underlying data as it relates to Biden's and Trump's campaign platforms to help you better understand their positions versus the reality as captured by the data for the following topics:A wealth taxMinimum wageThe US-China trade warThe border wall with MexicoGun policyStudent loan debtMedicare-for-All

Ellen Goodwin knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1593850
Women in Parliament Around the Globe //knoema.de/fzwnho/women-in-parliament-around-the-globe 2021-01-26T20:43:52Z Balaji S knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000220
Women in Parliament Around the Globe

Politics has long been considered as a 'man's world.' Even today, women remain significantly underrepresented in legislative and executive branches of government globally despite research that suggests a strong connection between women in leadership and economic and democratic gains.Today one-fifth of the world's parliamentarians and less than one quarter of national leaders are women. Rwanda, Cuba and Bolivia have the highest share of women parliamentarians, however, Europe has traditionally maintained the highest representation of women in government. As of June 2016, the ratio of men and women lawmakers in Belgium, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland was about three to two.Countries of Asia and Oceania demonstrate persistent underrepresentation of women, despite progress made toward changing the political landscape during the last twenty years.  Statistics suggest that past gender disparities may be eroding as more and more women have risen to positions of power. During the last two decades, the share of women parliamentarians in the world has doubled, increasing from 10.8 percent in 1997 to 21.2 percent in 2016. On the whole, all countries to greater or lesser extents increased women's participation in their respective political systems during the reference period with the exception of only nine countries, among which North Korea performed the worst.African countries, especially Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Senegal, witnessed particularly significant progress in empowering women within government ranks. In the Arab States, progress has been uneven. While the United Arab Emirates and Syria made gains in 2016, there was no change in the male-female distribution in the parliamentary chambers of Kuwait or Qatar. In Kuwait, one woman has been the exclusive female representative in parliament for several years, while Qatar remains the only country in the region committed to a male-only parliament. Research supports a link between countries in which women are empowered as political leaders and higher standards of living. As such, the argument can be made that measures should be taken to encourage development of women into political leaders to build sustainable democracies and meet global development goals. Research shows a positive relation between the share of women parliamentarians and GDP per capita. In addition, as more women are elected to office, there is a corresponding shift in policy priorities toward family, women, and ethnic and racial minorities that bolsters democratic values.

Balaji S knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000220
Woodseer Global | US Dividend Forecast //knoema.de/kvoebxe/woodseer-global-us-dividend-forecast 2021-01-21T14:28:59Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Woodseer Global | US Dividend Forecast

Check out US corporate dividends forecasts in this interactive dashboard from our partner Woodseer. View sample forecast data and comparisons across the 30 companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We’ve paired the Woodseer dividends with stock indices to help you put this data into context.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Earth's Biodiversity Vanishing Under Human Ecological Footprint //knoema.de/mbqhhsd/earth-s-biodiversity-vanishing-under-human-ecological-footprint 2021-01-21T14:21:50Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Earth's Biodiversity Vanishing Under Human Ecological Footprint

(2 October 2020) After WWII the world entered an era of unprecedented economic growth. Three simple facts capture the magnitude of this change. Between 1960 and 2019 (1) the global economy increased more that seven times; (2) average per capita income and personal consumption increased almost 3 times; and (3) the world population climbed by more than 2.5 percent from 3 billion to 7.7 billion. But while we continue to measure the success of humanity in economic terms, some important components of human development remain hidden in the shadows. One of them is the environment.  To understand not just the final results of human activities (i.e. global economic growth), but the full price that humanity pays for growing consumption, environmental measures are required.  The environment provides not only the biological resources we heavily consume, but it also absorbs the waste and greenhouse gasses generated by the world's citizens and economic activities and that comes at a steep (and growing) cost.Data from the Global Footprint Network shows that the global economy consumes much more biological resources (the so called 'ecological footprint') than our environment can produce (in other words 'biocapacity'). The gap between society's ecological footprint and earth's biocapacity emerged in the early 1970s and has continued to widen since, with nearly 90% of todays' ecological deficit generated in Asia. The pace of decline of biodiversity raises red flags about the sustainability of global growth. Wildlife populations have already plummeted 68 percent during the last 50 years, according to the latest Living Planet Report. Living Planet data points to land-use changes, particularly the conversion of forests, grasslands, and mangroves into agricultural systems, as the most important driver behind the loss of biodiversity.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Coronavirus and the US Consumer by Prosper Insights & Analytics //knoema.de/rxqwxpf/coronavirus-and-the-us-consumer-by-prosper-insights-analytics 2021-01-18T14:21:09Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Coronavirus and the US Consumer by Prosper Insights & Analytics

