Innovation and Science Australia, Department of Industry

The Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) contains the Office of the Chief Economist’s forecasts for the value, volume, and price of Australia’s major resources and energy commodity exports.

Metallurgical Coal:Metallurgical coal prices have lifted slightly in recent weeks, but remain well below their level of mid-2022, with more decline expected. The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to average US$372 a tonne in 2022, but is expected to fall to around US$220 a tonne by 2024.Higher production in NSW and Queensland is expected to push up Australia’s exports, from 163 million tonnes in 2021–22 to 183 million tonnes by 2023–24.Australia’s metallurgical coal export values are forecast to track with price movements, peaking at $68 billion in 2021–22 before falling back to $45 billion in 2023–24. Iron Ore:The average iron ore price has fallen slightly in the December quarter 2022. Further outbreaks of COVID-19 in China have continued to weaken domestic demand, adding to pressures from the country’s residential property market. Ex-China world demand has also waned in recent months, as global construction and industrial activity has slowed.Australian export volumes rose by 1.2% year-on-year in the September quarter of 2022, with greenfield supply continuing to come online from major producers. Exports are forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2022–23 to 896 million tonnes, and by 2.7% to 920 million tonnes in 2023–24.Lower prices over the outlook period are expected to see Australia's iron ore export earnings ease from $133 billion in 2021–22 to $114 billion in 2022–23, and then to $95 billion in 2023–24.