(Published - March 18, 2020. Data updated - August 17, 2020) Prosper Insights & Analytics has 18 years of experience producing market leading monthly survey-based research of consumers' overall confidence. In its most recent survey, Prosper asked consumers about their concerns with regard to the coronavirus pandemic and the related cancellation of major events. You can explore Prosper's latest findings in depth below, but we'll give the spoiler: 82% of US consumers expressed one form of concern or another and believe that they will somehow experience direct consequences of the pandemic. Moreover, for the first time in six months there is a decline in observed consumer confidence.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Prosper Insights | Retailers Beware - US Consumers Changing Their Holiday Spending Plans //knoema.de/rrwrenc/prosper-insights-retailers-beware-us-consumers-changing-their-holiday-spending-plans 2021-01-18T14:17:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Prosper Insights | Retailers Beware - US Consumers Changing Their Holiday Spending Plans

(20 October 2020)  Despite unprecedented government stimulus packages in the wake of COVID-19, the latest data shows that consumer demand remains subdued and is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels ahead of the winter holiday season. "Consumers are taking advantage of a variety of offerings from retailers this holiday season including earlier sales promotions and shipping options,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Consumers are focusing on making the holidays special for others but are playing it by ear when it comes to those ‘extra’ items they might get for themselves.” As online sales have skyrocketed during the pandemic, it comes as no surprise that the majority (60%) of consumers say they plan to purchase holiday items online this year. Nearly all (91%) online shoppers plan to take advantage of free shipping, while another 44 percent plan to use buy online, pick up in store and 16 percent plan to use same-day deliver, according to the Holiday Spending Survey from Prosper Insights and Analytics. Additional highlights from Prosper's October consumer survey:The percentage of respondents that planned as of October to celebrate winter holidays in general decreased 4.1 p.p. from last year to 87.4 percent, which is a record low since 2007 when Prosper began collecting this data.While the average consumer's spending on holiday gifts for their family will be relatively unchanged from last year ($468), at constant 2007 dollars, that's actually 2.6 percent less than the 2009 winter holiday season, when the United States was coming out of the global financial crisis.The share of spending in the '$100 or less' bracket will increase by about 2 percent, displacing spending in the '$100-$500' bracket.On average a record 60 percent of all holiday shopping will be done online, a growth of 8 p.p. from the last year. The share of consumers who intend to do 100% of their shopping online also is on the rise, expected to increase to 8% in 2020 compared to 3.6 percent in 2019.Gift cards remain the most desired gift, according to respondents, although more people compared to last year said they would like to receive home decor and improvements items.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Sulpetro | Liquefied Petroleum Gas Plants Overview, Texas, US //knoema.de/jakinvb/sulpetro-liquefied-petroleum-gas-plants-overview-texas-us 2021-01-14T08:16:49Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Sulpetro | Liquefied Petroleum Gas Plants Overview, Texas, US

(10 December 2020) Texas is the leader in refinery LPG production in the United States. Learn about the facilities behind this key statistic and more about the Texas LPG landscape with the interactive visualizations below. This data sample from Sulpetro has been collected from Federal and State agencies in addition to oil & gas think-tanks, corporate financials, and other paid-proprietary sources to offer comprehensive insight into the Texas NGL industry.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Data Driven: The Most Popular of 2020 //knoema.de/ntmqfgd/data-driven-the-most-popular-of-2020 2021-01-11T11:56:49Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Data Driven: The Most Popular of 2020

As 2020 comes to a close, take a look at the 10 most popular Data Driven insights of 2020.  Enjoy the review!   Look back at the most popular Data Driven articles of 2017 , 2018 and 2019.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
SimilarWeb | Coronavirus Impact on US Web Traffic //knoema.de/kkkyfmf/similarweb-coronavirus-impact-on-us-web-traffic 2021-01-07T16:28:05Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
SimilarWeb | Coronavirus Impact on US Web Traffic

The coronavirus outbreak has affected American consumer patterns and business interactions. According to SimilarWeb, which provides web traffic data from various web services, web traffic patterns shifted immediately after the first reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases. These shifts give investors important information about the extent of impact on end users as well as about unique industry-specific formats of running business during the COVID-19 pandemic. While travel, airlines, and hotel businesses will be influenced more directly in the short-term, categories such as web conferences and product delivery could experience a watershed in terms of longer-term changes in consumer behavior patterns.  The analysis below covers the period from December 1, 2019 to April 2020, including traffic mobile and desktop web traffic originating from the United States. The growth rates expressed in this report are sequential year-on-year relative to January of this year. In other words, consider January the index, and all subsequent growth rates in February and March relative to the January numbers, which largely reflect a pre-crisis period for most of the United States.   Take a look at coronavirus impact on web traffic in different countries.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US-China Trade War: First Signs of Thaw //knoema.de/cvaoxgc/us-china-trade-war-first-signs-of-thaw 2020-12-30T05:35:01Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US-China Trade War: First Signs of Thaw

Weeks after US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary halt in the US-China trade war, the first positive signs of a return to normal trade relations are emerging. Last week, the China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) and fellow state-run Chinese enterprise Cofco bought more than 1.5 million tons of US soybeans, the first significant deal since the countries agreed to a 90-day truce from December 1, 2018, to March 1, 2019. The announcement caused a spike in soybean futures to $918.5 a bushel, the highest price since June.Soybeans were one of the most significant Chinese imports from the United States subjected to new tariffs during 2018. In 2017, China imported 31 million tons of soybeans from the United States valued $12.4 billion.Several rounds of tit-for-tat tariff escalation have passed since Trump triggered the trade war in January 2018 by imposing tariffs on products including solar panels and washing machines, followed with more tariffs in March, that time on steel and aluminum articles. All in all, during 2018, the US tariffs increased in scope to the tune of nearly $250 billion worth of US commodity imports from China.China, in turn, imposed tariffs on US agricultural exports (primarily soybeans), motor vehicles, and energy products. The United States and China are the world's largest economies, and some analysts attribute China’s economic and political rise as a contributing factor to Trump’s trade policies toward the nation. Since 2010 when China became the second largest economy (measured in current US dollars), the US GDP has increased by 30 percent while China’s has nearly doubled. Other factors, however, likely play an important role in US trade policy toward China including the bilateral trade balance and the influence of China's private sector regulations.Bilateral trade imbalance. The US runs a trade deficit with China: US imports from China are five times greater than its exports to China. China typically runs a trade surplus with countries like the US to which it exports manufactured commodities, but it is important to note that based on trade flows measured in value added roughly one third of this trade imbalance is contributed by other countries that send commodities to China for assembly and  final export to the US, according to Bloomberg.   Market restrictions. Chinese authorities use a variety of methods to protect domestic producers. In some sectors, for example, the government requires foreign corporations to take minority partnership shares in joint businesses instead of initiating greenfield investments. The resulting tech transfer to Chinese enterprises within the partnership can undercut the intellectual property protection of the foreign corporations. On December 19, the United States and China agreed that policies leading to more balanced trade are important to a de-escalation of the current trade row, but are they sufficiently motivated to do so?Even if the trade war continues, tariffs will have a relatively small direct economic impact on the growth of these countries' economies in the short term. The economies of the United States and China are not highly inter-dependent. China’s exports to the United States represent about 3.6 percent of China’s GDP, while US exports to China are only about 0.7 percent of US GDP.The bigger question on long-term economic consequences might be better answered by markets. If business confidence and financial markets are affected as a result of trade tensions, then China and the United States could lose 1.6 and 1 percentage points of real GDP growth respectively in the next two years, according to the IMF.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
US-China Trade War Global Impact //knoema.de/axpybrb/us-china-trade-war-global-impact 2020-12-29T05:25:41Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
US-China Trade War Global Impact

(3 February 2020) Last Wednesday (15 January), China and the United States signed 'phase one' of their bilateral trade deal to halt an immediate further escalation in tariffs by either country. Phase 1 does nothing to relax the tariffs imposed over the last couple of years to the detriment of global growth. By the end of 2019, the US and China had imposed 20 percent import tariffs on more than 60 percent of bilateral merchandise trade turnover, a reduction of global GDP growth in 2019 by an average of 0.5 percentage points.While the data below clearly indicates that the United States dug in to the detriment of Chinese exports to the US, Chinese imports from the United States already began recovering in late 2019 compared to 2018 levels. So, what does the Phase 1 deal promise for 2020? We expect trade uncertainty will continue weighing on global economic growth in 2020 as it has throughout 2019 but that the cost of the US-China trade war itself in terms of the global economy will be lower. Under the phase one agreement, China will purchase $200 billion worth of agricultural products and other commodities from the United States within the next two years, which is some relief. In exchange, Washington canceled a planned tax increase on Chinese goods, initially scheduled for December 2019, but will continue to enforce inflated tariffs on many Chinese goods. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Apptopia | COVID-19 Impact on Consumer and Business Mobile App Popularity //knoema.de/jtamxyf/apptopia-covid-19-impact-on-consumer-and-business-mobile-app-popularity 2020-12-25T10:59:30Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Apptopia | COVID-19 Impact on Consumer and Business Mobile App Popularity

(27 March 2020)  The force that is 'global social exclusion' is becoming a fatal event for some businesses that rely on in-person labor force and customers, while for others it is a chance for rapid growth and development of new services lines. As the coronavirus infections curve worldwide has shifted over recent weeks to become still steeper, entire companies have begun switching to remote work operations. Many industries, such as air travel, tourism, and retail are undergoing rapid business model adjustments to soften the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Below we share another lens on the reality of COVID-19 across industries based on mobile app statistics from apptopia.   Want to learn more about the mobile apps traffic and how it was influenced by coronavirus? Visit apptopia and make better decisions with mobile intelligence based on downloads, revenue and usage insights about the mobile traffic around the world.  

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Global Markets Moved by China Coronavirus Outbreak //knoema.de/lwdhxyc/global-markets-moved-by-china-coronavirus-outbreak 2020-12-25T10:57:26Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Global Markets Moved by China Coronavirus Outbreak

(3 February 2020)  As the World Health Organization has elevated the global public health threat level posed by the coronavirus to 'very high' (China) and 'high' (rest of the world), global economic health is also beginning to suffer. The number of people affected by the coronavirus globally may seem relatively small — just over 14,632 deaths and 335,953 people infected — yet without containment, especially to avoid spread to countries with weaker healthcare systems, the human (and economic) toll could rise rapidly into a full global epidemic.   As the second-largest economy in the world, the spread of the virus through China has already echoed in the global markets. On January 21, trading volumes on the stock exchanges in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 2-3.5 percent. A week later, as the number of cases continued rising, the virus reverberated on the FTSE 100 and with global oil prices. Prices of safer assets, such as gold, however, have increased.   As the virus continues its spread, concerns are only exacerbated with regard to China's economic sustainability, which is already stressed because of slowing GDP growth, African swine flu ​outbreak, and the trade war with the United States.  Hubei province, where the virus started,  is one of the largest provinces in China accounting for 4.3 percent of the country's GDP and a nearly equal share of the country's population. For comparison, the avian flu outbreak in 2003 affected much more economically significant regions of China — the Guangdong province and Beijing — which represented 13 percent of China’s GDP.  

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Basic Income: A Way Out of Poverty in a Time of Pandemic or Utopia //knoema.de/bgxyrtd/basic-income-a-way-out-of-poverty-in-a-time-of-pandemic-or-utopia 2020-12-25T10:52:35Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Basic Income: A Way Out of Poverty in a Time of Pandemic or Utopia

(23 September 2020) Sir Thomas More introduced the concept of basic income* in Utopia back in 1516. It's a simple concept: Eliminate poverty by guaranteeing a basic level of income. The New Jersey Income Maintenance Experiment (1968-1972) was the first basic income experiment and has since been followed by more than 40 experiments across 14 countries, including 16 ongoing, and another 5 experiments planned for 2020 or later. From an experimental perspective with small groups of participants (as opposed to whole economies), the data demonstrates that basic income helps to eradicate poverty and without many of the anticipated negative effects. The labor pool remained strong even with basic income guarantees, however, female participants did increase time spent on childcare while others pursued additional education.Beyond basic necessities, recipients spent additional income on consumer capital goods and assets, rather than on alcohol and tobacco as some feared would occur.In addition, basic income improved nutrition, health, and the reported general psychological state of recipients. Children benefited, in particular, with incidents of child labor and crime decreasing and primary and secondary education participation rates increasing. So, while the idea of basic income may have appeared on the public stage more than 500 years ago, we had to wait until the 20th century for broad political and public discussion to trigger experimentation globally. The findings from these experiments could not be more relevant than in this time of COVID as governments worldwide evaluate new policy approaches for economic stimulus and general resilience to avoid future economic slowdowns from shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic.   *Definition: Basic Income is a periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual basis, without means-test or work requirement. BIEN

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Economic Trends: US Overtaken by China as a Global Trade Power //knoema.de/hxkevje/global-economic-trends-us-overtaken-by-china-as-a-global-trade-power 2020-12-25T05:45:23Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Global Economic Trends: US Overtaken by China as a Global Trade Power

(14 December 2020) Back in 2018, with an eye toward protecting the domestic market from imports, improving the US trade balance, and creating jobs in manufacturing, US President Trump engaged in a so called 'trade war' with China, the country with the largest trade surplus with the United States, although it arguably originated with a much broader list of targets given that steel and aluminum were at the center of the new tariff rates. Nearly three years, one global health pandemic, and a lost election later, President Trump's economic pressure on China has not brought the US closer to the expected trade goals. To the contrary, the dominance of the US trade paradigm may have shifted in China's favor in a way that will realign global trade flows for years to come, especially in light of China's relatively rapid recovery from corona-crisis that stands to strengthen China's global trade position.In 2000, only 32 countries had a total trade in goods turnover with China in excess of their total trade with the United States. On the other end of the spectrum was the United States, which boasted larger bilateral trade turnovers than China with more than 160 countries.Fast forward to 20 years and China has totally changed global trade patterns. China's total bilateral trade turnover exceeds that of the United States in 130 countries, while the US surpasses China in only 58 countries.Among the world's largest economies only France, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Canada now trade more with the United States than with China, and the US advantage over China in India is at the level of statistical error. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Mass Closure of US Bank Branches | Driven by Fintech? //knoema.de/kxfrchc/mass-closure-of-us-bank-branches-driven-by-fintech 2020-12-25T05:43:53Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Mass Closure of US Bank Branches | Driven by Fintech?

(18 December 2020)  Almost 15,000 bank branch offices across the United States closed between 2010 and 2020, according to data from the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation. Given the rise of digital banking and surge in fintech services over that same period it would be reasonable to suppose that the digital revolution has been a primary driver behind the restructuring of the banking industry. Nevertheless, FDIC data shows that digital banking is likely more of a means of adaptation to hyper evolution in the regulatory environment rather than a driver of the transformation of the banking sector. 

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Legatum Prosperity Index 2020: Prosperity in Lockdown //knoema.de/gxumfad/legatum-prosperity-index-2020-prosperity-in-lockdown 2020-12-18T05:47:42Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Legatum Prosperity Index 2020: Prosperity in Lockdown

(9 December 2020) Governments across the world have introduced economic, movement, and social restrictions to combat the spread of COVID-19. While the efficacy of these measures is still an open question, as the number of cases and deaths worldwide continues to grow, the economic losses caused by anti-COVID measures are evident. In addition to the economic consequences, societies globally are dealing with the curtailment of civil rights and economic freedoms to further undercut prosperity, the very prosperity that according to the Legatum Prosperity Index has been built up to record levels during the last decade. The Legatum Institute defines prosperity as a state of the world in which everyone has the opportunity and responsibility to fulfill their unique potential and play their part in strengthening their communities and nations. The Institute's Prosperity Index consists of 12 pillars of prosperity, built upon 66 actionable policy areas, and is underpinned by 294 indicators. We were curious whether data would provide insight into whether countries that tend to score poorly on the Legatum Prosperity Pillars of personal freedom and governance, for example, would lead the way in pandemic restrictions while others with higher prosperity-related scores, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, and Argentina, would demonstrate more deviation in government response to the pandemic. As shown below, however, we found no direct correlation between the anti-COVID government response stringency, as measured by the Oxford COVID-19 Response Stringency Index, and overall prosperity scores.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Intoxicants usage among US students by grade, sex and race //knoema.de/dmufshg/intoxicants-usage-among-us-students-by-grade-sex-and-race 2020-12-17T22:34:34Z Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Intoxicants usage among US students by grade, sex and race

Drug use among American students is a persistent and serious problem in modern US society. The development of telecommunication services has seriously simplified the process of accessing drugs not only for adults, but even for children, and contributed to a shift in the use patterns of 12th, 10th and 8th graders who regularly use intoxicants.  According to the survey conducted by US National Center for Health Statistics, alcohol remains the most "popular" intoxicant among observed groups. The use of alcohol by the survey group, along with cigarettes, cocaine, and (for the most part) ecstasy, steeply decreased between the 1998 and 2013 surveys. In contrast, marijuana use among all age groups surveyed increased between 2008 and 2013 and, for 12th and 10th-grade respondents, nearly reached the record use levels reported in 1998. Notably, absent from the survey is a group of intoxicants extensively covered in US news media: prescription medications. Perhaps we'll see this apparent modern intoxicant of choice added to future surveys.

Alex Kulikov knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1847910
Energy Transition in Action: US Stock Market has Chosen the Green Path //knoema.de/xkpcpee/energy-transition-in-action-us-stock-market-has-chosen-the-green-path 2020-12-17T15:08:09Z Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560
Energy Transition in Action: US Stock Market has Chosen the Green Path

(2 November 2020) Contrary to reasoned arguments of those who believe that the peak of oil demand is still far ahead even as the likes of bp expect we'll never again return to pre-COVID global oil demand levels, the US stock market has already chosen the green path. For the first time ever, the market value of a primary producer of renewable energy has surpassed that of oil majors. On October 7, 2020, the market value of the world's largest producer of wind and solar energy—Nextera Energy—topped US oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron. One day before US election day, the market capitalisation of Nextera Energy amounted to $143 billion, compared to capitalization of $138 billion and $134 billion, respectively, for Exxon and Chevron.The data shows that for the past decade long-term investment in fossil fuels tends toward losses rather than profits. Every dollar invested in fossil fuels assets in the best case preserves its nominal value, while each dollar invested in renewables, such as Nextera, ten years ago today would yield almost six dollars.

Misha Gusev knoema.de://knoema.de/user/1000560